Budget Statement

Lord McFall of Alcluith Excerpts

Wednesday 25th March 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord McFall of Alcluith (Lab)]

My Lords, it is a pleasure to engage in this debate. I want to focus on three areas: first, the fantasy figures given by the Government in the Budget; secondly, the productivity puzzle; and, thirdly, the issues raised in Who is my Neighbour?, the Church of England document, which was welcome.

The Budget last week was nothing other than a party political broadcast with fantasy figures. The OBR was very clear: it is a rollercoaster by which public spending will fall to the floor for the first two years of the next Parliament, with cuts the gravity of which has not been seen to date. But miraculously, it will all recover the year before the next election, with £12 billion extra spending for largesse. It seems that the Chancellor’s reputation grows with every failure. Would he balance the books by 2015? Easy. He failed. In the Autumn Statement last year he predicted a £23 billion surplus. He failed; it is now £7 billion. He promised £12 billion in future welfare cuts. When asked to explain from where they would come, he could not explain. Notwithstanding all the rhetoric on social security, it has done nothing because the social security budget was £220 billion in 2010, and is still £220 billion. The policy in those areas has failed.

As the IFS has said, we are left guessing about radical cuts. The NAO’s Amyas Morse has said that the Government are performing radical surgery without knowing where the heart is. This has ensured that the election debate to come will be about spending cuts. The OBR has said that that sharper squeeze in 2016-18 is indeed savage. The IFS questions whether cuts on that scale can ever be delivered. This is against a background of the slowest recovery on record. Paul Johnson of the IFS was clear. He said that household incomes crawling back to pre-recession levels seven years after the crisis is no cause for celebration.

We have a Chancellor under whom consumption, rather than production, has defined the economic approach. The biggest failure has been mentioned: the lack of productivity growth between 2010 and 2015. It has been stable for the past 40 years, although not at great levels; but it was nonexistent from 2010 to 2015, thereby undermining wages and incomes. The failure to understand productivity undermines confidence in the accuracy of any figures produced by this Government. The economy normally grows at lower rates after financial crises, but stagnation in productivity is extremely rare, and that is what we have witnessed. The question for the next Government is: is this temporary or permanent? The answer will determine our future economic prospects.

There is a dissonance between what the Government state is a “long-term economic plan” and what is happening in the country. Help to Buy ISAs and pennies off a pint are insignificant compared to what is happening in the country, particularly when put against the big picture. That big picture, on which the Government have failed, is a lack of a national infrastructure board, a lack of decentralisation to ensure that local economies prosper, and a lack of a productivity plan. We need a 20-year productivity plan, with annual reports to Parliament, so that we get this right. The Government have gone on about supply-side policies, but such policies on transport, housing and skills have been wanting. I am a member of the Economic Affairs Committee, which today published a report on HS2. The £50 billion of public investment, with £31.5 billion in direct subsidy, should be set against the background of no national transport infrastructure plan. How can one plan for a country without that? When Sir David Higgins came before the committee he was very clear. He supported an east-west line for the north. I asked him why. He said, “I talked to people in Manchester, who told me that it was a good idea, and I accepted that”. That is not the way to go about developing our transport and economic policies.

In 2013 we completed the lowest number of houses since 2010, and that includes a reduction of 5% in 2012. There was a time, in the 1950s, when a Tory Government under Harold Macmillan had an ambition to build 300,000 houses, and they did. Sadly, there is no ambition here on one of the most pressing problems facing people in this country, particularly young people.

This Budget is a manifesto for a meaner Britain. We need to re-inject a politics that is about beliefs and society. That is why I welcome the Church of England report, Who is my Neighbour?. It is very clear that today in Britain it is impossible to support a family on the minimum wage. The report notes burgeoning in-work poverty, whereby 75% of the welfare cuts are to the working-age population. The stark truth is that parents with low-wage jobs and young people have suffered most in this crisis. If we are to recommend a manifesto that is more tolerant, efficient and productive for the country, we could start with the six key values which the Church of England bishops have written in their letter regarding the general election.

The debates about the Budget have centred on the dry currency of figures, rather than on people’s lives. But we have a choice. A no less august body than the Financial Times was very clear in its leader when it said:

“Nothing is inevitable about Britain’s fiscal path”.

We can:

“Pursue an absolute surplus with further tax cuts”,

and thereby have,

“deep cuts in welfare and unprotected departments”,

Or we can:

“Raise £10bn in tax and allow borrowing for investment, and public spending austerity may come to an end next year”.

Those are the words of the Financial Times, not mine.

These are all feasible choices. No one can say at the next election, “There is no alternative”. People’s future livelihoods are indeed at stake at a time when there is disengagement and disillusionment among the electorate. The centre is being questioned as to whether it can hold in Westminster. There is a duty to consider the human and the societal elements, and the sentiments embodied in Who is my Neighbour? are a good start.

“The care of human life and happiness, and not their destruction, is the only legitimate object of good government”.

Those words are not from the Church of England document or Labour, but Thomas Jefferson. That cry is still relevant hundreds of years later. The Government have failed in all three areas and it will be up to the next Government to tackle these important subjects after the election comes in fewer than 50 days.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Deighton]

Inequality has not increased at all between the previous Government and this Government. That is not to diminish the problems that people at the bottom end of the scale face. This Government have tried to deal with the root causes of poverty: worklessness, low earnings and poor education. That is where the Government’s premier programmes have been addressed. The number of workless households has fallen by about 600,000 under this Government. Many noble Lords, including my noble friend Lord Shipley, have commented on the situation with respect to employment and the number of jobs that have been created. The noble Baroness, Lady Smith, asked how tax receipts could come down when employment went up. The reason was that we moved up personal allowances and took people out of tax. It is as simple as that.

This Government intervened in many critical ways to protect living standards for people. I shall not go through the list again because we do not have time. The noble Baroness, Lady Thornton, and the noble Lord, Lord Davies, cited zero-hours contracts. They represent just over 2% of the total workforce. Of the jobs created, the majority are at the high or middle end and the vast majority of them are full time. The party opposite should accept that creating 2 million new jobs is okay. It does not have to keep describing what the problems with it are. It is actually a good thing; it is part of the recovery. It is much better to have those people in work. As I have said, the jobs are principally at the middle and high end and they are permanent jobs.

Our focus has been on trying to protect the young and old. We have protected pensioners through the triple lock. The measure again tells us that pensioner poverty is at an all-time low. I listened carefully to the comments made by the noble Baroness, Lady Thornton, about disability. Probably my most rewarding experience in the past 10 years was working on the Paralympics and seeing the difference that they made to people’s perception of the ability in disability. That is a legacy that, on a cross-party basis, we should absolutely build on.

I shall talk about spending cuts as there is significant concern about the potential impact of continuing, in the words of the noble Lord, Lord Layard, the dismantling of public services. That is absolutely not the intention of spending taxpayers’ money more carefully, of looking at ways of reforming public services, of being focused on the outputs and of being more efficient about the inputs that go into them. There is still significant opportunity for reform in delivering public services more efficiently, and that is where the focus of the spending cuts should and will be.

The noble Viscount, Lord Hanworth, asked where privatisation fitted into it. I make no apology for this party being careful with taxpayers’ money. If you really want to look at the record of this Government, we adhered precisely to the spending plan we set out five years ago. We have delivered that in a disciplined way with the public’s view of public services being that they have in fact improved. That is the evidence.

A number of noble Lords, including the noble Lords, Lord Bilimoria and Lord Davies, referred to the defence budget. Let me restate that at £34 billion, we have the second-largest defence budget in NATO. It is the largest in the EU. We are currently spending 2% and we will decide what to do at the next spending round. Again, my preferred approach to spending is that we have to have a plan and understand what we are trying to accomplish, and the budget numbers flow from that. It is about what you are trying to accomplish. I am delighted that the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Portsmouth was able to acknowledge the tripling of the church roof fund.

Let us switch to the deficit. It is at the heart of the differences in fiscal policy between the parties. We have discussed the case put by the noble Lord, Lord Skidelsky, over the past few years. I was taught Keynesian economics at the feet of the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, so I certainly understand the theory, but in 2010 this country had a massive, unsustainable deficit and the practical situation was that action needed to be taken to reduce that deficit in order for the public and the markets to have confidence. Frankly, we were faced with no other option but to deal with that as the primary objective and responsibility of government at that time. Had we not dealt with it as effectively as we did, it would have been an irresponsible act and would have left us substantially exposed to future debt costs. It is a bit like a vastly overweight person saying, “I’m going to start a diet in two years’ time, but in the mean time, keep serving me the chips and chocolate”. That is how it would have been.

[Lord McFall of Alcluith]

The Minister talks about the debt, but let us think of the debt that they inherited in 2010, which was £870 billion. That figure has now almost doubled to more than £1,500 billion. Why has that debt doubled in a period when there has been a mania from the Tory Front Bench about having to pay off the debt?

[Lord Deighton]

Technically what happened was that we stuck to the spending plans, growth did not recover as we expected, principally because the rest of the world was in recession, so the tax receipts did not come in, and the deficit continued to go up. That is the reality of the situation. If you listen to the two sides on the deficit argument, one is asking why we have not cut fast enough and the other is saying that we have to cut a little slower. I think that, given the circumstances, my right honourable friend the Chancellor has navigated the balance very effectively. My noble friend Lord Flight made that point.

[Lord McFall of Alcluith]

The Minister has failed to answer. In the light of his failure to answer, will the Government adopt a more modest approach to this situation and recognise their failure on debt over the past five years and the kid on that they are trying to exercise on the British public?

[Lord Deighton]

The Government’s strategy is crystal clear. The benefit of getting the deficit under control is absolutely worth it in terms of fixing the roof while the sun is shining. That is the philosophy. To do it over a two-year period and to get control of our public finances so that we can then grow and focus on, for example, the productivity argument I shall speak about in a minute is the critical part of the argument.