EU Referendum and EU Reform (EUC Report)

Lord Watson of Richmond Excerpts

Wednesday 15th June 2016 Lords Chamber

[Lord Watson of Richmond (LD)]

My Lords, I declare an interest as high steward of Cambridge University. In that context, I was particularly delighted by the remarks of my noble friend Lord Taverne. I endorse the harsh reality that the pre-eminence of our science, and the pre-eminence of Cambridge University in particular in science, would certainly be damaged by exit from the EU. It is simply a fact.

With every day that passes in this European referendum, I am seized by the folly of the enterprise. It has been born of divisions within the Conservative Party, and its outcome, whatever it may be, will certainly not resolve them. Thus far the referendum has in fact exacerbated them. It started before the last general election, essentially as a tactic to outmanoeuvre UKIP and Eurosceptic activists in Tory constituencies. As such, it was rendered pointless by the outcome of that election—but the die was cast, the commitment was made and the outcome can deliver one of only two verdicts on the Prime Minister: he will go down in history either as the Prime Minister who took us out of Europe by accident and miscalculation or as a kind of Houdini who, as with the Scottish referendum, at the last moment escaped fate with a final flourish.

Is “folly” the appropriate description of this enterprise? I believe so. It is hard to describe it as anything else when Boris Johnson, the most conspicuous contender for the hollow crown, thinks that the prize justifies questioning the motives of President Obama’s interventions on the grounds of his part-Kenyan ancestry, or feels persuaded to claim that the European Union is an attempt to impose Hitlerian unity on Europe by other means. These are surely the cadences of folly.

If the genesis of this referendum lies in the long-festering blue-on-blue clash within the Conservative Party, it has now enveloped all parties, all parts of the United Kingdom, all the nations of the European Union and the transatlantic relationship itself. The principal consequence of the referendum is division—indeed, a welter of different divisions that collectively and cumulatively jeopardise to a real extent the unity of the people and indeed of our society. These divisions pull us apart, as an authoritative analysis published by the Financial Times on 2 June demonstrated all too painfully.

There is the evident division between majority and minority attitudes in London, and between London and many other parts of England. Then there is the division between sentiment in Scotland and England and, possibly, between opinion in England and Wales. Within the framework of devolution and the evolution of separate parliaments, there is the promise of further serious trouble ahead. Then there are the divergences between young and old, between better educated and those less fortunate, and between those more prosperous and those less so. Above all there is a psychological divide, as has been referred to in the debate, between optimism and pessimism.

Both sides can and do claim self-belief, and I believe that both share patriotism. But the prominence of immigration in this referendum shines a harsh and revealing light on the whole enterprise. The division here is more than a row about statistics; it is a thermometer taking the temperature of who we think we are. Of course, this is not unique to us: the Americans are torn by the issue of immigration and it lies at the heart of Europe’s crisis. However, is our reaction to reject international interdependence, build walls and draw up drawbridges? If it is, we are indeed at risk.

There is of course nothing wrong in facing up to fundamental issues, even if so often they are deeply divisive and painful. It is the process of democracy. But we should remain increasingly vigilant that referenda are not allowed to replace the power and responsibility of Parliament. Here again, folly lurks in the wings. The public have been encouraged by both sides to see the referendum as decisive, and historically it may prove to be so. But if decisiveness is assumed to deliver instant or even rapid change, the public will have been misled and indeed deceived. The excellent and worrying report of the European Union Committee on the process of withdrawing from the EU contains judgments that make a mockery of the expectations engendered by the referendum. First, as paragraph 15 says:

“There is nothing in Article 50 formally to prevent a Member State from reversing its decision to withdraw in the course of the withdrawal negotiations”.

Secondly, paragraphs 31 and 34 of the report state that if a majority on 23 June is for Brexit, the United Kingdom will need to negotiate two treaties, one for withdrawal and, in parallel, one to establish our future relationship with the European Union, including terms of access to the single market. Given that the single market is where half our exports go and that it is vital for attracting inward investment from countries such as the States, India and South Korea, the second, parallel negotiation is vital to whatever Government negotiate on our behalf. The parallel negotiation will be tortuous and tense. As one witness to the committee said, the United Kingdom will be presented with “almost unimaginable … long-term ghastliness”, given the legal complications involved.

I shall cut to the point. The parallel negotiations, let alone those involving EU legislation embedded in Scottish legislation, may well outlast the life of this Parliament and indeed of this Government. Instant resolution is a myth; it is not going to happen, and to appear to offer it is folly. One matter is clear: this perilous and hugely demanding series of negotiations that Brexit must involve requires a Government who are united and command a majority in Parliament. For this to be achieved may require, whatever the constitutional difficulties, a further general election.

I have spent a large part of the last two years writing a book about Winston Churchill in 1946. During that period he made two very famous speeches. One was at Fulton, Missouri, where he revealed to the American public that Joe Stalin was not good old Uncle Joe at all but a tyrant determined to extend his control over the rest of Europe, and he appealed to the Americans to come to Europe’s defence—which, thank God, they subsequently did. If we ever wonder whether Mr Obama has a right to offer his opinion, surely what the Americans did then and in the post-war period justifies it.

Churchill made the second speech six months later in Zurich—the so-called “let Europe arise!” speech. In it, he said to his audience, “I am going to startle you”—and he did, because what he proposed was a kind of united states of Europe which would be led by a partnership between France and Germany. He did not propose that we should join it—it was not there—but he said that we should unequivocally support it, and he was absolutely right. That second speech had as much impact as the first. The first, arguably, kicked off the process that led eventually to NATO and the defence of Berlin. The second definitely kicked off the process that led to Marshall aid and eventually to the European Coal and Steel Community.

I have been asked by many people—it has been discussed in the media a great deal—what Churchill’s view would have been. Of course, we do not know, but there is something that we should remember. Churchill advocated and supported Franco-German unity and a kind of united states of Europe because he believed that Britain’s place in the world turned decisively on being at the centre of three great circles of influence: the English-speaking world outside the United States, the Commonwealth; the United States; and Europe. He also believed that if we allowed ourselves to be pushed out, or took ourselves out, of any one of those three circles, we would be critically damaged and diminished in the remaining two. If we do that now with Brexit, I believe that that will again be the case.