Integrated Review Refresh

Lord Lancaster of Kimbolton Excerpts

Tuesday 14th March 2023 Lords Chamber

[Lord Goldsmith of Richmond Park (Con)]

My Lords, it is not true that these are vague aspirations. I think I said in response to the noble Lord, Lord Collins, that we are committed to investing £5 billion over the next two years to replenish our ammunition stocks, modernise our nuclear enterprise and fund the next phase of the AUKUS partnership. We are committed to spending at least 2.5% of GDP in the longer term. As I said, I cannot provide a precise timeline on that, but there is pretty clear evidence of our intent in the commitments that have been quantified and given a timeline.

[Lord Lancaster of Kimbolton (Con)]

My Lords, I welcome the Statement, but like others, I am slightly concerned about the gap between the rhetoric and the reality. Successive Governments have had a habit of defining success by financial input. Of the extra £5 billion, which I welcome, £3 billion is for nuclear—it is probably already held in the Treasury contingency and simply being drawn forward—and £2 billion is simply replacing munitions we have given to Ukraine. It is widely accepted that defence needs £11 billion just to stand still. That is a £6 billion deficit, meaning that there will have to be cuts. The reason why it is so important to know when we will meet 2.5% is that, without knowing that date, we do not know what needs to be cut and when. That is why we need an answer on that.

I declare my interest as a serving member of the Army. In pillar 2—“Deter, defend and compete across all domains” —paragraph 24 has the aspiration that with our military presence in the Baltics, we may be able to surge to a brigade; that is some 5,000 people. Ten years ago, we had 10,000 soldiers in Afghanistan. Twenty years ago, we had a division of 20,000 in Iraq. Yet now, we may be able to surge to a brigade in the Baltic states. If that does not underline to my noble friend the Minister the perilous state of our Armed Forces right now without adequate financial investment, I do not know what does.

[Lord Goldsmith of Richmond Park (Con)]

On the financial commitment, I will just clarify that the extra £5 billion for defence is in addition to the overall spending powers set out in the Autumn Statement and was agreed with the Chancellor as part of the wider Spring Budget plans. It is not recycled finance. In 2020, the Ministry of Defence received what I believe was the largest sustained spending increase since the end of the Cold War: a £24 billion uplift in cash terms. I think the noble Lord asked whether or not some of the money being spent in Ukraine was part of that. The extra funding that was provided at the Budget—and I will correct the record if I am wrong—will be in addition to the £2.3 billion of military support we have already committed to provide to Ukraine in 2023, matching what we spent last year.