West Coast Main Line

Lord Watts Excerpts

Monday 17th September 2012 Westminster Hall

[Rosie Cooper]

I am glad that the hon. Gentleman is here and is able to contribute to the debate. His colleagues, I believe, are away on business.

The Transport Committee is considering this matter through the work of its Rail 2020 inquiry. Several hon. Members from Lancashire, who are currently attending a meeting with Ministers on employment matters in their constituencies, wish, with your permission, Mr Bone, to speak later in the debate.

More than 170,000 people put their name to an e-petition, which was started by Ross McKillop, calling on the Government to reconsider their decision on the west coast main line franchise. That huge number of signatures, which was collected over a short period of time, reflects strong feelings and shows that the subject deserves to be debated in the House.

On the west coast main line, we are talking about 31 million passenger journeys a year and a £5.5 billion contract that will last for 15 years—that is this Parliament and the two that follow it. Hon. Members from all parts of the House have called on Transport Ministers to give Members an opportunity to scrutinise in more detail the actual process through which the decision was made. In August, my hon. Friend the Member for Garston and Halewood (Maria Eagle) wrote to the then Secretary of State for Transport, asking her to make a statement to the House. This will be the first opportunity for Members from all parts of the House, apart from the Transport Committee, to ask questions of the Minister, to begin to scrutinise the decision and to put their views and those of their constituents directly to the Minister.

A considerable amount of press coverage and opinion seeks to make the issue one of FirstGroup versus Virgin. Personally, I do not care much about the name of the company that provides the service. My priority is to ensure that the final decision, taken by the Department for Transport, is the best deal for taxpayers and fare payers. I hope to get from the Minister today the guarantees and reassurances necessary to be satisfied that the decision-making process is robust, so that the right decision is made with taxpayers’ money.

Given the determined efforts of Transport Ministers to avoid answering questions on this franchise decision, I do not begin this debate from a position of resounding confidence. We are told over and over that the process is rigorous, detailed and fair. It is as if by repeating that mantra we will all believe it. Yet there have been many complaints that the process does not even deliver against its own objectives.

The basis of the judicial review is that the Department for Transport broke its own rules when evaluating the bids, and we need to get to the bottom of that. There are those who argue that the entire franchise bidding process is flawed, and driven solely by the promise of large sums of money no matter what the cost, and irrespective of the stated objectives.

[Mr Dave Watts (St Helens North) (Lab)]

Does my hon. Friend share my concern that the Department for Transport officials, who looked at the Virgin contract when it was let, underestimated the amount of money that would be made by Virgin? Given that there is that lack of credibility, how much credibility does she place on the assessment of the First bid?

[Rosie Cooper]

I was not a Member of this House when that decision was taken, so was not in a position rigorously to examine it. Overall, though, I do not have great confidence in the various projections of the Department.

To continue, let us take, for example, the objective to achieve sustainable value for money. That is a stated objective, yet the process encourages risky bids because companies know that if their bid is £250 million more than any other bid their competitors’ bids do not go forward for further evaluation. I have deep reservations about a system that does not attempt to answer why one bid is so much higher than all the rest, and then does not quantify the difference.

--- Later in debate ---

[Rosie Cooper]

I agree, and again my hon. Friend raises points that I will return to later in my remarks.

It is absolutely for sure that we are dealing with risk—risk in the assumptions and economic risk. However, the only bidder for the contract that does not seem to have put up a lot of money is the company that has been awarded the contract. Again, I will return to that point later.

Economic assumptions are central to franchise bids. Governments expect rail companies to predict GDP trends over the lifetime of a franchise. As the Government cannot manage to predict GDP over the short term, how can we have confidence that any bids based on long-term projections have credibility? If an economist can tell me that those projections are credible, I suggest that the Government employ that economist as the current lot of economists cannot manage to.

[Mr Watts]

Is not the point that the Department for Transport has a long record of getting everything wrong? It gets it wrong on roads, on airports and on rail. The only thing that it seems will protect the Minister is that some penalties will be imposed if the contract is not delivered in the way that his officials propose. Should not we be transparent and absolutely clear about how this contract was let, know how any penalties are going to work and be quite clear that there will be no payment by the taxpayer if things go wrong?

[Rosie Cooper]

I absolutely agree with those comments, and those points are central to why I asked the Backbench Business Committee to allow a debate on this subject today. It is clear that there should be an open and transparent process. Perhaps we should be at the point now of comparing bids.

Let me return to my train of thought. There are other anomalies. For instance, the Virgin bid offers £133 million more in the period of the franchise up to March 2020. After that point, FirstGroup says that it will pay £1.23 billion more between March 2020 and March 2026. It does so based on a forecast of huge growth in passenger numbers, which comes at a time when there is no planned investment and when there will be huge disruption from the High Speed 2 rail project. So I ask again: how is sustainability at the heart of this decision?

Besides the computer modelling, there is also the anonymised scoring system, which I hope would prioritise sustainable value for money over high-value promises.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Watts]

One of the problems that we see daily is that companies can go out of business and then start again under a new name. If First did that, could it not overcome that problem by reorganising itself, developing a new company and then bidding for future contracts? I do not see how we could legally stop it from doing so.

[Rosie Cooper]

I think that is a real option. I understand from the grapevine that First does not intend to brand the west coast main line “FirstGroup”, but that there is a great possibility that it will be called Horizon. We might be in that kind of territory; I am not sure.

If there is a failure to reach an agreement before 9 December, it would mean instituting a directly operated railway service on the west coast, matching the current system on the east coast. The Government’s own guidance says that 120 days are required to get that kind of operation in place, and here we are 90 days away from the end of the current west coast franchise. Will the Minister enlighten us on how that will be achieved to ensure the smooth transfer of services to the DOR, if necessary? There is much to consider and address: safety matters; employment and contracting issues; even the simple thing of setting up a website to sell tickets. What would be the associated costs of the DOR in the initial set-up and the monthly costs thereafter? Those costs would be incurred by the taxpayer because of the Government’s failure to handle the situation adequately.

We must consider the staff. Come 9 December, they will have no idea for whom they will be working—FirstGroup, the DOR, or perhaps even Virgin. As part of any transfer of a franchise, there is a responsibility for the incumbent to work with the new operator.

--- Later in debate ---

[Iain Stewart]

I thank my hon. Friend and fellow Select Committee member for that point. There will still be a peak period and an off-peak period. My perspective is that we should be able to manage a more effective distribution. However, Mr O’Toole also made the point that he will not realise his ambition to fill the trains if fares are so high that people will not use them. His ambition is to achieve a modal shift from car and air to train.

[Mr Watts]

Perhaps the hon. Gentleman can clarify one point. The operators do not buy the trains; they lease them. If the increase in question does not happen, and Virgin is right and First is wrong, will First be forced to lease trains in the 10th, 11th, or 12th years—up to 15 years? Alternatively, will it just be able to decide that perhaps it will not increase capacity then, because there would be no justification?

[Iain Stewart]

I am not privy to the contractual details in relation to the trains. From memory, First would be obliged to continue with the existing Pendolino fleet, which is the mainstay of the route. The trains in question are additional ones, to meet the capacity. Things could easily go the other way. The trains that are being bought are six-car ones; if, suddenly, passenger numbers go up beyond expectations, it might be feasible to lengthen them, in the same way that the Pendolinos have been lengthened from nine to 11 cars.

[Mr Watts]

The hon. Gentleman is being generous with his time. If what he said is the case, the commitment to long-term investment may never materialise. It is one of the main planks of the argument for First, but First may not build the capacity because there might not be a justification for it. Does the hon. Gentleman agree that that is why it is important that we have more transparency, and can all see the details of the contract?

[Iain Stewart]

Perhaps it is a case of whether we see the glass as half-full or half-empty. I see an attractive proposition for growth in use. Why would FirstGroup, an experienced rail operator, want to tarnish its reputation by not delivering on what it promises? I will come on to one difficulty that I anticipate—or on which, at least, I would like reassurance. However, I think First’s ambition is genuine. As I have tried to explain, I think that there is underlying growth in the market, and that First will be able to innovate with new products to attract people on to the railways.

I do not want to continue much longer, because other hon. Members want to contribute. I have a concern about one aspect of the matter, and the hon. Member for West Lancashire touched on it. There will be considerable work on the west coast main line over the franchise period, particularly in the Euston area, if it is decided that that will be the High Speed 2 terminus. That may have an impact on the ability of the line to deliver the extra capacity. I should be grateful for a comment from the Minister, whom I welcome him to his post. He has long taken an interest in rail, and richly deserves his position. Perhaps he could say a little about how the upgrade work at Euston and elsewhere on the line will be accommodated, along with growing passenger numbers, over the period in question. I believe that there are solutions. For example, it might be possible to divert some commuter traffic on the London midland line into the Crossrail terminus while Euston is being upgraded, and for extra capacity to be created there. If the Minister would say a few words about that, I should be grateful.

--- Later in debate ---

[Derek Twigg]

We would have to explore the consequences to the rest of the rail users on the system, but it should certainly be explored.

I return to a key issue that several hon. Members have pointed out. A cloud of controversy has surrounded the back-loading of the premium payments to the Government in the final few years of the franchise, whereas Virgin pledged more cumulative premiums to the Government for the first nine years of the franchise. I know the west coast line well, not just from travelling it but from my experiences as the rail Minister, and there were major problems on the west coast line during the early 2000s, for various reasons. At one stage, it was almost in a state of collapse, and the train services provided were pretty awful. Income dropped massively during those early years, for obvious reasons: people were not using the service. Because of the problems, they were using alternative transport such as cars, planes and so on. Income jumped in 2004 or 2005, and the timetable came out and so on. As the Minister will be aware, in 2009, a new timetable was introduced with weekend running and faster trains, which I mentioned. Did the bid take account of, or did Ministers ask questions about, that unusual situation at the beginning at the 2000s and its impact on longer-term predictions of income?

I assume that High Speed 2 will have a major impact on Euston, unless the Minister can tell me something different. Has any care been taken about that and the possible impact on the west coast?

The other question for the Minister relates to the GDP forecast on which the bids were based. Will the Minister confirm whether the bidders went along with the Government’s forecasts—a major failing in recent years—or a lower forecast? That will have an important impact on the bids. Projections are guess work, but I am not sure—we have not seen all the details, because we keep being told that they are confidential—whether the details actually add up. There is no doubt that the line has the potential for a great amount of growth. A point was made earlier about capacity and future investment. I am slightly sceptical about High Speed 2, because it has the potential to have an impact on necessary investment in the west coast main line.

[Mr Watts]

Does my hon. Friend agree that it seems that the First bid will deliver premium payments at the end of the contract, which will mean that the Government will have less money to invest in the west coast main line in the early years? Is there not an argument for doing the opposite, so that we can invest to deal with the congestion problems we will face while waiting for High Speed 2? Given the fact that no one knows whether HS2 will go ahead, is it not crucial to invest early rather than later?

[Derek Twigg]

As ever, my hon. Friend makes an important point. One key failure of the system—I hold my hands up as a former rail Minister—is in being unable to get investment into certain franchises to improve rolling stock, passenger experience, gating and so on. Some companies that have won franchises have decided not to invest, for various reasons that we do not have time to go into.

As I said, all politics is local. Runcorn, in my constituency, has benefited significantly from improvements put in place in the past 10 years or so. I am concerned that we will not build on those improvements and, because of problems with the franchise, take a step backwards. What has happened in recent years is remarkable. Virgin has achieved a good partnership with Halton borough council, which has been crucial in the reconstruction of Halton’s economy. The previous Government’s massive £8 billion investment in the west coast main line, after decades of underinvestment by other Governments, was crucial in achieving the improvements we now see, and Virgin became part of that achievement because it ran the franchise. We have seen massive improvements. From Runcorn, it now takes just under two hours to get to London, with the fastest train taking 1 hour 50 minutes.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mark Pawsey (Rugby) (Con)]

It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Mr Bone.

I would like to speak about the importance of the rail connection to my constituency of Rugby. I am pleased to see the Minister in his place. He will recall, in his former role, standing on a drafty Rugby station platform months before the 2010 general election. The rail connection is of massive importance. We are in the centre of the UK and we benefit from the crossroads of the motorway network. We also benefit from the 50-minute journey time on the existing Virgin service from London Euston. That service has enabled us to attract businesses to our town, where we offer lower wages and lower premises costs than businesses based in the capital. It has also led to a large increase in the number of people who commute on a daily basis from Rugby to London. The quality of the service they receive is fundamental.

The recent history of the line has been one of substantial improvements in service from Virgin. I put on record my thanks, and that of my constituents, and congratulate it on the way it has improved. My predecessors as MP for Rugby would have had a far busier time dealing with constituents on rail issues than I have had. In fact, one of my predecessors, Andy King, the MP from 1997 to 2005, was instrumental in setting up the Rugby rail users group, a campaign body set up to deal with service problems. I often attend that group, but I am not told of significant problems or failures on the line. In fact, in the immediate aftermath of this decision being announced, I went on local radio and advised that there had been no complaints about the service provided by Virgin in the time that I had been Rugby’s Member of Parliament. Somebody got in touch with me to remind me that there was an issue, but it was a ticketing issue rather than a service issue.

We have gone through a very public tender process. We knew that the tender was coming up at around this time; it had been shadowed for a great deal of time, there had been lots of publicity and the requirement was known. When assessing this tender, the Department for Transport would have known that this decision would come under massive scrutiny. I am confident that such scrutiny will have led to the utmost probity in respect of its decision.

As hon. Members have mentioned, the Government have a duty to secure the best deal. They have invested £9 billion in the west coast main line. There is no use trumpeting big numbers if we do not get some benefit from that investment. It is important that we get the return not only to fare payers, as users of the line, but to the taxpayer more broadly.

[Mr Watts]

It is also the duty and responsibility of the Ministry of Defence to get value for money for contracts, but as we know that often does not occur. So what people want to achieve and what is actually achieved can be two different things. Does the hon. Gentleman agree that the GDP factor is crucial? If the GDP figure is halved, will First’s bid still be deliverable? If it is not, surely that may put at risk the whole analysis of this contract.

[Mark Pawsey]

I will come on to the First bid, including questions that other hon. Members and I have put to it about the accuracy of its bid and where its bid stands. I am not sure that making comparisons with other Departments in this debate is helpful, Mr Bone. We need to ensure that the Government get the maximum value for money for every item of expenditure.