Economic Outlook and Furlough Scheme Changes

Lord Livermore Excerpts

Thursday 18th June 2020 Lords Chamber

[Lord Livermore (Lab) [V]]

My Lords, as well as the UK recording the highest excess death rate from Covid-19 of any country, it is now forecast by the OECD to suffer the worst recession in the G7, with a projected fall in GDP of 11.5% this year. Why is the UK likely to experience over this year the worst economic impact from the coronavirus crisis of all industrialised countries?

[Baroness Penn (Con)]

My Lords, the noble Lord is correct that we have a severe outlook for this year, but that OECD report also forecasts us to have one of the strongest recoveries of the large countries it looked at. If two years are put together, we emerge close to the top of the table.

The noble Lord asked for some of the reasons why we will be particularly badly affected. I can point to two: one is the services nature of our economy, which has been particularly affected by the lockdown; the second is the relative openness of our economy, which means that we are more affected by changes in global demand.