I agree with the noble Lord. We want national insurance numbers to remain and to be the same so that when people come back and start working, as they increasingly do nowadays, we have a consistent record of what they are doing in terms of national insurance. The noble Lord is absolutely right that some people may have two numbers. Short-term migration and long-term residency are different things, and the International Passenger Survey is the best measure of long-term residency, which is what has an impact on housing and services such as the NHS.
My noble friend got through his whole Statement without telling us what the difference is between the numbers which are based on national insurance registrations, which give people entitlement to benefits and other things, and those based on the passenger survey. What has the difference been in the numbers during the past five years? Can my noble friend explain this to me, because I do not understand it? How can he argue that people working here, even if only for a short period, does not put pressure on schools, the health service, local authority services and housing? Can we take it that the Treasury will in future enable local authorities to be funded on the basis of the real, rather than the theoretical, pressures they face?
I first point out to my noble friend that it was not my Statement; it was the Answer in the other place of the Immigration Minister.
Given the Government’s warnings that leaving the European Union might result in a war in Europe, so we are told today, mortgages going through the roof and the loss of 3 million jobs, could my noble friend explain how on earth the Prime Minister decided to call a referendum on this matter in the first place? How could my right honourable friend the Prime Minister have possibly contemplated, as he told us he did, walking away from the negotiations and recommending a no vote?
Taking the last part of the question first, I do not think it is right for my noble friend to dwell on the negotiations. The point is that we are where we are. We have a choice before us, which is dramatic uncertainty if we leave and knowing what we are in now, with a reformed Europe, if we stay.
(8 years, 10 months ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, as the House knows, my right honourable friend the Chancellor is a modest man and will take credit only where it is due. The fact is that since he became Chancellor, some 70,000 jobs have been created in Wales, unemployment has fallen by 30% and we have invested £69 million in rolling out superfast broadband to 500,000 homes and businesses. But as the noble Lord has said, it is also true that since GVA statistics started in their current form in 1997, under all Governments GVA in Wales has been around 70% of that in England every year. Certainly, the Chancellor is not going to take responsibility for all those years, but the good news is that since 2010, Wales’s GVA has grown at a faster rate than England’s.
My Lords, can my noble friend confirm that the figures for Scotland would be disastrously lower had Scotland voted for independence in the referendum, given that the oil price has fallen from what the SNP said it would be, which was $110 a barrel, to $31 today?
Obviously, the premise of the independence party was based to a large extent on the oil price, but as my noble friend has said, it has fallen, from $120 per barrel in 2012, and is predicted to fall as low as perhaps $25. That is a very important factor to take into account.
My Lords, I do not think that the package is a matter for this Government. We would certainly take into account what would happen after the referendum, which of course is a Greek choice, but it is for the eurozone to decide what package is given to its members.
As for the ever closer union of peoples, the point is that when you have one currency, you need to have closer political union to make that one currency work. If you do not have that, you end up having some of the problems that we are seeing.
My Lords, given that the German Finance Minister only a month ago suggested that a referendum on the package might be appropriate, is it really acceptable that the package should be withdrawn the moment the Greek Government announce that they are going to have a referendum on whether the people should accept it? What exactly are the Greek people voting on if the package has been snatched away? When the Minister refers to the loan to the IMF being in arrears, will he explain the difference between being in arrears and being in default?
As regards the arrears, I was merely repeating the official nomenclature of the IMF. I would not comment on the precise meaning of the IMF vocabulary, but it is true that it refers to being in arrears. If that was the case, Greece would join Zimabwe, Somalia and the Sudan. On the referendum, the negotiations are coming to an end because, despite what the German Finance Minister said, if you are to have a sensible negotiation, you need to have willingness on both sides to compromise. Walking out instead of taking the decisions that are needed, and turning around without any warning and instituting a referendum, is not the way to get proper negotiations and to achieve success.