EU: UK Membership

Lord Watson of Richmond Excerpts

Thursday 24th October 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Watson of Richmond (LD)]

My Lords, first, I join in thanking my noble friend Lord Shipley for introducing this debate, and I add my compliments on the maiden speech made by my noble friend Lord Wrigglesworth—an old friend. Whether he will actually achieve the holding of the balance of power in this House is open for later debate, but we certainly welcome the contribution that he is undoubtedly going to make. He will bring a sharpness in the sense of realism. He has, I believe, been described as “suave”. I do not know about that but he will make a difference, which is excellent.

I should declare two interests which are relevant to the subject. We have already heard about the impact of EU membership on the funding of university research in the United Kingdom. As High Steward of Cambridge University, I should like to say that the real dependence that Cambridge University, which in many ways is the leading science university in the United Kingdom, has on EU funding is immensely significant and would of course be threatened by an EU withdrawal. Secondly, I chair a number of companies, all of which are deeply dependent on trade within the European Union.

There are many individuals, companies and, increasingly, countries whose good will and decisions are going to be vital to Britain’s future and which have warned us of the consequences of withdrawal. That list is perhaps in some danger of becoming a kind of litany, recited by pro-Europeans such as myself; nevertheless, the list stands and it grows: the US State Department, the German Chancellor, Nissan cars and Hitachi. Earlier this month, a survey showed that one-third of British manufacturers said that they would be less likely to invest if we quit, and a further third said that they would have to make significant changes to their business model were we to do so.

However, in this debate on the economic impact of membership, I should like to focus not on that lengthening list and the current benefits which we might jeopardise but on the vast and new opportunities that we would forgo in world trade; namely—and it has been raised already—the momentum of the EU’s bilateral trade and investment agreements, signed, about to be signed and now being negotiated. Taken together, they represent an extraordinary new landscape of trade, and if we excluded ourselves, we would mar and impoverish our prospects as a trading nation for decades and maybe centuries to come.

The first of these new deals was with South Korea in July 2011. As tariffs have fallen with Korea, exports have soared, giving the EU, for the first time in 15 years, a trade surplus with Korea. On the 18th of this month came the comprehensive economic and trade agreement with Canada. It is actually the EU’s first free-trade agreement with a G8 country and it has removed 99% of tariffs. Let us remind ourselves that the EU is Canada’s largest trading partner after the United States.

Under negotiation is the agreement with Japan—the second biggest Asian trading partner of the EU—which could boost EU exports by a third, creating, it is calculated, up to 400,000 new jobs in Europe. The current round of talks this week in Brussels involves powerful EU pressure on Japanese non-tariff barriers, which is probably the key with Japan. Talks with India are under way, although at a much earlier stage, and then of course there is the really big one: the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, which was born of the EU-US high-level working group on jobs and growth, involving a great many top people from British multinational corporations. It could add £119 billion to the GDP of the EU. It is not going to be an easy thing to negotiate but it is an imperative for both sides. Let us remember: we focus a lot on Asia but the United States and the EU together represent 50% of global GDP and one-third of all world trade. If we withdrew from the EU, this would place us on the periphery of this new international trade landscape—vitally effective but marginalised. It would be an own goal of monumental consequences.

Finally, the balance that we should be looking at is not just an arithmetic calculation of present benefits and penalties. Underpinning all this is a recognition of change. I should like to end by saying that six years ago when I stepped down as the chairman of the British-German bilateral Königswinter conference, a member of the German Parliament got up and attacked Britain’s attitude towards the EU, saying that we lacked vision and commitment. I said in reply, “Look, we started this European journey from very different places. We started it as the bankrupt victor; you started it as a country which had been disgraced, divided and occupied. We began at a different place”. What matters is where we are now, and the place where we are now is a recognition of interdependence in a globalised economy. We must not jeopardise that.