Middle East: Economic Response

Lord Fuller Excerpts

Monday 1st June 2026 Lords Chamber

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I am grateful to the noble Lord for his question, but I am slightly mystified by his saying that he has raised it before and that it has not been answered. I think I have addressed it every time he has raised it in this House. He asks me the same question every time, and I think I have answered it every time.

The OBR’s forecast measures GDP per capita. We draw attention to that, and it fell under the last Parliament of the previous Government. That was a big driver of the cost of living crisis. It is currently forecast to rise by 4% in this Parliament. The Government put great score by this, as it is very important that we see GDP per capita rising. I think I have said that to the noble Lord many times, so I agree with him. It is rising in this Parliament and it fell under the previous Government. That is very important. Living standards have risen faster in the first 10 months of this Government than they did in the first 10 years of the previous Government, so it is something that we are very focused on.

[Lord Fuller (Con)]

My Lords, over three months ago, I was one of the first people to raise in this House the consequences on food security from the war in the Gulf. I declare my interest as somebody involved in the fertiliser industry, which makes me one of the better-informed commentators in this space. All around the world, nation states are taking steps to secure supplies. The EU is modifying its scheme to increase supply and mitigate costs. Other nations are implementing export bans. Ukrainian strikes on Russian production, taken together with the damage in the Gulf, are putting 50% of the world’s nitrogen fertiliser production at risk, and that has not been fully appreciated. Now, of course, sulphur shortages are creating a phosphate catastrophe. In this country, we hardly have tariffs on imported fertiliser, so announcing that as a concession is not going that far. The Government’s response, thus far, has been to propose insane fertiliser taxes that will drive food price inflation to new heights, increasing the price of beer, bread and biscuits. With the Cereals event, where British farmers congregate, next Tuesday and Wednesday—

[Lord Wilson of Sedgefield (Lab)]

Will the noble Lord get to the question, please?

[Lord Fuller (Con)]

With the Cereals event next Tuesday, what good news can the Minister give to farmers who are planning for harvest 2027? When are the Government going to take the impact of this seriously and can these extra charges, which do nothing to reduce carbon emissions globally and increase the importation of the most polluting fertilisers produced from coal fire in China?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I am very grateful to the noble Lord for the informed comments that he makes. As he said, he is a very informed commentator on these issues. I think that the last time we were discussing the same topic he asked a very similar question, and I shall give him a very similar answer. We convened the supermarkets to talk to them about the cost of food. The Chancellor also convened food producers to talk to them about security of supply and the issues that the noble Lord talks about. He mentioned fertiliser and other incredibly important inputs into the sector. The Government are, of course, in very close contact with the industry and are developing all contingency measures, depending on how the situation develops. I think none of us quite knows how the Iran war will develop and the impacts that it will have, and obviously the severity of the impact will depend on its duration. However, I can assure the noble Lord that the Government take it seriously—I think that was his core question, to make sure that we are taking it seriously—and we are obviously preparing for all eventualities.