Iran

Lord Soames of Fletching Excerpts

Monday 20th February 2012 Commons Chamber

[Nicholas Soames (Mid Sussex) (Con)]

I start by warmly congratulating my right hon. and learned Friend the Member for Kensington (Sir Malcolm Rifkind) on what was a remarkable, almost unanswerable, speech. I also congratulate my hon. Friend the Member for Basildon and Billericay (Mr Baron) on giving the House this opportunity to conduct this important debate. Although I am afraid that I cannot agree with him, I greatly respect the consistency and sincerely held nature of his views. Naturally, I agree with some of them.

It is impossible not to agree that we are right to be deeply distrustful of the Iranian regime. It is, after all, in breach of so many of its most serious obligations, and it is responsible for the brutal suppression of its people, for endless tail-tweaking and interference with its neighbours and elsewhere—putting it beyond the pale in many respects. It is safe to say that the mistrust is entirely mutual, so where do we start?

It is difficult to be optimistic about the opportunities in 2012. Without wanting to be rude about our revered American friends’ almost unbelievable campaign rhetoric, I think it unlikely that any approach to Iran would be regarded as anything other than appeasement. At the same time, Iran has its own elections this year. No doubt its contempt for the great Satan and his friend the United Kingdom will be on further public show.

In common with my hon. Friend the Member for Basildon and Billericay, I was taken by Peter Jenkins’ article in The Times recently, in which he argued that if we made a deal and allowed the Iranians to continue to enrich uranium, it would be in the interests of all for there to be a proper monitoring regime consistent with the IAEA rules. If that were possible and Iran volunteered some confidence-building measures, it would be very much in our interest to have constant inspection.

However—like every other Member who has spoken—I fear an Israeli attack on Iran, and I do not agree with the former Foreign Secretary, my right hon. and learned Friend the Member for Kensington, that the effects of such an attack would be purely temporary. I think that it would lock in the Islamic republic for a generation, that it would cement the appalling Syrian regime, that it would radicalise Arab opinion at a moment of the most delicate long-term, difficult transition, that it would ignite Hezbollah on the Lebanese border, and that it would boost Hamas. It would undoubtedly lead to a series of violent terrorist acts, it would propel the price of oil through the roof and trigger a possible regional war and, at best, it would set back Iran’s nuclear ambitions for only a few years.

Although there are no circumstances in which I would countenance a renunciation of the use of force, and although I wholly support the amendment tabled by my right hon. and learned Friend the Member for Kensington, I also support the Foreign Secretary’s admirable determination that diplomacy, negotiation and constant, unremitting effort to resolve this matter should be the order of the day.

[Mr Straw]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Nicholas Soames]

I will not—oh, well, of course.

[Mr Straw]

I am extremely grateful to the right hon. Gentleman, who is making a powerful point. Would he care to add the further point that as a result of the Arab spring, the popularity of President Ahmadinejad and the Iranian regime throughout the Arab world has plummeted—according to all the polls—from about 85% before those events began to between 5% and 10%? Were this conflagration to happen, that would of course change radically.

[Nicholas Soames]

I agree. I think that the Arab spring is a very fragile flower, and that we must guard it with great care.

The role of the British Government should be clear: we should encourage every effort to ease tensions, and, for our own part, try to repair diplomatic relations. In that regard in particular, our strong connections and relationships in Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are extremely important in maintaining stability and retaining peace in the region. We need to work alongside them, the United States and Saudi Arabia.

I hope that our Government will be bold, and will be prepared to explore—either with or without our immediate allies and if necessary, of course, in secret—the options for setting the choreography, which is always so critical in these difficult matters, of who does what and in what order. I remember well that, in the midst of the cold war negotiations with the Soviet Union, it was considered essential for us to develop confidence-building measures so that each side could convince itself, through some small but significant successes—that could convince everyone—that it was worth working with the other side, and thus allow diplomacy to bear fruit. We in Britain must remember those lessons.

Given the American elections on the one hand and the Iranian elections on the other, this is a good time to think about some specific steps that could be taken in regard to confidence-building. I am sure that the IAEA will have some very good ideas on the technical side, and perhaps we could promote a protocol to prevent “incidents at sea”. I believe that it is only a question of time before some ill-disciplined patrol boat sets off a major shooting match in the strait of Hormuz. Perhaps we could also co-operate in dealing with drugs from Afghanistan. Iran, the United States and Afghanistan, perhaps with specialist European Union help, might be able to work together on controlling the flow of narcotics from Afghanistan into Iran. We know that Iran is worried about that, and of course we are very worried about it too.

[Paul Flynn]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Nicholas Soames]

I will not, if the hon. Gentleman will forgive me.

Whatever steps are taken, they must not loosen the sanctions regime or, indeed, involve a renunciation of the possible use of force, but must rather show that we are serious about progress and the possibility—if it could be there—of reaching a peaceful agreement.

I do not believe that Iran has any interest in outright war, whether with the United States or with the wider international community. In my judgment, its actions and reactions must be seen through the prism of coercion. It is applying what coercive tools it has—for example, the ability to restrict traffic through the strait of Hormuz, or the use of terrorist proxies around the world—in response to the west’s application of its own coercive tools, such as the escalation of sanctions. New sanctions will cause damage to Iran. They will almost certainly enrich its strongmen, but they will not directly affect the nuclear programme. Unless we are prepared to break out of the conventional approach, this dance will get worse and worse.

The Foreign Secretary and his fellow Ministers have re-marshalled and re-energised the efforts of the foreign service to the great advantage of this country, and are in the process of revitalising the new global networks that will in future constitute a global super-highway through which great diplomatic and international disputes will be settled. I was very impressed by the line taken by the Foreign Secretary tonight, and with the commitment that he showed. I appeal to him to ensure that we in Britain use all our resources, all our relationships, and all our influence and help—quite apart from our relationship with the United States of America, and our conventional relationships in the Commonwealth, the European Union, the United Nations and the IAEA—to get ourselves into a position in which we can at least agree on some future ground rules for engagement and progress in the future. I fear that, in the absence of such action, this dispute has the potential to have the most dreadful long-term consequences, and we must avoid those at all costs.