Syria: UK Military Action

Lord Turnberg Excerpts

Wednesday 2nd December 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Turnberg (Lab)]

My Lords, to bomb or not to bomb; that is not the question. The real questions are, how we defeat Daesh when we know bombing alone will not do it, and what our plan is for Syria as and when Daesh is removed. Bombing has an effect, of course, but Daesh has a strong territorial base, and its ability to survive aerial attacks by the major powers lends it a sense of invincibility that adds to its attraction for vulnerable youngsters. It is winning a battle for hearts and minds.

It is inevitable that we will need boots on the ground; the question is, who should be wearing those boots. We have a heady mix of participants, with conflicting aims: Russia is supporting Assad against the rebels, although recently also against Daesh, while the US is supporting the rebels against Assad. I would love to have listened to the conversations between Putin and Obama in Vienna and Paris recently. Can the noble Earl tell us whether he has any insights into how they resolved their differences? Turkey is opposed to the Syrian regime, but at the same time is attacking the Kurds, when the Kurds are the best local fighting force against Daesh. Saudi Arabia is distracted in Yemen, and the Gulf states are standing back. On the ground in Syria we have this mixed bag of groups, often with conflicting aims.

We may ask whether Assad should be considered an ally, at least for the time being, and how far we should rely on Iran to play a role. We know that Iran’s intention is to create a strong Shia arc across Syria and into a completely dysfunctional Lebanon, in hock to the terrorists of Hezbollah. Iran and its proxies threaten Jordan and Israel, both strong supporters of the West and both of which feel very threatened. Incidentally, there is this strange idea floating about that all the problems of the Middle East are somehow due to Israel’s inability to reach agreement with the Palestinians —the Saudi ambassador said as much in the Times today. Does anyone really believe that if Israel did not exist, all would be sweetness and light with Daesh? That hardly seems credible.

What is to be done? Yes, let us bomb Daesh, but who can we get to do what is needed on the ground? America and Germany are now sending in some personnel, but local efforts will inevitably be needed. The Kurds in the north, with about 25,000 men, are a vital resource, and if we can get the Turks off their backs they will be invaluable. Have the Government exerted any pressure on Turkey to lay off the Kurds and give them some autonomy? Among the other militant factions, there are some more moderate rebel groups that could be taken into a coalition against Daesh. Considerable effort would be required to support, co-ordinate and train these forces, and it is here that we could play an important role. What efforts are we making with the Americans to do just that? This is obviously a strategy that we have to pursue, but I fear that at the end of the day, if we are serious about removing Daesh, we may well have to see NATO playing a more active role on the ground.

Finally, we have to be able to offer the anti-Assad forces a slice of the Syrian cake. It seems inevitable to me that, post-Daesh, Syria will not exist as it has done up to now. How will it be carved up? Will it be a sort of federation of states, some run by successors to the rebel forces? Will Assad continue to rule a subset of Syria or will he be removed? How far will Russia go to sustain him? How do we prevent Iran taking over, with all its support for terrorist groups? These are the thorny issues we will need to resolve soon, rather than leaving them until after the conflict with Daesh is over. We cannot have a post-Iraq situation again.