Iran

Lord Walney Excerpts

Tuesday 19th October 2021 Lords Chamber

[Lord Walney (CB)]

My Lords, this has been a fascinating debate, but it has often seemed as if there have been two separate, entirely different countries that were being discussed. One showed Iran as a potential partner for peace, a potential future trading ally that has been wronged by the West and President Trump, and let down by the UK. The other, which I fear is closer to reality, is a country described in contributions by the noble Lords, Lord Austin and Lord Waverley, and the noble Baroness, Lady Coussins: it is run by a military dictatorship that remains the biggest exporter of Islamist terror in the world and reaches into our own country in the way that the noble Baroness, Lady Coussins, just set out and provides a real and credible threat to its neighbours in the region and, in the future, to our way of life.

I accept and agree with the arguments made by a number of erudite and experienced noble Lords for the resumption of the JCPOA. If the agreement is resumed, it must be effective. I would like to see it going wider than the nuclear parameters it has been set, but I fear that is unrealistic. Let us be under no illusion, however, that Iran is now breaking the agreement, forging forward towards being a nuclear power. I hope the Minister will reaffirm that the UK understands that there is no scenario in which this can be accepted and allowed to carry on.

When we talk about the inducements necessary to bring Iran back to the table, let us be clear that there is no scenario in which Iran can be allowed to become a nuclear power in the region. The G7 recently made that clear, as did the United States in its bilateral engagement with Israel a couple of weeks ago. The UK also needs to be clear that no one will allow this threshold to be reached. I hope that will be part of restoring a level of deterrence that can bring Iran back to the table effectively.

Surely deterring Iran from becoming a nuclear threat in the region and to the world and from continuing its disgraceful role as an exporter of Islamist terror is a wider issue than this sanctions/enrichment trade-off. It requires a more significant reappraisal of the West’s approach to its alliances, foreign policy and outlook in the world.

Capability is of course an issue, but the resolve to act is surely just as important. In recent years, Iran has shown what it can do with a fraction of the capability of our allies in the West. If we do not have the resolve to face down acts of aggression or the foresight to understand the scale of the threat to our liberal democracies and the rule of law in this environment, the threat Iran can pose with very little capability can spread. Look at Yemen. With a low level of resource, the Iranians have empowered an Islamist proxy to prolong a conflict that has not only caused untold suffering for Yemenis but weakened essential ties between the coalition formed against the Houthi Islamist terror group and against the Islamist expansionist terror which Iran has represented and championed since 1979.

The same currents applied in Lebanon and in Syria before that. Iran and Russia have exploited a relative lack of resolve and strategic common sense from the West, resulting in appalling misery for millions of Syrians, a refugee crisis that is further impacting on the West and the emboldening of those who would undermine our way of life.

This matters even more because of the emergence of China, which will in years ahead be able to bring world-class military capability and might to challenge any weakness in the West’s resolve. Basic hostility to our world view, plus military capability, plus ongoing weakness from the West to deter threats could pose an existential challenge to our way of life in the decades ahead. Let us hope that Iran’s acceptance into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is largely symbolic for the moment, but it is a symbol whose importance we must countenance.

The UK has shown its ability to think creatively with the recent strength of the AUKUS alliance. Our challenge should be to apply that scale of ambition, innovative thinking and strength of partnership to the Middle East, to restore that sense of deterrence.