Middle East: Recent Developments

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Friday 13th July 2012 Lords Chamber

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[Lord Howell of Guildford]

That this House takes note of recent developments in the Middle East.

[The Minister of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Lord Howell of Guildford)]

My Lords, I thank the House for giving me the opportunity to update your Lordships on the truly momentous events in the Middle East and north Africa since our last debate on these and related issues in March. I say straightaway that, viewing the whole scene in the Middle East and north Africa, we see progress and of course we see setbacks. It must be viewed as a mixture of cautious hopes and serious concerns.

In a region with its full share of dangerous and grim events—only this morning, we have news of a further horrific massacre—let me at least start my comments with something a bit more positive. I do so by quoting from a report that came to my hand only this week from our embassy in Tripoli. That is the Tripoli in Libya, as opposed to the other Tripoli. It said:

“Joyful and moving scenes at polling stations as Libyans vote for the first time in 47 years. A small number of violent incidents disrupt polling in the East, but the Election Commission and ordinary people do all they can to ensure voting can continue. Initial assessments from domestic observer groups find the elections well organised, transparent and fair. Turnout projected at 62%, including large numbers of women”.

These are people who, a year ago, were fighting each other and fighting against a brutal tyrant. Despite all the many other problems, this at least indicates that there can be and is progress in some regions.

I will come back to that good story in Libya in a moment in more detail, but I turn straight away from it to a much worse story: the Syrian tragedy, which is a vortex of killing and atrocities. When I updated the House in March, it had been a year since the protest began. It is now 17 months and as many as 17,000 people may have been slaughtered. Hundreds more are dying every week, predominantly at the hands of the regime, which is perpetrating horrifying violence against its own people. The independent UN commission of inquiry has recorded widespread and shocking human rights violations committed by the Syrian authorities, including arbitrary arrests and detentions, torture, sexual assault and rape. The commission also reported on the increasing levels of opposition violence. We of course urge all parties to end the violence. That is what we must do, but there can be little surprise that 600,000 people have fled their homes, with 500,000 of them remaining in Syria and nearly 100,000 now being refugees across Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq.

The Joint UN and Arab League special envoy for Syria, Kofi Annan, whom I had the opportunity to meet the other evening, set out on 16 March a six-point plan to end the violence and to start a political process. He has made it clear that the primary responsibility for implementation must lie with the Syrian regime, but we see little progress on the ground. Violence has intensified over the last few weeks. Nevertheless, the plan as put forward by Kofi Annan remains the best framework and hope of achieving a ceasefire and political transition. This is why my right honourable friend the Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary, William Hague, travelled to Geneva at the end of last month for the first meeting of the Syria Action Group. This meeting, which included Russia and China, agreed: that there should be a transitional governing body in Syria; that it would be made up of representatives of the present Syrian Government, the Opposition and other groups; and that it should be formed on the basis of mutual consent. It is our clear understanding that this would preclude President Assad, from whose circles we note that certain defections have taken place. However, one has to recognise that the hard core around him remains for the moment.

The third Friends of Syria meeting on 6 July in Paris, where over 100 nations and international organisations came together, endorsed that plan. It recognised that the international community must hold all parties, starting with the Syrian Government, responsible for complying with the action group plan. The Friends of Syria meeting resolved to support a Chapter VII resolution in the UN Security Council. We are working with the Security Council to impose tighter sanctions on those who are responsible for the obscene violations of human rights that we have seen, heard and read about.

Given the very grave and deteriorating situation in Syria, we are now urging all our partners to do more than to respond to the humanitarian plight of innocent Syrian civilians. I suppose one has to ask whether we can get the Russians to move more onside, too, in this task. They are making certain moves, reported in the newspapers today, about shipping movements and use of the port of Tartus. We will have to see how that works out but, for our part, on 5 July my right honourable friend the Development Secretary announced a doubling of our humanitarian aid to £17.5 million. That additional £9 million will deliver emergency food assistance to 80,000 people a month, shelter to 9,000 and support for 4,000 more refugees outside Syria.

I began with a mention of the situation in Libya. This was an historic step and Libyans rightly should be proud of the achievement that they have secured so far. Frankly, the United Kingdom has a right to be proud as well to have supported the electoral preparations. We were the largest donor to the UN election funds; we funded training for domestic observers; UK police officers have helped to provide training on the co-ordination of election security; and we have provided significant support to empower women and youth to participate in the political process. We, the United Kingdom, stood shoulder to shoulder with the Libyan people as they sought to protect themselves and fight for basic freedoms. Since liberation was declared nine months ago, tangible progress has been made. The election story that I began with highlights that. We look forward to the swift formation of the national congress and the appointment of a Government to take forward these issues swiftly. We will, of course, maintain our support for Libyans as they continue on their path towards a peaceful, stable, prosperous and democratic country.

I turn for a moment to Egypt, which has taken momentous steps in the transition process. My right honourable friend the Prime Minister wrote to the newly elected President Morsi to congratulate him and my right honourable friend the Foreign Secretary praised the Egyptian people for their commitment to the democratic process. We have made clear the importance of sustained progress towards a legitimate, inclusive and accountable Government, underpinned by strong and responsible institutions—including the Parliament—and a new constitution which represents the interests of all Egyptians. As of now, we are obviously seeing a clash of wills between the Muslim Brotherhood and the military authorities. Perhaps one might observe that this was an inevitable part of the transition process. Our hope, and indeed our efforts, must be in support of seeing that it is resolved calmly and judiciously, not by violence.

The success of the Muslim Brotherhood in the recent Egyptian elections and the successes of other parties inspired by Islam in the region have undoubtedly created some nervousness about the implications for the development of democracy and respect for human rights in the region. In particular, some are concerned that the Arab spring and its consequences have endangered the security of minorities, including Christians, in the Middle East. That, no doubt, is a matter that your Lordships will want to raise during today’s debate.

In Egypt, we have been supportive of interfaith dialogue through a project that creates partnerships between Muslim and Christian groups to train mixed teams in conflict resolution skills. We welcome the work of Al-Azhar University in promoting interfaith dialogue against sectarianism. Of course we recognise that there are problems but we are determined to help resolve them.

Tunisia, where the present phase of protest and empowerment began, has made considerable progress in its transition, including on free expression and political pluralism. We now expect the Constituent Assembly to produce a final version of a new constitution by 23 October and elections will be held in March next year.

This all needs to be reinforced by economic development; obviously, these things go together. The whole Maghreb region is not very well integrated—in fact, some say that it is the least economically integrated region in the world. However, Tunisia has shown admirable support for intra-Maghreb co-operation in the five-nation Arab Maghreb Union and will host the next Arab Maghreb summit in October, the first for 16 years. my honourable friend Alastair Burt, the Minister for the Middle East region, has just presided over and addressed an excellent conference at Wilton Park, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office support entity at Wiston House, dealing with Maghreb unification and development, a highly successful event.

Elsewhere in the region, in many areas change has been very frustrating. In Iraq the political process is deadlocked, with attempts to bring a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Maliki. The continued internal wrangling is detracting from Iraq’s progress on key political and economic developments. The issues between Kurdistan and Baghdad remain to be resolved. However, I have to note that, despite the difficult politics, Iraq’s progress towards its oil production target is on track. Indeed, some say that it will achieve production of 5 million barrels a day and very high exports by the end of this year, so there is some light in that situation.

It is vital for Iraq’s democracy and its continued economic progress that all parties find a way to engage constructively, within the constitution, to resolve their differences. We will continue to encourage a political process that aids Iraq’s democratic and economic development. We also note, and commend, the efforts of the United Nations to broker a peaceful and durable solution to the situation at Camp Ashraf, which has been a matter of great concern.

Then there is Iran, which continues to be a source of deep unease throughout the region and indeed the world. We remain committed to a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear issue. In three rounds of talks with Iran since April—in Istanbul, Baghdad and Moscow—the permanent five members of the UN Security Council plus Germany, which are leading the negotiations with Iran on behalf of the international community, have put a set of proposals to the Iranian Government about how they could start to build confidence in their nuclear activities. The proposals focus on Iran’s enrichment activity, which at present is on a scale that can have no plausible civilian justification. We believe that Iran now needs to reflect on these proposals and start taking concrete steps to reassure the international community. Until Iran acts, the pressure on it will only grow. The EU oil embargo on Iran came into force a fortnight ago on 1 July and will now be strengthened, and over the coming weeks we will be working closely with our partners to increase pressure much further.

In Bahrain, progress over the past four months has, frankly, been minimal. We await the implementation of the recommendations of the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry and continue to call for progress to be made. Waiting, though, is not enough. The Government there must go further and implement meaningful political reforms as well. That message is not only for our own consumption; it is one that I and my fellow Ministers in the FCO have delivered to the Bahraini Foreign Minister, the Minister of the Interior and the Minister of Justice, all of whom have visited the UK over the past month. Some have criticised us for this engagement and we may hear more criticism, but we believe that dialogue is essential if the reforms that we all want are to take place.

In Yemen, we welcome President Hadi’s leadership of the political transition, particularly the progress made on a national dialogue and the reorganisation of military figures. He has achieved notable successes in the fight against violent extremism, pushing al-Qaeda out of the towns since 2011, which is a definite move forward. The trouble with Yemen is that the economy remains infirm and the humanitarian situation, particularly in the south, is growing ever more serious. We have led efforts at the UN to secure UNSC Resolution 2051, adopted unanimously on 12 June, to support Yemen’s transition, and we co-chaired, with Saudi Arabia and Yemen, a Friends of Yemen meeting on 23 May in Riyadh to agree how the international community can best support Yemen. That is the scene there.

Then, of course, we come to a matter of continuing and rightful interest to your Lordships, the Arab-Israeli conflict, which continues to remain urgent and is still very far from resolution. We welcome the recent efforts by the Palestinian and Israeli leaderships to renew direct contacts, but we are concerned about escalations of violence in Gaza again, particularly attacks targeting civilians. We have urged both sides to focus on dialogue, to avoid steps that could undermine the prospects for peace and to work towards the resumption of direct negotiations.

Despite the undoubted frustrations and tragedies, the situation overall in the Middle East and north Africa has developed considerably in the past four months, and in some areas is going forward in the right direction. As my right honourable friend William Hague said on Monday—in The Hague, actually—in his enormously authoritative speech on international justice:

“The Arab spring has shattered the idea that nations can maintain long-term stability and prosperity without human rights, political participation and economic freedom for their citizens”.

I would add to that, “These forces are of course the outcome of the information revolution that has empowered people and weakened Governments everywhere, and not, I may say, just in the Middle East and the north African region but everywhere in the world”.

One has to ask whether the changes that we are witnessing could change the character of the relationship between the Middle East region and the rest of the world. Without doubt, it is not only the internal political changes of the Arab spring, but the profound and fundamental changes in the global energy market which are being highly influential on the whole region and how we look at it. Energy, like politics, is becoming increasingly multipolar as energy demand shifts away from the OECD and energy supply becomes far more diffuse world wide, with newly exploitable, massive sources of hydrocarbons opening up in the Americas, Asia-Pacific and all round Africa. In fact, a second energy revolution, beyond and riding with the green revolution, is in progress.

None of this alters the fact that the Middle East and north Africa lie at the doorstep of Europe and constitute not just our wider neighbourhood but some of our key markets and our close friendships. Instability breeds insecurity. The political success of the countries of the region is intimately bound up with our security and prosperity in the United Kingdom as well as that of our friends, allies and global partners. This has been called the interconnectedness of history. It is the point we have now reached in the globalisation of our interests and our concerns, and that is why this Government and, especially, my right honourable friend the Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary, have worked tirelessly, energetically and creatively in support of peace and development in the region. We will continue to do so. I beg to move.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

My Lords, of course it is impossible to do full justice to all the wisdom and analysis uttered during this debate this morning and this afternoon. I shall not be able to answer every question, although I shall attempt to cover as much ground as I can. I say straight away to the noble Lord, Lord Wood, that it is very welcome to hear his support for my right honourable friend William Hague in his call that the UN mission in Syria must be able to access Traymseh in the Hama district quickly and without hindrance so that it can carry out an independent investigation into what has happened and who is responsible for the shocking atrocities that have been reported. Naturally, that makes us redouble our efforts to agree a Chapter 7 resolution of the United Nations Security Council. I shall return to some of other comments of the noble Lord later.

A number of themes and preoccupations run through this. There is the call about the need for balance, with which the noble Lord, Lord Haskel, set off our debate. It is very easy and right to call for balance but it is extremely difficult to achieve as we weave our way through these rival claims, often with a lack of clear information about what has happened, who has said what and what is going on. However, this is obviously the aim that Her Majesty’s Government seek constantly to achieve in a very complex situation; and, as the noble Lord, Lord Anderson, reminded us in his excellent speech, it is a constantly changing situation. The emphasis of these different issues moves rapidly from one area to another.

Let me go through some of the detail. First, we heard from my noble friend Lady Falkner who straight away touched on Iran, which has been an issue throughout the debate, and whether tensions would be rising among Israeli policymakers about the possibility of attack. These are issues that the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, also raised, as did the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, my noble friend Lord Sheikh and many others. As a general observation, we take the closest possible interest in Israeli thinking and reactions to the evolution of policy that goes on. Our policy is entirely intact towards Iran, having had these three series of discussions. Pressure and engagement are the dual tracks we are pursuing.

It is true that the threat to the Strait of Hormuz, which we have heard inevitably and have heard before, may come along but Hormuz can be at least partially bypassed by other pipeline developments. I think my noble friend Lord Sheikh touched on this. The developments include the Fujairah pipeline, which can carry some extra oil and cut out the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, this is a serious issue. It affects world perceptions, international crude oil prices and so on. This is the area of threats and actions, which we must be right to seek to avoid by maintaining sensible negotiation. We agree that negotiation is obviously the best path forward, as the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, emphasised. However, it must be negotiation and if we cannot achieve progress on that front then the pressure will grow. I described some measures that are already being taken and will follow from the 1 July oil embargo. One has to be realistic about that.

My noble friend Lady Falkner also asked about Diego Garcia. Supposing the scenario darkened, which I naturally hope it would not, and there was a military development of some kind, she asked what it would be used for. The answer is obvious. If Israel was to take military action, the United States would be involved and if the United States was involved we would be involved. This would be a triggering of global action and Diego Garcia would therefore obviously be dragged into it. However, this is a scenario of the future that we are anxious to avoid by the negotiation path. I make that absolutely clear.

The noble Lord, Lord Empey, rightly observed that our democracy is not the only version. He is absolutely right. There is a tendency, which many of us in your Lordships’ House know we should seek to resist, to arrive with packaged lectures on how democracy should work in cultures where, frankly, it works in completely different ways. It is always wise to bear that in mind. The noble Lord asked about compensation following all the dark Libyan doings of the past under Colonel Gaddafi, which have led to sadness, tragedy and violence in Northern Ireland, and how the public and the Government’s approach fitted in with the private search for individual compensation. I do not find the difficulty with that which he seemed to find. The aim of government policy is to repair relationships generally with a number of measures that we are taking, leaving the quest for individual compensation in private hands. If he has more worries about that, I am happy to go into it with him in future.

My noble friend Lord Lamont said, in a very impressive speech, “Don’t arm the Syrian rebels”. We are not; our policy is only to provide non-lethal equipment and advice, and that is what we are doing. The people who are being armed are the Assad regime. We know about Iran; I cannot give the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, the detail that he wants because we just do not have it, but we know that arms are passing from Iran to the regime. We are also deeply concerned by reports of Russia’s supplies to the regime. We can all read the latest reports in the newspapers about additional Russian warships going to the port of Tartus, some of which may be laden with equipment, helicopters and so on, that could be and perhaps are being used by the Assad regime. The reality, I am afraid, is that arms are being poured into this lethal, miserable and tragic situation. My noble friend Lord Risby spoke with great authority about the Syrian scene and about the inevitability of regime change. I hope that that is right; as I said in my opening remarks, we are watching carefully to see whether serious defections from the Assad circle are beginning. That is what we have to continue watching for.

Predictably, a number of noble Lords voiced concerns about the Middle East peace process and the unending and aggravating issue of settlements. I can tell the noble Baroness, Lady Blackstone, without any equivocation that we have repeatedly condemned Israel’s announcements that it is accelerating settlement-building in the Occupied Territories, including in east Jerusalem. We have called on Israel to reverse these. As well as being illegal under international law, settlements undermine the possibility of a two-state solution to the conflict and those working for a sustainable peace. We look constantly to the Government of Israel, and are pressing them, to take all necessary steps to prevent settlement construction, and we will not cease pressing. I also have to say that we find the Levy commission conclusion, which says, in effect, “It’s all all right because these aren’t really occupied territories”, distinctly odd. Frankly, it does not fit in with the realities. That is on the negative side. I shall come to more positive aspects of the peace process question in a moment.

The noble Lord, Lord Watson, raised the issue of Bahrain, which I also touched on in my opening remarks. I assure him that we will certainly keep pressing on this matter. We regard Bahrain as friends, but friends who need to be pressed to deal more constructively and effectively with the situation that they face. No one questions or denies the difficulties and the tensions that are faced in Bahrain, and obviously there is religious or sectarian conflict between Shia and Sunni factions. Nevertheless, I leave him in no doubt that we will continue pressing on that.

My noble friend Lord Dykes had a good go at US policy. I thought that he was a shade harsh, but I would say this: here in the UK, because of our long history and experience, we can certainly assist our close American colleagues and allies in handling some of the immensely difficult situations that we all face collectively—not any particular country—in the Middle East. My noble friend was also right to praise Turkey and the Turkish role, which is something that we need to co-ordinate and work with very closely. Turkey is a major influence on the Middle East situation and is developing a new emphasis in its policies which we want to work closely with.

When the noble Lord, Lord Stone, rises, my spirits tend to rise as well on these occasions when we look around the generally extremely gloomy outlook because he always brings news of practical, sensible developments that are raising living standards, easing poverty and meeting, overcoming or bypassing the political difficulties, particularly on the Arab/Israeli front, but in other areas as well. I congratulate him on all that he is doing.

I feel somewhat the same about the experience and wisdom of my noble friend Lord Sheikh, who also brings news of the investment potential opening up in these regions that if pursued, despite all the politics and the setbacks, can bring only benefit. My noble friend also mentioned Oman. He did not reprove me, but I reprove myself for not mentioning it in my opening speech because our relations with that country are extremely good. We work very closely with it in all sorts of ways, as your Lordships know. Perhaps the lack of mention was simply because there are no problems.

Other noble Lords also emphasised what Israel and Palestine can do together: the noble Lord, Lord Haskel, at the beginning of our debate and the noble Lords, Lord Hylton, Lord Mitchell and Lord Janner. The suggestion by the noble Lord, Lord Mitchell, about universities working together excites me. I have no idea whether it is practical or to what extent Governments should be involved in what should perhaps be a non-governmental initiative, but this sort of thing must make the scene and the underlying context better so that we can get the MEPP to move again in a rather more encouraging way.

The noble Lord, Lord Hannay, contributed his wisdom and experience about the UN. We will continue to mount all kinds of robust pressures to get a Chapter 7 resolution. If it appears that some members of the P5—most obviously Russia, but perhaps China—are reluctant, we will have no hesitation about nevertheless pushing forward initiatives to bring home to them the essential need for us to work together if there is to be effective co-ordination in meeting the horrors of Syria or the dangers of Iran, which are just as much dangers to Beijing and Moscow as they are to western capitals and to the capitals of the Middle East as well.

The noble Lord, Lord Giddens, made a fascinating speech about how social media empower people and weaken Governments. I totally agree with that thesis and have long argued it myself. It is obvious that the internet and the web liberalise in that Governments no longer have a monopoly of data, but they also endanger by empowering very sinister groups. I was delighted to hear his speech. Some of us have been writing about these things for a couple of decades, and in due course all our great media commentators and so on will grasp the impact of the electronic and information revolution on the position of Governments and on the power of overcentralised Governments to retain control, which they can no longer do.

The noble Lord, Lord Wood, wound up with a very interesting survey of how he feels policy should change. He set out his three policy aims, and I have to say that they sound awfully like what we are trying to do already. I am sure he has ideas for doing them better, but they are the driving forces of our strategy in the Middle East. As to co-ordination, it is not just co-ordination with our EU allies and partners, which goes on, but, such is the global nature of our problems, it is co-ordination, if we can achieve it, with Beijing and the policy-makers in Shanghai and other places who inspire Chinese foreign policy and open up the fact that China can no longer stick to a non-interference policy because its interests are directly affected in the Middle East. There is the co-ordination with Turkey and the other rising and emerging powers of Africa. This has become a task of infinitely greater complexity than merely working with our next-door neighbours in the European Union.

The noble Lords, Lord Anderson and Lord Ahmad, made excellent speeches as well. I mention the correct analysis of the noble Lord, Lord Anderson, of the current changing emphasis in the Middle East. Out thoughts are obviously on the Syrian horror, but no doubt new and more difficult challenges lie ahead.

Developments in the Middle East and north Africa are being driven by the desire of the peoples of those countries to determine their future—to determine who governs them and by which rules—and to freely express themselves and earn a fair living, which is vital, and support their families. Perhaps we have not covered the economics of the situation as much as we should have this afternoon, but they are central.

Her Majesty’s Government’s approach will always be to support these people, their hopes and desires. We are proud of programmes we have in place, such as the Arab Partnership and many other dialogues and bilateral and multilateral links which we operate from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office with the vigorous support of my right honourable friend the Foreign Secretary—and, indeed, of my colleagues as well. If we stay true to our values, committed to change and conscientious in achieving it, Britain can play an important role in forging more open, tolerant, stable and prosperous societies in the region, from which we will all benefit. I like to think that what your Lordships have contributed this afternoon will help to clarify and unify our attempts, and reinforce what we are trying to do to achieve a better pathway forward for what has been such a troubled region.

Motion agreed.