Ukraine

Lord Wallace of Saltaire Excerpts

Monday 17th December 2018 Grand Committee

[Lord Wallace of Saltaire (LD)]

My Lords, I am no more of a great expert on Ukraine than the noble Lord, Lord Bowness, although I have been there on a number of occasions. Indeed, I recall an extraordinary conference when Ukraine had been independent for three weeks, and I was part of a western delegation to try to explain how an independent state had a foreign policy. I discovered only many years later that my noble friend Lord Oxford and Asquith had also been at the conference in a professional capacity but had not introduced himself to me. I have taken his advice in preparing my thoughts for this debate, and he apologises that he is not able to be here today, as he has to be abroad.

I think that we all understand the Russian strategy towards its neighbours. Russian leaders regard Ukraine in the same way as English Tories used to regard Ireland: it is not a real country and it ought to be governed from Moscow or London. I believe that there might even be some English Conservatives today who hold that view towards Ireland. Some years ago, I deeply upset someone I had worked with in Moscow by making that remark in a Moscow meeting.

Ukraine’s independence is key to our future relationship with Russia. For us, Russia will have to accept that Ukraine is a normal state if it successfully retains its independence. However, Russia’s efforts to disturb all the weaker countries behind it—I know more about Georgia and Armenia, where very similar attitudes are held, than I do about Ukraine—demonstrates that it wants to retain its sphere of influence, and it does that partly by making sure that those countries remain weak, dependent, corrupt and Russian-influenced.

The situation in Ukraine is difficult. I am told that in eastern Ukraine the combination of deep corruption and a failed economy is such that, as Ministers will know, a number of leaders have been assassinated, and the cost to the Russian economy of keeping Donetsk and Luhansk going is high. It does not yet stop the Russians wanting to hold on to it but it is a real drag on Russia. As the noble Lord, Lord Bowness, said, in Crimea the persecution of minorities—in particular, the Tatars—is real, and the image of success in Crimea and having the base in Sebastopol, from which Russia hopes to dominate the Black Sea, is important to it, but there are still tremendous negatives from the Russian point of view. In Ukraine, there are still corrupt politics and a weak economy, and we need to do a great deal more to try to help the country stabilise itself both politically and economically.

Our biggest worry in the current situation is the potential for accidental escalation. We have already heard about Russian troops being stationed closer to the borders with Ukraine than they were a year ago. That suggests the possibility of local conflict bursting out into a general conflagration. Of course, in the Sea of Azov further clashes between naval ships and merchant vessels are also possible. Therefore, it is not a stable situation.

What is our response? Clearly, we need western solidarity within NATO and in the EU. The role of the EU has become more important because the role of the United States under President Trump, particularly in policies towards Russia, is much more equivocal. Therefore, for the next three months at least we should work with our EU colleagues. What we do after 29 March is another matter, on which I am sure the Government have a clear strategy and policy. However, let us hope that we will hear from the Minister that the British Government are determined to play an active part. After all, over the last few years the British Government have stepped back on this. In 2014, when the Ukraine crisis broke out over Crimea, the Foreign Office discovered that expertise on both Ukraine and Russia had been run down very badly in previous years and action had to be taken to rebuild it. Earlier than that, the Minsk process had been given to France and Germany, with the British stepping back from that and the associated Normandy process. I hope, therefore, that we will hear from the Minister that the British Government are determined to play an active part in stabilising Ukraine and supporting it in these difficult relationships with Russia.

Mention has been made of a strengthened naval presence in the Black Sea. It is clear that the West—NATO as a whole—ought to have a more visible naval presence in the Black Sea. I would be interested to hear what the British contribution to that might be, what the conversations within NATO are, and about the expanded British assistance to Ukraine—there is useful assistance but clearly it needs to be maintained. Above all—I finish where I started—the independence of Ukraine is key to the future relationship between Europe and Russia.