Coronavirus: New Cases

Lord Morse Excerpts

Monday 11th July 2022 Lords Chamber

[Lord Kamall (Con)]

I was making the point that there is the benefit of hindsight but also the fallacy of hindsight. The benefit is that we learn from mistakes we made in the past. We learn from previous actions what worked and did not work, particularly in a local context. Some of my friends in other countries tell me that what we did in England may not necessarily have worked in their country, and vice versa. There is also the fallacy of hindsight, when people say that in the same situation, 18 months or two years ago, they would have done something completely different with the information we had then. That is what is known in social sciences as the fallacy of hindsight.

[Lord Morse (CB)]

My Lords, I just want to be clear about something. One mistake we made before was not paying attention earlier to predictive modelling from the NHS. Are we sitting on any information that we are getting from the NHS now about what exponential rate may occur in this virus? Please can the Minister reassure me on that.

[Lord Kamall (Con)]

We rely on data from the UK Health Security Agency. It monitors this, and looks at ONS data, data on hospitalisations and the capacity of the NHS to absorb the increase in patient numbers if there is one. That is where we take our advice from and that is what would trigger future action, should it be needed.