Middle East and North Africa

Lord Wallace of Saltaire Excerpts

Friday 11th February 2011 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Symons of Vernham Dean]

My Lords, I thank the Minister for introducing the debate. I do not think that he spoke for a moment too long. The House was very grateful to hear what he had to say and for his covering the issues so comprehensively. I declare an interest as chairman of the Arab-British Chambers of Commerce and a frequent visitor to the Arab League countries. My other interests are all covered in your Lordships’ Register of Interests.

As the Minister has said, events on the ground in the region are moving very quickly and dramatically. For many, the unrest seems to have come as something of a sudden explosion. However, for many of the commentators who have spent time in the region, the sense of unease and growing dissatisfaction, particularly among young people, has been evident not just for several months but for many years. The UNDP report on Arab development, written by Arabs for their Governments some seven or eight years ago, stressed the huge pressure for jobs, particularly for young people. That pressure, it was said, would grow markedly between 2010 and 2020. It was calculated that 100 million jobs—an enormous number—would be needed in the region if it was to meet the needs of a young and growing population. Those populations are growing very fast in every country. Certainly, in Egypt, as we have seen with the activity of young people in Tahrir Square, to which the Minister referred, half the population is aged under 25. Sixty per cent of Saudis are aged under 20—an extraordinary figure.

Education standards have risen throughout the region—in the Maghreb, particularly in Morocco but also in Tunisia; in the Levant, particularly in Jordan; and in the Gulf states, especially in the Emirates and Qatar. These major improvements in education have not been matched by the number of jobs coming on to the market. The shortfall between educational attainment and job opportunity has led to disillusionment and unrest. Most of the Arab League leaders have recognised this for several years. In recent months I have discussed the real problems—indeed, the dangers—of increasing numbers of young, well educated people who have little opportunity. I have discussed it in Libya, the Emirates, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. It is a real difficulty that arises when expectations are raised and then hopes dashed in the reality of disappointment.

Moreover, the increases that we have seen in basic commodity prices have been very sharp and steep. The costs of basic food and energy have risen in Egypt, Jordan, the Maghreb and even in some of the Gulf states. Most of the Governments have been swift to recognise the toxic combination of these price rises and joblessness, particularly after the events in Tunisia. I was in Libya the weekend following President Ben Ali’s departure. There were demonstrations even in Tripoli. However, President Gaddafi made a broadcast saying that similar events were not to be anticipated in Libya because of the sound ideology which the people recognised and valued. I understand that a very similar speech was made by President Bashar Assad in Syria. However, the Libyan Government none the less deployed its huge wealth very quickly to subsidise food. The demonstrations that took place in Jordan were much smaller but they prompted the direct injection of money into public services. In Kuwait, the Government even went so far as to make direct payments to their people. Twitter channels have been full of plans for demonstrations this coming weekend. When I was in the region 10 days ago, I watched on the TV rioting in Beirut and near rioting in Cairo. Reports were coming through of unrest in Algeria and Syria and of planned demonstrations in Bahrain and even activity elsewhere in the Gulf.

The desire for democracy and a real say in how one’s country is governed is common to all people in all parts of the world. I have never agreed with the argument articulated by some organisations and individuals in the region that somehow democracy is a western ideology being foisted on the rest of the world. The young people in Tahrir Square today are evidence of a burning desire for democracy in the region. Their determination and sense of capturing the moment are, it seems, infectious. But I do think that we have to respond to this with humility. I remember in 2004 when President Bush decided on his agenda for Arab reform, including a move to democracy. He laid out a blueprint for that transition. There was outrage in the Middle East. As Minister for the Middle East at the time, I was asked to hold an urgent meeting with all the Arab League ambassadors in London. They all conveyed the same message and it was a simple one: “Don’t tell us how to run our countries. Don’t lecture us about democracy. Don’t lecture us about reform”. This occurred at the same time as the abuses in Abu Ghraib were coming to light, and their other message was not surprisingly, “Don’t lecture us about human rights”. Indeed, Jack Straw, then Foreign Secretary, had stressed the importance of reform coming from within each country, as the noble Lord has said today. What was right then is right today.

The fact is there is no single blueprint because all the Arab League countries are very different from each other. What may work in Morocco, with its democratic institutions which are now well embedded, will not be acceptable in Syria. What is right in Lebanon, as it precariously forms its Government—that is a delicate operation, as the Minister has said—is not necessarily anything like appropriate in Oman. To be frank, I think that the United States’ initiative at that time caused so much offence that many reformers in the region found themselves suddenly accused at home of merely dancing to the American tune. As the White House began to claim that every reform in the region was the result of American diplomacy, the enthusiasm for a home-grown reform agenda faltered. In short, at that time many reformers in the region found that the ground was cut from under their feet. Therefore, I hope that the western powers can resist the temptation to take any credit for what is happening at this time and lay it fairly and squarely where it belongs—on the shoulders of the people of the region.

We are possibly watching history unfold but this is a moment for cool heads and sound judgment—the sort of judgment that plans very carefully for what may happen next. Although the world’s attention has been turned from Tunisia to Egypt, the fact is that Tunisia is acting decisively—I applaud the Foreign Secretary for his visit there this week—on human rights, where the Council of Ministers has implemented its plan for the future. Tunisia is embracing the protocols. It has set aside capital punishment and any use of torture by accepting the protocols. It has now accepted the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. It is drawing up rules for fair and free elections on the basis of a public consultation and it is drafting laws on bribery and corruption. As one Tunisian colleague said to me this week, “Our people want the same as all human beings—justice, equality, fairer distribution of wealth, the possibility of participation in political life, better living conditions—above all, better lives for our children”.

Meanwhile in Jordan, the new Government have a clear mandate for reform from the king. Everyone I met in Jordan 10 days ago was talking about reform—mostly about economic reform, but some of it was, indeed, constitutional. The street demonstrations there have been relatively small—in the low thousands out of a population of 6 million. The entrepreneurial groups recognised not just the pressing need but the real urgency for reform of government institutions. It was they—the middle-aged, the business people—who were pressing their case so vigorously in Jordan.

The question for us is what help and support we can offer to the institutions growing in the Middle East to find their own way forward. We will not do that by public lecturing—I agree strongly with what the Minister has said on that. The sort of help and support that the British Council gives, and which the Westminster Foundation for Democracy is rightly acknowledged as nurturing, is what is needed. I am glad to hear about the £5 million fund that the noble Lord told us about. It is a good idea, but we already have the institutions in this country that could help so much on the ground. I know that the Minister may find this problematic but, frankly, the cuts being made to the Westminster Foundation for Democracy, the British Council and the World Service are just plain wrong. If Ministers really mean what they say about values, democracy, partnership and support, as opposed to making speeches about them, they must recognise that the savings are paltry in their effect on our economy. They are completely misconceived in so far as they are fettering the sort of help that we can give in the region.

We all know that elections are necessary but not sufficient for democracy to flourish. Elections without the rule of law are a licence for the tyranny of the majority over the minority. The rule of law, without human rights to protect the individual against the state, can justify abuse of those who do not conform. However, this is not a one-sided issue. Without proper security there is a threat of instability which attracts groups of people looking for a safe haven for their activities, whether it is promoting extreme ideology or engaging in criminal activity. We can, and should, mobilise the European Union in its dialogue with the Mediterranean Middle East and in its exchanges with the Gulf Co-operation Council. We need to strengthen the EU/Arab dialogue, and we need that to start now. There is a huge range of issues, not just security or counterterrorism, where we should be engaging. We should be talking more about the future resourcing of food and water, oil and gas and cybersecurity, and about human trafficking. Country to country and region to region we need to establish the relationships now which we may need in the very near future. We Europeans are good at that. We understand it, and at times we understand it better than our American cousins.

These changes in the Middle East may lead to real increases in tension with close neighbours—I mean with Israel and Iran. As we all know, elections often mean real change. The unelected have more freedom on how to control security both within their countries and with their neighbours. The Foreign Secretary was right to suggest that the already faltering peace process in the Middle East will not get any easier. Israeli security has in large measure been protected—I argue that it has been guaranteed—by Egypt and Jordan, often in the teeth of virulent criticism from within their countries and sometimes from their neighbours. However, Israel may find attitudes hardening if people on the Arab street have a decisive say in what happens next.

Most recent Israeli Governments have indeed been coalitions, where often the freedom of the ruling party is fettered by the ideology of the coalition partners. Debates in the Knesset are indeed democracy at work, but that democracy has hardened attitudes over what can and cannot be negotiated in the peace process. If Jordan and Egypt at any point in the future have Governments elected on an anti-peace mandate, we shall all be the losers. It is a sobering thought. Democracy may bring us real problems in that respect.

Like many, I believe that trade is a vital component in international relationships, and I applaud the Foreign Office’s active engagement. In my day, it was the Business Secretary who went frequently to the Gulf—and very well he did it too. I look forward to our current Business Secretary getting cracking on this agenda, particularly in Saudi Arabia, where there is so much opportunity and so much that can and should be done. However, as I am sure the Minister knows, there is growing concern in the region that the Foreign Secretary’s emphasis on trade has become too dominant.

The outstanding political powers in the region are of course Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Saudi has the biggest economy, is a member of the G20 and, frankly, dominates the international oil market. Egypt is by far and away the most populous nation, with 1.4 million men under arms, and is the guarantor of regional safety. It is splendid to visit the UAE and Qatar, which I am always happy to do. It is important for British jobs and it is important for British trade. However, foreign policy is not a one-way street. Our Secretaries of State need to engage far more vigorously in political dialogue, particularly with Saudi and Egypt—not through loudhailers, as the Minister said, but through relationship building; not on the telephone or through envoys, but in person and in country. It is noticed and remarked upon that Britain seems to care more about the depth of the pockets in the region than about those countries’ policies. I am sure that that impression is wrong, but it needs to be corrected—and soon.

As we all know, today is another possible turning point for Egypt, and I finish where the Minister began. It may well be that the unrest has gone well beyond the point where people will be satisfied with anything less than real change throughout their Government and their constitution. However, that is their decision. We all want peaceful transition. I agree with virtually everything the Minister said on this subject. As I speak, it is possible that Friday prayers are finishing in Cairo, Alexandria and Suez. For us, democracy, the rule of law and human rights are the best foundation. We all hope that the people of Egypt will find their best foundation and that they will find it very soon.

[Lord Wallace of Saltaire]

I say simply that this is not a time-limited debate. If speakers take an average of 12 minutes, we should finish by around 2 pm. Noble Lords will recall that the Companion suggests that to avoid tiring the House the maximum time for speeches should normally be 15 minutes.