European Union Referendum Bill

Lord Forsyth of Drumlean Excerpts

Wednesday 4th November 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Wigley (PC)]

My Lords, in the unavoidable absence of the noble Lord, Lord Liddle, it falls on me to move Amendment 61, which, fortuitously, has my name attached to it. The amendment does what it says: it provides for the result of the referendum to be declared for each of the four constituent nations of these islands. It may well be that this amendment is not necessary to ensure that the people of each of the four nations know the referendum vote in each of their respective territories, but it puts the matter beyond doubt. It recognises the right of each nation to know how it has voted, and for the world to know that as well.

That brings me to the linked amendment in this group, as we come to the end of our Committee Stage debate. Amendment 61C, standing in my name, relates to one aspect on which we have only just touched, and perhaps have deliberately skirted around because of its far-reaching implications. That is the consequence if there were a split vote across the countries of Britain, with one or more of the constituent nations of the UK voting in a different direction from the UK as a whole.

The main focus of attention in this context has been Scotland voting to stay in the EU and the UK voting to leave. However, the arithmetic could equally apply to Wales or—perhaps in a different way—to Northern Ireland. I accept, for better or worse, the constitutional reality that the context of this referendum is the United Kingdom as a whole, for the simple reason that the UK is the member state of the EU which is contemplating leaving the Union. Therefore, it is a decision that has in the first place to be taken by the UK as a whole. If the UK as a whole votes to stay in the EU, even if one constituent nation voted to pull out, it would be extremely difficult for that nation to do so without erecting border controls between itself and the rest of the UK, and between itself and the rest of the European Union. I have not heard that option being seriously argued. If noble Lords feel to the contrary, they are clearly at liberty to put forward their own amendments to deal with that somewhat remote possibility.

However, we are all aware of the very real prospect that Scotland could vote to stay in the European Union and the UK could vote to leave, and that that could reopen the debate about rerunning the independence referendum in Scotland, with the real possibility that this time—for a variety of reasons, of which the EU dimension is just one—Scotland could vote for independence. If it did so, the Scottish Government might well aim, over the same period of time it might take for the UK to negotiate our departure from the EU—heaven forbid—to negotiate their own continuing membership. That road would clearly have its challenges. I do not intend to go down the highways and byways of that possibility at this late stage of the evening.

Incidentally, this is not a question that immediately arises in Wales because at present there is nothing like the same level of support for independence in Wales as there is in Scotland. At present in Wales, there is a widespread desire to secure greater autonomy, some of which is being addressed by the draft Wales Bill, which was recently published. There is certainly a feeling in Wales, and further afield, that the countries of the UK need a new relationship—a balanced partnership, if I can call it that, between the nations of these islands—but that does not manifest itself in the type of momentum towards independence we have seen in Scotland. However, the principle is equally valid in Wales, as it would be in Northern Ireland—or, indeed, in England. If England voted by a very small margin to stay in the EU, and the overall UK result was in favour of pulling out because of the votes of Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland, I believe that the same question would and should arise in an English context.

That brings us to the heart of the issue: what is to be the future relationship of the four nations of these islands? On 8 September, former Prime Minister Gordon Brown gave evidence to the panel chaired by the noble Lord, Lord Kerslake, inquiring into better devolution for the whole of the UK. It was set up by the All-Party Group on Reform, Decentralisation and Devolution, co-chaired by the noble Lords, Lord Foulkes of Cumnock and Lord Purvis of Tweed. Gordon Brown and I have not often seen eye to eye. I would never imagine myself turning to him for words relevant to my argument in the context that we are debating tonight. However, in his opening remarks before answering questions, he made a statement of immense significance. I quote directly from a transcript that has been cleared by his office:

“The UK is a voluntary association of nations and I would stress that if the UK is to exist in the future, then it has to do so for a clear and stated purpose”.

Those were his words in a Committee Room upstairs here.

I add that one such valid purpose is to work together within the EU. It is an immensely important vision and one on which the future relationships of our four nations should be built, for I believe that there is not a person in this House who does not realise that there must be an evolving relationship if the United Kingdom is to survive as a meaningful constitutional unit. If we are to consider ourselves a family of nations, that has implications for the responsibilities we have, one towards another. All happy, functional families intuitively realise that this is the case. There is give and take. It is not a matter of father laying down the law and everyone else doing what they are told.

There was a good example in our extended family a short while ago. The father wanted to move house. He had seen a property that appealed considerably to him some 15 miles away. His wife was willing to go along with the move, although undoubtedly it would cause her much additional work. However, the two children, who attended primary school in their home village, were horrified. They would have to move school, leave their friends and lose the out-of-school activities that were a key part of their lives. They were beside themselves with grief. The father realised the pain he would be inflicting on them if he imposed his will, as he had the authority to do. He wisely decided to forget his plans, in the interests of the happiness and cohesion of the family as a whole. That is the situation we potentially face in this referendum. If we are indeed a family of nations, we should behave as a family. This is the time to face such questions, not in the acrimonious aftermath of a knife-edge referendum result.

Amendment 61C provides for a quadruple lock that defines the basis on which the outcome of the referendum can be perceived as a vote to quit the EU. It would require a vote to do so not only by way of the aggregate outcome of all the votes cast in the United Kingdom, but also within each of the four nations which make up the United Kingdom. It provides that all four members of this family of nations should concur on such a far-reaching move. I am putting this forward to give the Government an opportunity to tell the House how they would handle the situation in which, for argument’s sake, Scotland had voted to stay within the EU while the total aggregate vote in the UK was in favour of leaving. With respect, it would not be good enough to say, “Well, we will cross that bridge when we come to it”, because by then it may be too late. Events will have gathered their own momentum. We would inevitably be facing another Scottish independence referendum. Is that what the Government, and this Chamber, really want?

There may be other formulations of words that would better achieve my objective in proposing this amendment. If so, let us have an improved wording from the Government at Report. All I say, in conclusion, is that if we are indeed living in a family of nations which is a voluntary association, this issue has to be addressed, and I hope the House can agree with that sentiment. I beg to move.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

My Lords, as the noble Lord is perfectly entitled to move his amendment, and although this late hour is probably not the moment to discuss some of these matters, I am just amazed that the noble Lord, Lord Liddle—I apologise as I am criticising him while he is not in his place—has put his name to at least part of this debate in support of having separate results announced in separate parts of the United Kingdom. We had a referendum in Scotland which we were assured by the nationalists would decide the matter for a generation. The Scottish people decided to remain part of the United Kingdom and within days the nationalists broke their word. Now we have the leader of the nationalists in Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, talking about another referendum being inevitable.

The polls still show that a majority of people in Scotland wish to remain part of the United Kingdom. The issue is for the United Kingdom to decide. It is the United Kingdom that is a member of the European Union. I am appalled at the noble Lord, Lord Liddle, and at the Opposition—I hope that the opposition Front Bench will distance themselves from this argument—for embarking on this nationalist language. It is what has destroyed the Labour Party in Scotland. They have talked about the Tories throughout the 1980s as not having a mandate in Scotland. They used the rhetoric of nationalism and they have been surprised to find that they themselves, as unionists, have been destroyed by it. Here we go again, arguing that this is somehow a decision that Scotland, Ireland, Wales and England should have representations on and that there should—as this amendment suggests—have to be a consensus between the four parts of the United Kingdom. It is a nationalist, or regionalist, argument, and should be no part of the consideration of these matters.

I understand why the nationalists in Scotland—and in Wales, it would seem—are scratching around for a reason to justify breaking their word. The Labour Party’s argument has been that we need to have a referendum quickly because of the uncertainty. The damage that is being done to jobs and investment in Scotland because of the uncertainty about the future of Scotland created by this irresponsible nationalist rhetoric, is immense. We took a decision in the referendum and I very much hope that when we have this referendum, whichever way it goes, that is the end of the matter and it is decided and we can get on with the business of creating wealth and jobs in our country. The exploitation of this referendum by the nationalists as a way of trying to create division and dissent in our country is reprehensible.

I know that the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, is a decent and honourable man but he should go to Scotland and look at the division that has been created there by the intimidation that the nationalists were responsible for in the campaign, and the need for healing. The very last thing we need is a further attempt to create divisions between the peoples of this United Kingdom.

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[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

As so often, I wish that we had a Scottish nationalist in this Chamber to respond to the noble Lord’s points, with most of which I agree. I bow to no one in my respect for the noble Lord, Lord Wigley. His was a very moving speech and I agree with his description of the difficulties that could arise were different results to occur in the different parts of the kingdom. I think he is correct about that. I think his solution is absolutely wrong. I cannot support his amendment.

The amendment in the names of the noble Lords, Lord Wigley and Lord Liddle, is probably unnecessary because I suspect that the votes will be counted separately in any case; I would hope so because there will certainly be rumours about what the result has been if it is close and it would be far better that there should be something on the record. With respect to the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, it is a little harsh to accuse the noble Lord, Lord Liddle, of being a violent Scottish nationalist because he has put his name to that amendment.

There is a fundamental issue with Amendment 61C. The noble Lord, Lord Wigley, proposes a quadruple lock in the situation in which, say, England has voted to leave the European Union and Northern Ireland has, by a very narrow majority, voted to stay in. If the noble Lord’s amendment was carried and became the law, we would stay in. That seems an unacceptable situation. I agree with the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth: it is a United Kingdom decision.

It is important to note that we have no threshold requirements in this referendum and we have had no amendment in Committee proposing that there should be a threshold. That is constitutionally quite surprising for a decision as big as this. The precedent would lead one to think about a threshold. I would not have wanted a threshold. I would not have wanted a supermajority, as in the precedent in Scotland in the 1970s. I do not like referenda but the essence of a referendum is that you win or lose. It is clean; it is 51% to 49%, for example. If 51% are in favour of our leaving the European Union, we will leave, and we should not create any fudge round that. This is a yes/no decision, and if you decide to go, you go. The double referenda theory attributed to Boris Johnson, which he appears to have come off—that if the decision was to go, there would be another negotiation in which the foreigners, astonished and timorous, would come creeping, offering us far better terms to stay in—is nonsense. If the country votes to leave the Government will be required to invoke Article 50 and start the process of coming out. It has to be clean. I say to the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, that I think he is correct in his description of the difficulties that would arise, but the difficulties which would arise if his amendment were the law of the land would be much greater.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

The noble Lord said that if the country voted to leave the Government would invoke Article 50, but surely that does not follow. It would be possible for us to remain in negotiations having voted to leave and then subsequently invoke Article 50, would it not? He is the expert.

[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

I do not know what form these negotiations would take. I think that the position of a Government who said, “Okay, we have heard the nation speak, but now we are going to go and negotiate something else with Brussels. We are not acting on the decision the country has taken”—

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

My point is that if you invoke Article 50 you are then no longer a member and it does not necessarily follow that that would be the most appropriate way of dealing with it. You could remain as a member and negotiate our withdrawal and then use Article 50.

[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

Actually, you are a member while the Article 50 negotiations are proceeding. You are a member of every council. Your MEPs do not leave the European Parliament, your judges do not leave the court and your Commissioners do not go home. The only difference is that in the Article 50 negotiations you do not have a vote on the position of the EU—the position that it has in its negotiation with you. That is all. You remain a member throughout the period of the Article 50 negotiations unless you decide unilaterally to go home. You do not have to do Article 50 at all. If you want you can just stop paying the bills, stop turning up at meeting and in due course it will be recognised that you have gone. It is not the case that once you invoke Article 50 you are no longer a member of the European Union.

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[Lord Wigley]

My Lords, I am very grateful for the response and for the interest that this debate has generated among a number of noble Lords. I cannot say that I am entirely surprised at the tenor of the debate or the comments that have been made, but before withdrawing the amendment, I will say just two things. First, I passionately want all four nations of the United Kingdom to stay part of the European Union because I believe that both our local family of nations and the greater family of nations are apposite for such a relationship.

I also ask noble Lords to think, between now and Report and as this campaign goes on, what will be the consequences were that to happen. The noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, said that he very much wanted to see the end of debating an independence referendum again. I am sure that he would accept that there is a greater danger of that referendum coming closer if those two results are different and the consequences of the referendum are taken for the UK as a whole.

If that is not the case, it flies in the face of what has been happening in Scottish politics—the fact that 56 out of 59 Members of Parliament are SNP. That surely has a message, and we should be thinking about how we respond to it. I am trying to put forward ideas and grasping at some ideas that Gordon Brown is putting forward about a new association of family members within these islands. We have a commonality of interests in many ways, and we have our distinctive differences as well. There is a need to build on that basis for the future, and the European referendum is one of those contexts.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

The noble Lord is right: 56 out of 59 of the MPs were elected as Scottish nationalists. They stood in the general election on a platform that the referendum had decided the matter and that the election was not about the issue of independence. During the referendum campaign, their party gave an assurance that this was a once-in-a-generation decision. So it is quite wrong to suggest that that result in any way vindicates the idea that you can rerun the referendum if something else happens which you may or may not agree with.

[Lord Wigley]

I understand entirely what the noble Lord is saying; all I am saying is that if the outcome was as I postulated, and as he accepts is a possibility—not a probability, but a possibility—there are consequences which, unless we think our way through them ahead of the referendum, will come back to haunt us. I put the amendment forward in a constructive spirit, not to try to pull things to bits. I am sure that the words of the noble Lord, Lord Tebbit, will be heard loud and clear in Scotland. I am not trying to pull things to bits; I am trying to feel a way forward so that we can work together. Even if this is not the formula, there needs to be some formula.

On that basis, I beg leave to withdraw the amendment.