Iran

Lord Triesman Excerpts

Thursday 24th October 2013 Grand Committee

[Lord Triesman (Lab)]

My Lords, this debate is happening at an important moment. I share President Obama’s assessment, echoed by my noble friend Lady Ashton on behalf of the EU, that President Hassan Rouhani is indeed reaching out. The recent exchanges on the nuclear programme, the exchanges of letters and the interface with our own Foreign Secretary are hopeful signs, but so far they are only signs. I therefore join others in thanking the noble Baroness, Lady Afshar, for hitting such a helpful moment to have this debate.

Anyone who knows the Iranian people or who has visited the country will be impressed by the energy and intellectual curiosity, particularly of young Iranians. Anyone who has ever taught Iranian students, as I have had the good fortune to do, will know exactly what I mean, and the noble Baroness, Lady Williams, made key points about the role of women in higher education which I wholly endorse. Iranians are inquiring, modern and hungry to engage with others; they are protective of their country, although that does not mean that they embrace theocratic rule or want to live in a social order resembling a caliphate—that is not true about them. Some are very brave. They faced repression, even if there are now limited changes.

It makes great sense to look at the two outward-facing windows that this debate suggests we look at which offer perhaps the best opportunities to build, for ordinary people, on the process of reaching out. Commercial links have understandably been impacted by economic sanctions. Sanctions were and, in my view, are essential until there is compliance with all United Nations decisions. They have had an impact and have had a much better effect than the alternative forms of intervention which some have advocated. It is easy to understand that the Iranians want them eased. The country is struggling under the current sanctions, not least because of the two-thirds decline in its oil exports, which account for some 50% of government expenditure.

The noble Lord, Lord Lamont, put the case about the economy very strongly, and I can only echo him. In exchange for diplomatic concessions, there is already promising talk about easing sanctions imposed by the UN and the West. Starting from such a low point, almost any commercial link is bound to be an improvement. On 19 October, the United States released $12 billion-worth of sanctions and the EU released $35 billion-worth of sanctions. These are good steps. I know of business opportunities, including some for Iranian state pension providers, many of whose beneficiaries are British. Opportunity is there, so there will be progress, but only if there is progress in the other areas that concern us, not least uranium enrichment and security for the missions of countries, including ours, that have suffered in the recent past. We do not yet know with certainty that this progress is sustainable, and I will return to the strategic judgment we have to make. It should be the core issue of this debate that we look at this issue, and ask the same fundamental questions as the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Ripon and Leeds. I share his call for clarity.

Education links are invaluable for the future. They reach a new generation of Iranians whom we need to reach. UNESCO tells us that almost 99% of Iranians aged between 15 and 24 are literate and, as a percentage, as many people go to tertiary education as in this country. Support for educational and cultural exchanges between our two countries will form stronger bonds and more mutual comprehension. We have promoted this through the British Council and Chevening scholarships.

Other countries have also recognised the problems in this arena. UNESCO reported interventions—I will not go though all the kinds of courses because of the time—from Germany, France, the Czech Republic, Malaysia, Korea and the United States, and I am sure there are a great many others. Aside from the Chevening scholarships, I am aware of initiatives taken by a number of British universities. There are scholarships at Cambridge, East Anglia, Westminster and Nottingham, and the noble Lord, Lord Hylton, kindly reminded us of a longer and deeper historic link with the universities as well.

All this is positive, but it does not address the key strategic issue. I know how hard negotiating with Iran can be as I conducted the negotiations for the release of our sailors and marines who were seized in the Persian Gulf by the Revolutionary Guard. Everyone is entitled to look for signs of hope—we would feel hopeless if we did not do that—but we will all weigh the changes in top personnel, even if we do not yet know much about them, and the positive words, which are to be welcomed and given weight, while we recognise that the intention of diplomats who utter them is that they should be given weight. The art is to be optimistic, but not to put unsustainable weight on pronouncements or on preliminary stages of a dialogue. These are processes where cautious advance is critical, working out with consummate care what is to be given in exchange for real changes, and for nothing less.

I ask noble Lords not to misunderstand my point. I want hope and positive advance no less than anybody else. I do not want to miss any window of opportunity, but I know that no sophisticated nation or alliance builds a credible foreign policy on the basis of hope alone. It is built in calibrated steps by all parties. It is circumspect and usually involves turning around a huge tanker that is loaded with history, poor experiences and disappointments. To do so as fast as the evidence suggests is, of course, right, but it has to be as fast as the evidence suggests.

I hope that when we hear in a few moments from the noble Baroness, Lady Warsi, what the Government’s current assessment is, the lessons to take away will be that we must move in a timely way; that we should not be star-struck with hope without proof of good intention; and that we should have carefully designed milestones by which to measure proposals. That is the approach I would advocate, and I do not believe that it moves an inch against the direction of doing so with a hopeful spirit.