Ukraine (International Relations and Defence Committee Report)

Lord Risby Excerpts

Thursday 6th March 2025 Grand Committee

[Lord Risby (Con)]

My Lords, I congratulate my noble friend Lord De Mauley and the members of the International Relations and Defence Committee on their excellent report. For 18 years in the other place, I represented a constituency with three air force bases, two American, including the nuclear strike force. I often felt concern that one day the hugely disproportionate American contribution to Europe’s defence would be challenged, given the low priority given by NATO countries to defence expenditure, but who would have thought that the reasons for any reduction of American support would have arisen after a country totally hostile to NATO had without reason attacked a democratic European country? Indeed, this is a grotesque wake-up call that we need to address.

President Trump has stated that the invasion of Ukraine would not have happened if he had been President. Well, maybe. Let us remind ourselves of the Budapest memorandum signed by Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom, which agreed that in return for Ukraine giving up its arsenal of nuclear weapons, they would respect the sovereignty, independence and existing borders of Ukraine. Had Ukraine kept its nuclear weapons, one may doubt that Russia would have dared to invade, but how many times have we seen examples of Russia signing an agreement and simply not abiding by it? There can be no illusions.

The report rightly highlights the importance of nurturing relationships and partnerships. The United Kingdom has played a vital role in leading from the front in support of Ukraine and in pushing others to do more themselves. This was particularly evident in the decision to send modern NATO heavy equipment, such as the Challenger 2 main battle tank in January 2023. Britain was the first country to take this bold step, and once the precedent had been set, many others followed our lead. This must continue. That these efforts have continued across two Governments and enjoy real cross-party support should be a source of satisfaction for us all and, indeed, for the Ukrainians most of all.

An area that the report touches on, and one where partnerships are vital to success, is sanctions. To be frank with ourselves, the collective effort on designing and enforcing sanctions has been underwhelming. The level of exports to and imports from Europe and Russia via third-party countries has increased enormously. Although sanctions have made it more difficult for Putin to bring in the cash and parts that his Russian war machine needs, we must face the fact that we have been inadequate in cutting it off. We need to draw conclusions about this for ourselves for any future possible conflict.

It looks, however, as if the endgame is in sight. What is critical is that the Ukrainian economy recovers and that foreign investors feel confident investing in the country. That requires clear assurances about security. The Russian navy became very aggressive and dominant in the Black Sea, with the intention of making it impossible to export Ukrainian products, notably grain. There was real anxiety that this would lead to a rapid collapse of the Ukrainian economy, and indeed a threat of horrifying starvation in parts of Africa and the Middle East. Our role in the Black Sea in seeing off Russian aggression is praiseworthy. Between 2014 and 2021, the Royal Navy deployed 11 warships in the Black Sea.

Turkey, however, introduced rules under the provision of the 1936 Montreux convention. Strategically and from an economic point of view, the Black Sea must remain open for Ukraine’s future security and prosperity. The RAF in Romania supports NATO’s Black Sea policing mission. However, our efforts are limited compared with Baltic countries. We have a defence treaty with Poland, we provide unilateral security assurances to Finland and Sweden, and we have a defence agreement with Estonia. I say this because, in the event of a settlement, it is certain that Crimea will remain Russian, thus offering the opportunity to damage Ukraine and contest the Black Sea again.

We should react to this decisively, including through a closer relationship with Romania, Europe’s biggest gas producer from offshore fields. It is good that Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria are removing floating mines with the help of two former Royal Navy Sandown class minesweepers. Just as our activities in the Baltic have given real, measurable confidence and security, we need to consider how our early success in the Black Sea should be used for Ukraine’s economic recovery, benefit and security. I hope that the Government will give this real consideration.