Iran

Lord Lamont of Lerwick Excerpts

Tuesday 30th November 2010 Grand Committee

[Lord Lamont of Lerwick]

I draw noble Lords’ attention to my entry in the Register of Members’ Interests in that I am chairman of the British-Iranian Chamber of Commerce and director of a company with interests in Iran. I join the noble Lord, Lord Corbett, in utterly condemning human rights abuses in Iran, particularly after the elections, such as the show trials, the beatings by the Basij, the shootings of young people in the street and the mass rapes, as revealed by the cleric and presidential candidate, Mehdi Karroubi. As the late Ayatollah Montazeri said before his death, the Islamic republic is becoming neither Islamic nor a republic.

The Iranian regime at the moment is weak domestically but strong regionally. Regionally it is strong because of its militant opposition to Israel compared with the so-called moderate Arab regimes, but also because of its alliance with its proxies: Hezbollah, Hamas and the Medhi army. These alliances give Iran an asymmetric defence in depth if attacked. All the military hardware of the United States and Israel will be irrelevant compared with that lethal potential response.

I recently read the opinion of Peter Jenkins, our former ambassador to the IAEA, who somewhat unusually doubted whether Iran was developing nuclear weapons as opposed to reaching the technological capability that gave it the option of developing them further. He argued that Iran was not in breach of its legal obligations but that we could do nothing to stop it reaching the threshold. I am not saying that he was right on the former, but he might be right on the latter. I hope that sanctions will change Iran’s attitude, but we must recognise that there will be a greater source of illegal trade and more income for the military security conglomerate of the revolutionary guards. Sanctions are also an opportunity for the regime to blame its own economic failings on the enemy abroad. Lastly, sanctions provide the Government with a perfect alibi to crack down on opposition within the country.

There are obviously some out there who do not believe that sanctions will work. I refer to those behind the targeted assassination of Iranian scientists working on the nuclear programme. The day before yesterday, one scientist was murdered in Tehran and another wounded in car bomb attacks. Earlier this year, another nuclear scientist was murdered. I do not expect the Minister to comment on this, but I do not believe that these attacks are inspired by either of the two King Abdullahs. They are completely counterproductive and will not encourage Iranian public opinion to support a flexible approach.

The present carrot and stick approach has been tried many times before and I doubt that it will succeed again. There are three things that might put pressure on Iran and encourage it to stop trying to reach a nuclear threshold. First, as has already been mentioned, Iran has its own nuclear concerns. Regional nuclear disarmament, beginning with Israel, is important. Secondly, there is a need to settle the Palestinian issue and create a state that is acceptable to the Palestinians. This will undermine Iran’s regional position. I also believe that the BBC Persian service, Murdoch’s new Farsi channel, Facebook and Radio Liberty are very important in encouraging change in Iran. There is a rising tide of discontent within the country. Demography and the cosmopolitanism of the young people of Iran make it impossible for the present political framework to survive in the long run. We must make sure that our actions support rather than delay change.