Ukraine

Lord Stevens of Birmingham Excerpts

Friday 31st October 2025 Lords Chamber

[Lord Stevens of Birmingham (CB)]

My Lords, it is possible that future historians will assess Vladimir Putin as one of the most strategically incompetent dictators in Russian history. A man who intended to destroy and denude Ukraine of its sovereign defence-industrial base has in fact has led to a stronger capability on the part of Ukraine than at any point in its independent history. A man who determined night and day to sow discord across NATO has nevertheless caused the accession of Sweden and Finland, as we have heard. A man who preaches the virtues of imperial Russia finds himself a supplicant to Beijing and Pyongyang. But all of that is cold comfort, given the critical situation now facing Ukraine, as we have heard from the noble and gallant lords, Lord Houghton and Lord Stirrup, and the noble Lord, Lord West.

As President Zelensky has reminded us, the situation right now in Pokrovsk is on a knife edge, with potentially much wider ramifications for the fortress belt and for Donbass. Putin clearly has no interest in a ceasefire that would be viable for an independent Ukraine, which is why the noble Lord, Lord Barrow, in his excellent and judicious maiden speech, was quite right to warn and remind us that the only route to peace is through continuing Ukrainian strength.

Future historians might, however, also look back at our own response: not that of the successive British Governments, whose leadership on Ukraine has been outstanding, but on the broader sluggardliness of the response when it comes to funding or materiel that Ukraine has needed. It is over three years since President Zelensky first raised the question of allowing Ukrainians access to the frozen Russian assets. It is over a year ago that the European Union first began debating that and, within the last week, we find that again scuppered by Belgian concerns. We need to continue to apply the economic vice much more vigorously at a time when, after initial resilience, the Russian economy is now showing genuine signs of strain. In the real world, inflation is probably running at over 20%, as against the 8% being reported by the Russian central bank. Russia’s critical oil and gas revenues are down by 20% year on year, with a further squeeze about to come. Now is not the time to relent.

On weapons systems, again, it is only fair to conclude that we collectively have been too slow in getting Ukraine the weapons systems it requires. That is true whether it has been HIMARS, ATACMS, Abrams tanks or F16s. On each occasion, we have been given pause by the cognitive warfare or the bluster from the Kremlin as to theoretical red lines, which turn out to be non-existent. We are about to make the same mistake again in respect of the deep strike capabilities that the Ukrainians require through Tomahawks. As the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, rightly said at the outset, civilian casualties are rising in Ukraine; part of the reason for that is because of the capabilities that exist deep behind the Russian border. It is Tomahawks that will be in a position to degrade capabilities such as the Shahed drone factory in Yelabuga or the Engels-2 strategic bomber air force base being used for the new precision glide bombs. These are the capabilities that Ukraine needs now.

As Prime Minister Donald Tusk rightly reminded us all this past weekend, and as we have heard with unanimity in the Chamber this morning, this is not just a fight for Ukraine; this is our fight, but not some fight beyond our borders. This is a fight happening in Europe right now. We have seen within the last few weeks MiG-31s in Estonian airspace. We have seen drone incursions in Poland, Germany, Denmark and Norway, and electoral interference in Moldova and Romania. This is happening now. Putin thinks that the consequence of this will be to strike fear in our hearts. The far bigger risk is insouciance, phlegmatism and distraction. We need to raise our game and strengthen our critical national infrastructure. We need to send much clearer messages of deterrence and impose costs on the Russians for these actions, and to make sure that our fellow citizens understand precisely what is going on.