Middle East

Lord Luce Excerpts

Friday 16th March 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Luce]

My Lords, I am delighted to follow the noble Baroness, Lady Symons, and her formidable tour d’horizon based on her tremendous knowledge and experience of the Middle East. I will start by making a few general reflections before coming to one or two specific points.

I agree with the Minister that the Arab world has started down a road that will be long and hard. It is exciting, but it is also very dangerous, and the early euphoria of so many people, with which we all sympathised, has now led to greater realism some 13 or 14 months later. Each country is very different. Arab civilisation was perhaps at its greatest in its first 500 years. Arabs today, particularly young ones, are yearning for more freedom, more knowledge and more education, and the women yearn to have a greater say in the affairs of their country.

The dramatic changes of the past few months have brought about economic disruption, which is inevitable, and this raises the question that the Minister referred to: the challenge for each of these countries to manage growing expectations. We think of the experience of South Africa, the expectations raised when Mandela became the first black president and the very great problems that it is going to have to grapple with in coming years. Then there are the richer Arab countries with oil that are throwing money at supporting Arabs on benefits and investing in infrastructure, the public sector and so on. That is fine up to a point, but it is unlikely in the long term to answer the aspirations of younger people.

All this is against the background of increasing fundamentalism, strains between Sunni and Shia—just as we had strains between Roman Catholics and Protestants—the historic strains between the Arabs and the Persians and the growing intolerance that arises from that. We have already had a debate in this House about the treatment of the Christians, who are an integral part of the Middle East. It is interesting to observe that the three Abrahamic faiths have managed historically from time to time to live peacefully together. Is it not about time that they renewed their common bonds rather than divided?

Then there is the reference by all of us to democracy. It has taken us centuries to evolve the system we have today, and each of those countries, with different degrees of sophistication, will need to develop the rule of law and a free press to create the right conditions. Some argue that there should be no elections until that happens. I think that is wrong. I think elections can help to point countries in the right direction. Certainly, we have seen that in Egypt and Tunisia and more recently in Kuwait.

From all this has emerged the political parties—the Minister referred to this—particularly the Islamic parties coming into parliaments in Egypt, Tunisia and Kuwait, which brings out the question of the relationship between religion and politics, with which we have grappled in Europe over time. We still have an established church here. We have had Christian democratic parties in Europe. They will have to grapple with these problems too, hopefully taking Turkey as much as possible as a model to follow.

All these countries are grappling with systems of accountability and the rule of law, and each one is different. Egypt has to decide on the relationship between political parties and the military. Tunisia has stronger middle classes, women play a prominent role, and it has a civic society. Libya has had 42 years of dictatorship and now has been given a chance. Syria, of course, is a disaster, but one positive point emerging from this is that Hamas appears to be turning away from Syria and Iran towards the Muslim Brotherhood.

I should like to say a word about the Gulf monarchies, many of which could evolve into constitutional monarchies if they handle things in the right way. Speaking as someone who has been to Bahrain since the 1950s, the spring of last year was a great disappointment to me. The events were extremely bad and damaging, but at the same time, when something positive happens, it is very important that in this country, in the media and in Parliament, we acknowledge and encourage it. To my mind, it was remarkable that the king decided to appoint an international commission and allow it to make recommendations, all of which he has committed to fulfil. I wonder how many other countries would do that. Would we be prepared to have an international commission and implement all its recommendations? It is important that we give encouragement where encouragement is due; otherwise our influence in those areas will erode.

It is a polarised society with a Shia majority and a Sunni Government. It is vital for the Bahraini Government to demonstrate that they are treating the Shia and the Sunnis as equal under the law. Here, the position of Saudi Arabia is critical, as is our relationship with Saudi Arabia. Although King Abdullah is trying to introduce some reforms in this country, we acknowledge that there is a Shia community on the Bahrain borders. If Saudi Arabia tries to restrain the Bahraini Government from reforming, all I can say is that it could be totally and utterly counterproductive for Saudi Arabia, let alone the other Gulf countries. I hope that the British Government and other friends of Saudi Arabia are having an intense dialogue with it about that.

I end on the Indian Ocean and the Horn of Africa, interlinked with the Middle East. Some 25 per cent of world trade passes through the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Aden, where it is threatened by piracy and terrorism. The Malacca Strait’s experience of piracy shows that it is essential to stabilise the littoral states. I congratulate the British Government on taking the lead and convening an international conference to try to build stability in that area, particularly in the Horn, and to work with the international community in getting the regions of the Horn and the clans to co-operate together by building up the peacekeeping forces and working to defeat piracy through criminalising the proceeds of ransom money.

A key to this is Somaliland, which is becoming increasingly stable and successful. The British Government are rightly giving support to enhancing security, and strengthening health and education services, the private sector and so on. But the Somalis are a very proud people. I have worked with them. They are an independent-minded people who are ruthlessly suppressed by Siad Barre, the President until 1991. It is crucial that we build on the success of Somaliland and give it every encouragement. I hope that it will be encouraged to negotiate with the newly formed and emerging Government in Mogadishu so that it can decide what kind of relationship it will have with them in the future.

I have run out of time and I hope that others will deal with the very difficult problems of Palestine and Iran.