Ukraine

Lord Stirrup Excerpts

Friday 26th January 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Stirrup (CB)]

My Lords, during our debate on Ukraine last September, I cautioned that there would be no rapid military resolution to the war there and that we should be prepared for a protracted and messy conflict. Events since then have served only to reinforce this view.

Perhaps the most important operational development over the past year has been the extent to which Ukrainian forces have been able to threaten Russia’s use of Crimea as a secure base for its maritime forces. This is undoubtedly a major achievement. We should not underestimate the strategic significance of Crimea to Russia. For Russia, its security is of much greater importance than relatively small movements of the front line elsewhere in Ukraine. Nevertheless, Russian consolidation of its positions in the Donbass and the south of the country poses a serious challenge for Ukrainian planners. This is particularly so given the losses that the Ukrainian armed forces have suffered and continue to suffer on the front lines. Russian losses have been even higher but, of course, its resources are much greater.

We must face the fact that the nature of this conflict has changed, or perhaps not so much changed but become more obvious. It is a battle of wills between Putin and the West. His calculus is that a protracted campaign will become increasingly unpopular in the West and that the political will to sustain the financial and material costs will erode over time, with a consequent weakening of Ukraine’s military ability to resist. Putin no doubt believes, as others have said, that a Trump victory in this year’s American general election could be very helpful in that regard. The Defence Secretary agrees. In his recent speech at Lancaster House, he said:

“Putin believes the West lacks staying power. And since the future of the world order is at stake, we must prove him wrong”.


He went on:

“Old enemies are reanimated. New foes are taking shape. Battle lines are being redrawn. The tanks are literally on Europe’s Ukrainian lawn … the foundations of the world order are being shaken to their core. We stand at this crossroads—whether to surrender to a sea of troubles, or do everything we can to deter the danger”.


If that were not enough, the Foreign Secretary has said:

“The lights are absolutely flashing red … on the global dashboard”.


He also said:

“It is hard to think of a time when there has been so much danger, insecurity and instability in the world”.


I am with them but, given such a dire if accurate analysis of our situation, noble Lords might understand how much it jarred with me when the Defence Secretary also said that

“we have made the critical decision to set out our aspiration to reach 2.5% of GDP … on defence”.

Talk about an anticlimax.

Up to now, the UK has done well in its support for Ukraine. But if we are to prove Putin wrong about the West’s staying power, we must make the necessary sustained investment in defence capability and defence industrial capacity. With that in mind, it is worth remembering that the Iran-Iraq war—a brutal conflict that ended in stalemate—lasted for eight years. We cannot forecast the course of the war in Ukraine, but we should be thinking in these kinds of timescales. In that context, 2.5% of GDP is not nearly enough for defence, and we do not even have a commitment to reach that inadequate level—just an aspiration.

We are frequently told by the Government that they have delivered the largest increase in defence expenditure since the end of the Cold War. That may be, but it is only after imposing some of the largest cuts. As I have said before, you really cannot claim credit for helping someone to keep their head just above water when you pushed them into the river in the first place.

Another frequent argument is that how we spend the money matters much more than how much we have to spend. Nobody disagrees with the principle that money should be spent wisely, but try telling all the British citizens suffering from the recent significant rise in the cost of living that their problems are their own fault and that they would disappear if only they managed their money better. Improved efficiency can mitigate to some extent, but cannot eliminate, the damaging consequences of inadequate resources.

In his evidence to your Lordship’s International Relations and Defence Committee, the previous Defence Secretary admitted that the Armed Forces had been hollowed out over far too many years. He subsequently confirmed that defence needed more investment than the Government were prepared to commit.

This is not an issue just for the UK. If the outcome in Ukraine is as critical as the Government claim—rightly, in my view—the countries of western Europe simply cannot allow their safety and security to be subject to the vagaries of American politics. They need to increase defence expenditure significantly, expand defence industrial capacity and co-ordinate their efforts both to support Ukraine and to strengthen NATO more widely. As the Minister reminded us, together, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and all the other countries within NATO have more than enough economic and industrial muscle to overmatch Russia, even with the latter on a draconian war footing. What is required is the will to do it, and that is not yet evident. The UK should be offering a greater lead in this regard. We have to match our grand words with decisive and sustained actions, backed by the appropriate resources.

On Tuesday, we witnessed the introduction of the right reverend prelate the Bishop of Hereford. We have heard the words of a bishop’s introduction to the House many times, and perhaps we too often let them just roll over us. However, on that occasion I could not but reflect on the relevance and urgency of some of the phrases:

“considering the difficulty of the said affairs and the dangers impending … as you regard … the safety and defence of the said Kingdom … in nowise do you omit”.

The Government would do well to take this stricture to heart. As far as defence is concerned, there has been far too much omitting over recent years, and it has to stop.