Sovereign Credit Ratings: EUC Report

Lord Myners Excerpts

Tuesday 15th November 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord Myners]

My Lords, I congratulate my noble friend Lord Harrison and his committee on the excellent work that they have done on this issue. They have produced a flawlessly argued case which, on the whole, the Government have very sensibly accepted in their written response. I share with the noble Baroness, Lady Noakes, a great interest in how the Minister will respond to what the Government have said.

I am delighted to see the Minister here as I was a little worried that the noble Lord may himself have been downgraded. The appointment of the noble Lord, Lord Green of Hurstpierpoint, as a member of the Treasury team was relayed to us in a press release issued very quietly by the Treasury and was not given a lot of publicity. He is to give advice to the Chancellor on issues relating to banking, which seems to me to be the job that the noble Lord, Lord Sassoon, was doing. I am delighted to see that the noble Lord, Lord Sassoon, is here and that he has not been downgraded, which would have been a great disappointment to me and to other Members of the House. It would be interesting to know why his advice on banking is not sufficient for the Chancellor, and why the Chancellor now needs the noble Lord, Lord Green, to be a member of the Treasury team.

As the noble Baroness, Lady Noakes, said, credit rating agencies have, to some extent, been used as scapegoats by those who should have taken responsibility for policy errors but instead sought to deflect the blame on to others. The credit rating agencies clearly played a lamentable role in the rating of SIVs, CDOs and other packaged products. They engaged in misdirected behaviour, employed flawed processes and had a business model based on suspect economics: the issuer pays protocol. Some would say, in respect of sovereign debt, that the case is not proven as to whether the rating agencies also had a role in triggering some element of the sovereign crisis. I am more inclined to give the rating agencies the benefit of the doubt and to say that they did not play any significant part in causing the sovereign crisis.

Here I disagree with paragraph 22 of the committee’s report, which says that credit rating agencies play a role in determining the cost to governments of borrowing. They simply do not. The realistic situation of the borrowing nation’s capacity to pay determines the price it pays for credit. The thermometer does not trigger the fever. The credit rating agencies measure the likelihood of repayment. They certainly do not have any impact on the cost of credit. Again, at the risk of giving even more credit to the noble Baroness, Lady Noakes, she was absolutely right in pointing to the case of France, where the credit rating agencies may say one thing about the rating of that country but the pricing of its debt in the markets says something rather different in terms of differentiation between France and Germany, the quality of covenant and the capacity to honour debt obligations.

The reality is that credit rating agencies are a lagging indicator rather than a leading one. They tend to verify the market’s judgment rather than to lead it. We should not be terribly surprised by that. My experience is that, on the whole, credit rating agencies employ rather average people. They are given extraordinary status by Mr Peston and others on television when they talk about changes in rating, but quite frankly, if you are good at the job, you work in an investment bank, a bank or a hedge fund; you do not work for Fitch, Standard & Poor’s or Moody’s. On the whole, these are at best average folk. They express opinions. Their opinions are worth little more than many other opinions—certainly a lot less than those of people who make decisions with real money or authoritative commentators such as Mr Martin Wolf in the Financial Times and others. In many ways, these credit rating agencies are of little consequence at all. We should probably not spend too much time on them, except that they tend to be taken rather seriously by the media and—more importantly—regulators.

We need to understand the way in which the credit rating agencies are hardwired at the moment into regulatory architecture and find a way to eliminate the central role that they play. In that respect, we should strongly support international efforts to reduce the role of credit rating agencies in helping to determine risk-weighted assets and other important calculations that feed into Basel and other capital requirements. Unfortunately, the role of the credit rating agencies is rather helped in this respect by their standing in America, under the SEC regulations, as nationally recognised agencies or quasi-regulatory authorities. This is a deep lacuna. I urge the Financial Policy Committee of the Bank of England to look at the role of credit rating agencies and see whether we can find a way of taking them out of the central role that they currently play.

The implementation of the credit rating agency directive will be in the hands of the European Securities and Markets Authority—ESMA. This has only recently been established but is an important agency because it will exercise direct regulatory authority. I hope the Minister will correct me if I am wrong here, but I believe that ESMA has the power to overrule national regulatory agencies. In other words, the FSA is subordinate to ESMA and could not, if it wished to, introduce higher standards. ESMA has been clear that it intends to ensure that its rules are enforced uniformly across the EU and in so doing will limit the ability of individual countries to require additional measures. Mr Steven Maijoor, the chair of ESMA, was quoted in the Financial Times recently as saying that,

“we are moving toward common supervisory standards”.

The regulations will not be based on the UK’s “comply or explain”. They will be enforced on all national regulatory agencies by ESMA. I would welcome an assurance from the Minister that he will stand up for self-determination of regulation in the UK and not allow us to be steamrollered by ESMA or any other part of the European regulatory architecture.

We saw some very flawed thinking from the European Commission on credit rating agencies—that there should be a government-sponsored CRA, the banning of the publication of ratings, and the pre-approval of methodology, which implies again some process by which these become nationally recognised outcomes rather than the opinions of rather average people. I worry very much about Mr Barnier. I met Mr Barnier when he was a Minister. He came to see us at the Treasury. He came down the corridor and I was watching him. I am a great fan of art and I was rather impressed that he stopped to look at every painting. I thought this is a man with whom I share a common interest—until I realised he was actually looking at his reflection in the glass on every painting, and adjusting his hair or his toupee. This to me is a man whom we should treat with a very long spoon. I hope the Minister will take due care in working with Mr Barnier because we have been forewarned that this man intends to seek even more powers than those he announced today. He said he wants to return to the issue of censoring rating agencies. I sincerely hope that the Government and the Opposition would have no part in endorsing such an activity.

The Financial Secretary to the Treasury—it is not the noble Lord, Lord Sassoon, but Mr Hoban—said in his letter to the noble Lord, Lord Roper, on 28 September that he would be reporting back to us on the work of the Financial Stability Board on rating agencies,

“which was due to report in mid September”.

He actually wrote the letter on 28 September, but I am accustomed to how timing and seasons change when Ministers come to author letters. I would be interested to know whether this reply has been produced and whether the Minister can tell us what the FSB has decided on credit rating agencies.

Finally, as my time expires, I regard the CRAs as just another of those innocent fools and victims who played a part in the financial crisis. Your Lordships have already had an excellent committee report on the auditors. We have now had a report on the credit rating agencies. I think attention should now be turned to the benefit consultants and, finally, to those rascals who decide whether a credit event has been caused in the credit default swaps. Plenty for the Minister to do even though he is now job-sharing with the noble Lord, Lord Green of Hurstpierpoint.