National Debt: It’s Time for Tough Decisions (Economic Affairs Committee Report)

Lord Forsyth of Drumlean Excerpts

Friday 25th April 2025 Lords Chamber

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

My Lords, it is a pleasure to take part in this debate. I add to the congratulations to my noble friend Lord Bridges, as chairman of the committee, and its members for producing this—I was going to say “timely” report, but this debate is some seven months after the report was published and quite a lot has changed in that time.

Short of national security, it addresses the biggest issue facing the country. That we have an advisory speaking time of four minutes tells you everything about the way in which Parliament is increasingly becoming the decorative part of the constitution. We now, apparently, take on huge, unlimited, unknown debt in nationalising industries over a weekend and give powers to civil servants to force people in private companies to do things on pain of being sent to prison if they do not—and Parliament has no say. It is clearly important that we address this issue not just in Parliament but in the country.

The lesson of this report is that our people—the constituents of the Members at the other end of this building, our families—have no idea of the crisis that is facing our country and the threat that it presents to our ability to deliver pensions and important public services.

Even this week we learn that borrowing has turned out to be £15 billion more than expected. In the year to March, as the noble Lord, Lord Londesborough, said, we spent £151.9 billion more than we had in income, and we are relying on growth, which we have not seen since 2008, to rescue us from that situation. As the report points out, there are fundamental strategic reasons why we need to tackle this now, and the longer we wait to bite the bullet the bigger the problem will be.

These reasons include the fact that, in the 1980s, we thought we had a peace dividend, but now we realise that we should not have spent that money, but we had committed that expenditure to welfare and other matters. The baby boomers were creating wealth and now they, like me, are a burden on the state in one form or another. The notion that we can finance the triple lock on pensions, however popular it may be, is ridiculous in these circumstances. We need to get the country to understand that and to lower its expectations for the future.

We had growth in world trade. Now we have an—I hesitate to use an adjective—Administration in the United States who are determined to destroy world trade. I assume that we should forgive them, for they know not what they do, but the impact on growth will be enormous. As my noble friend Lord Bridges pointed out, life expectancy is increasing; this and the success of the National Health Service point to further pressures that will be difficult to sustain.

Whenever there is a consensus on anything, one ought to worry. There was a consensus on quantitative easing and on lockdown, and now we are paying the price for that quantitative easing—for printing money on a vast scale. It has left the country more vulnerable to rises in interest rates and more dependent on the kindness of strangers and foreign investors, at a time when the world as a whole is under severe pressure. The latest estimate is that QE will cost us some £150 billion. The decline in the workforce to support all of this is such that, by 2070, there will be one person in work for every person in retirement. That is a huge burden to place on the next generation.

Therefore, this report should be taken seriously by the Government and by the Opposition. We need a consensus in our country, to explain to our people the crisis that we are facing, in the context of the world crisis, and to cut our cloth according to our ability to pay.

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[The Financial Secretary to the Treasury (Lord Livermore) (Lab)]

My Lords, it is a great pleasure to respond to this debate on the Economic Affairs Committee’s report on the national debt, and a privilege to do so alongside so many distinguished and genuinely expert noble Lords. It has been an incredibly impressive and well-attended debate, and I thank all noble Lords for their contributions.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

I am most grateful to the Minister. He is a former member of the Economic Affairs Committee, and he is right to pay tribute to the importance of the subject. Will he make representations to his colleagues who are responsible for the business of the House? It really is not acceptable to have a debate on a committee report such as this on a Friday when people are limited to four minutes to speak.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I absolutely hear what the noble Lord says and will of course pass those comments on.

I congratulate the Economic Affairs Committee on its report and the committee’s chair, the noble Lord, Lord Bridges of Headley, on his excellent opening speech, which achieved the extraordinary feat of summarising in just 12 minutes such a wide-ranging and in-depth report. As the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, just mentioned, I had the privilege of serving on the Economic Affairs Committee under his chairmanship, so I know the amount of time and effort that go into producing reports such as this. As the Chancellor did in her response to the committee last November, I thank all members of the committee and the committee staff for producing this thoughtful and considered report.

As the report rightly recognises, and as the noble Lords, Lord Bridges, Lord Razzall, Lord Lamont and Lord Londesborough, highlighted, the UK’s national debt has risen rapidly over recent years, from around 64% of GDP in 2010 to over 98% in August last year, the highest level since the 1960s. Latest figures to the end of March this year show public sector net debt at 95.8% of GDP, which still remains high by recent historical standards. As the noble Baroness, Lady Wolf of Dulwich, said, debt interest payments alone now stand at £105.2 billion this year—that is more than we allocate to defence, the Home Office and justice combined.

The title of the report speaks of “tough decisions” to prevent national debt from being on an unsustainable path. The Government agree. That is why in the Budget last October, we took action to fix the foundations of our economy and repair the public finances, as the noble Lord, Lord Horam, observed. That included repairing—and noble Lords would expect me to say it—the £22 billion black hole in the public finances that we inherited. That meant making difficult choices. They were not easy decisions, but they were the right decisions.

Since the committee’s report was published in September last year, and then the Budget in October, as many noble Lords have rightly said today, the world has changed further significantly. As the noble Lords, Lord Burns and Lord Forsyth, and the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, observed, new tariff barriers are now disrupting global trade. Borrowing costs have risen in all major economies; volatility in global markets has seen bond yields rise, including in the US; and growth has been downgraded across the world, with the IMF now predicting global growth to be 0.5% weaker than it was expecting as recently as January.

Of course, the UK has not been immune to these challenges. As the noble Lord, Lord Bridges, said, the OBR downgraded the UK’s growth forecast for this year at the Spring Statement, reflecting the worsening global outlook, and earlier this week the IMF did the same. In this context, maintaining sustainable public finances is a shared challenge for major economies right across the globe.

Against this backdrop, the decisions we took in the Budget to fix the foundations look ever more necessary. Imagine if we were now facing this global economic uncertainty with that black hole still in the public finances. What confidence would that have given to the Bank of England to cut interest rates? What signal would that have sent to investors about the stability and resilience of our economy?

The OBR will produce an updated forecast in the autumn, and despite the kind invitation of the noble Lord, Lord Bridges, I will not speculate now on the impacts of recent global events on the fiscal outlook ahead of that. But, as the committee’s report rightly concludes, global instability underlines the need to put debt on a sustainable trajectory and build resilience to future shocks. It also reaffirms the importance of stability as the foundation of our approach.

That is why, as the noble Lord, Lord Bridges of Headley, asked about, in the Spring Statement we again took tough decisions so that we continued to meet our non-negotiable fiscal rules, even when they were tested. That meant restoring in full the headroom against the stability rule, maintaining a surplus of £9.9 billion in 2029-30. It is why we continue to work with international partners, as the Chancellor has done at the IMF spring meetings this week, to make the case for free and open trade.

The noble Lords, Lord Bridges, Lord Burns and Lord Lamont, and the noble Baronesses, Lady Noakes and Lady Cash, all mentioned the importance of economic growth. It is why we are doubling down on our growth agenda of stability, investment and reform, including £13 billion of new capital spending in growth-generating projects announced at the Spring Statement, as well as support, for example, for a third runway at Heathrow and a new Oxford-Cambridge growth corridor, as my noble friend Lord Liddle spoke about.

As the noble Lord, Lord Griffiths, mentioned, this week’s IMF report makes it clear that the “landscape has changed” and has downgraded the growth prospects of all G7 nations. However, the UK remains the fastest-growing European G7 country, and the IMF has recognised that this Government are delivering reforms which will drive up long-term growth in the UK. Our upcoming modern industrial strategy, mentioned by the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, and spending review will say more about how we intend to drive long-term sustainable investment and boost productivity.

The committee’s report includes a number of key recommendations, central to which is the committee’s call for an “overhaul” of the UK’s fiscal framework. The Government’s thinking was clearly along very similar lines, and in the Budget in October, we implemented the most significant change to the fiscal framework since 2010—as my noble friend Lord Wood said. I congratulate him on becoming the new chair of the Economic Affairs Committee, and I look forward to working with him.

The new framework we have put in place is designed to support long-term growth, by ensuring the UK’s debt is put on a sustainable path and by prioritising sustainable public investment. First among these reforms are the Government’s non-negotiable fiscal rules, the embodiment of our unwavering commitment to economic stability. The first rule, the stability rule, moves the current Budget into balance, so day-to-day spending is met by revenues, and ensures that the Government will borrow only for investment, which the noble Lord, Lord King of Lothbury, questioned. This rule differs from the previous Government’s borrowing rule, which targeted the overall deficit rather than the current deficit and created a clear incentive to cut investment that is detrimental to growth, as the IMF has made clear.

The noble Lord, Lord Lamont, asked about the primary surplus, which the OBR forecast to move from a deficit of 1.9% of GDP in 2024-25 to a surplus of 1% by 2029-30. The Government understand and respect the argument made by the committee in respect of the fifth year. However, the Government’s position is that targeting the third year of the forecast provides a strong anchor for fiscal sustainability, while providing the necessary flexibility to respond to macroeconomic shocks in the short term.

Our approach is supported by the OECD, which recommended that the UK should

“shorten the time horizon of fiscal rules”.

Similarly, the Institute for Fiscal Studies has made it clear that a fiscal rule targeting debt falling in the fifth year of the forecast is

“more arbitrary and gameable than most”.

The second rule—the investment rule—ensures net financial debt falls as a proportion of GDP. This keeps debt on a sustainable path, while allowing the step change in investment our economy needs.

The noble Baronesses, Lady Wolf of Dulwich and Lady Noakes, and the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, raised the issue of definitions. Net financial debt is an accredited official statistic that has been measured by the Office for National Statistics since 2016 and forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility since that date. It recognises that government investment delivers returns for taxpayers by counting not just the costs of investment but the benefits.

The noble Lords, Lord Burns and Lord Howell of Guildford, spoke about the importance of investment to economic growth, as did my noble friends Lord Wood, Lord Liddle and Lord Davies of Brixton. As a result of this second fiscal rule, we were able to increase capital investment by over £100 billion in the Budget in October, boosted by an additional £13 billion announced at the Spring Statement. The OBR has confirmed that we are meeting both fiscal rules, and borrowing is forecast to fall in every year of the forecast—from the 5.3% of GDP that we inherited to 2.1% in 2029-30.

In addition to our fiscal rules, the Government’s Charter for Budget Responsibility contains a further serious of measures to improve certainty, transparency and accountability in our fiscal framework.