Middle East

Lord Hannay of Chiswick Excerpts

Friday 16th March 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

My Lords, anyone who believed that the events of the Arab spring, which I would rather see described as the Arab awakening, would lead to a quick, uncomplicated and largely peaceful transformation of the Middle East, resulting in the emergence of functioning democracies and greater prosperity for the burgeoning populations, can surely not believe that now. What faces us is a period of considerable turmoil that could well last for decades, not just years, in a region that is on Europe’s doorstep and can fundamentally influence our own security and prosperity. Should we be surprised or repelled by that? Neither, I would suggest. Revolutions are always messy and, like earthquakes, are invariably followed by aftershocks. If we were unwise enough to try to distance ourselves from these developments, we would surely surrender all influence and would soon find ourselves being painfully bitten on the ankle.

I believe that we were right to intervene militarily, as we did in Libya, with a UN mandate, which I do not believe we exceeded. The responsibility to protect, to which every member of the UN signed up in 2005, was clearly engaged and the action taken conformed to just-war principles. Now that the people of Libya have been liberated, we should do everything in our power to help them to establish a working democracy, while trying not to be too prescriptive and recognising that the journey on which they have embarked is necessarily a long and difficult one, starting as they did from zero.

Should we follow the same course in Syria, even if a Security Council mandate was not being blocked by the callous and opportunistic policies of Russia and China? I rather doubt it. The situation there is much more complex and less clear-cut. Those who are rebelling against the Assad regime are divided. It is possible that external military intervention there would make things worse, not better, leading to even more carnage than we have already seen. However, we should sharply step up our humanitarian support for those who are suffering and remove the regime’s impunity for the crimes that it is evidently committing by pressing for the extension of the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court to Syria. I would be grateful if the Minister would comment on those two points. Nor do I think that we should necessarily rule out supporting external military intervention in all circumstances, particularly if the Arab League were to give a clear lead.

Elsewhere in the Middle East—in Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen, where regime change has come about, as it should, though the actions of their own people—we need to focus firmly on building up their economies and encouraging trade and investment. If ever there was a case for applying the new emphasis in DfID’s mandate on helping fragile states, it is here before our eyes. I hope that we can hear a little more about what we are doing from the Minister. I suggest that what is needed, above all, is a well co-ordinated European Union effort, not just a solo British one. It would be good to hear what is being done in that respect.

It sometimes seems that the orphan child in all this upheaval is Palestine. Israel is in a state of denial over the need for a negotiated two-state solution, hoping that the problem will somehow go away, which it will not. The US Administration are in balk during the election campaign. If this stagnation is maintained beyond the end of this year, we should have no illusions. There will be more violence in a region where the new democratic states will be subject to the promptings of popular opinion much more than in the past. Meanwhile, I hope that the Minister can confirm that if the Palestinians pursue their quest at the UN for an enhanced status, albeit one that is short of full UN membership, Britain will support that, and that if Fatah and Hamas establish a Government of technocrats, we will give that Government our full support and co-operation.

At this moment, no debate on the Middle East can afford to ignore the tensions arising as a result of Iran’s nuclear programme. The Iranians have no one to blame but themselves for the fact that the temperature is rising so sharply. Indeed, at times, they seem to be seeking to provoke such a rise. However, everyone will be the loser if a diplomatic negotiated solution cannot be found. It is surely deeply worrying that we appear to be in one of those situations where one mis-step or misjudgment could tip the balance decisively away from such a peaceful outcome.

Much will therefore be riding on the next round of negotiations between Iran and the five plus one. What are needed are both some short-term confidence-building measures and a clear route towards a long-term solution, in full conformity with Iran’s obligations under the non-proliferation treaty and its membership of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Many ideas have been canvassed for ensuring that Iran can develop as much civil nuclear energy as it wishes, while removing any conceivable threat of a weapons programme. It is time that a little more imagination and flexibility were demonstrated on all sides in discussing such possibilities. At the same time as addressing these urgent nuclear issues, it is surely vital also to address Iran’s general security concerns and to demonstrate in practical terms that we recognise the need for Iran to be an important regional player, preferably as part of some grouping of states in the Gulf region.

Finally, later this year there is to be a first-ever international conference on the creation of a weapons of mass destruction-free zone in the Middle East. That may sound a trifle optimistic—indeed aspirational— but establishing the beginnings of a continuous dialogue on that issue could mark the difference between a region moving, however slowly, in the right direction and one sliding back towards conflict. I should be most grateful if the Minister could say a few words in his summing up about the attitude that we are taking to the organisation of that conference.