Budget Statement

Lord Forsyth of Drumlean Excerpts

Thursday 27th March 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Hollick (Lab)]

My Lords, I want to start with Tommy Cooper. When he was asked to explain how he did his sleight of hand magic, he said, “Watch my hands and ignore what I say”. Of course, that was easier said than done, because Cooper’s patter was utterly hilarious and compelling. Our Chancellor has a well practised line in patter, but if you watch his hands—in other words, what he actually does—you quickly detect the difference between what he says and what he does. He is adept at saying one thing while doing another.

Over the past few years, the Chancellor’s constant refrain in response to those calling for a Keynesian boost to get the economy moving has been, “You can’t cure debt with more debt”, but this is precisely what he has done—though not directly of course, although public debt has in fact significantly gone over his forecast. He has not overtly adopted a plan B; rather, he has resorted to off-balance-sheet measures to boost the economy. By making £120 billion in government guarantees available for additional mortgage borrowing, he has provided the private sector with a massive incentive to ignite the housing market and with it the feel-good factor.

That was last year. In this year’s Budget, the Chancellor tells us we are not saving enough, but in the next breath he announces that pensioners can now access their pension pots to finance consumption. The OBR forecasts that the savings ratio will fall from 7.2% in 2012 to 3.2% by 2018. That is before taking into account early pension fund withdrawals.

Anatole Kaletsky has rather colourfully dubbed the Chancellor a stealth convert to Keynesian Thatcherism. The Chancellor has arranged for the private sector to take the strain and privatise the borrowing that the economy needs to get us out of recession—all helped along, of course, by quantitative easing and ultra-low interest rates. This treatment has worked. As the Minister said, the UK’s growth rates have exceeded expectation and are ahead of all other major advanced economies. However, it could have worked earlier and the UK could have avoided three years of damaging economic underperformance if the Chancellor had adopted policies to boost borrowing earlier in the Parliament.

The IFS has spotted another important gap between words and actions. Despite the Chancellor’s protestations that he is ruthlessly holding the line on fiscal discipline, he has introduced permanent tax giveaways paid for by unspecified spending cuts and temporary tax increases, thus weakening long-term public finances. He has yet to spell out how he will achieve his target of cutting public expenditure by 2018 to the lowest share of national income since 1948.

GDP growth is being fuelled by a borrowing binge and house price inflation. We all know how that story ends. Will the Minister please explain why the Government expect the outturn will be different this time round? The long delayed recovery we are seeing is welcome but it is the worst—that is to say, taking the longest to get back to the previous peak in output—in our history. Output remains 15% below what might have been expected absent the financial crisis. The OBR forecasts that the output gap will close by 2018, with the prospect that there will be a permanent hole in UK output. If this forecast is correct, improved productivity is the only way to achieve above-trend growth and recover the lost ground, as the Minister said. The OBR notes that our productivity is exceptionally weak.

The substantial increase in employment is welcome, but it has led to a reduction in real wages and, therefore I presume, productivity. This may be explained by the move from good full-time jobs to a mix of part-time, sole trading, temporary contract and zero-hours contracts, and with many graduates and professionals now working in jobs for which they are well overqualified. The data on pay tell a grim story. Real average earnings have fallen by nearly 10% since 2008 and, measured by RPI, will show no recovery by 2018. Low pay and low productivity are no recipe for sustained growth or, indeed, for fairness.

The Chancellor flirted last autumn with the idea of a large increase in the minimum wage, but that came to nought. He could have been bolder and adopted a policy of requiring the public sector and those companies that hold government outsourcing contracts to pay the living wage. This would lift many working families off benefits and out of the clutches of payday lenders. Economic growth built on decent pay is more sustainable, let alone fairer, than growth based on excessive personal credit.

As the Minister said, increasing capital investment is essential to improving productivity. After four years of declining capital investment by both government and the private sector, there are welcome signs of a pick-up, with the OBR now forecasting 8% growth in business investment and 4.5% growth in government investment. The changes in the Budget to encourage business investment are also welcome. Now that increased funding is being promised, will the Minister tell the House what other barriers need to be removed if he is to achieve his ambitious infrastructure plan?

Investment in the energy sector is essential to getting prices down and to keeping the lights on, as the margin of electricity generating capacity over peak demand shrinks over the next few years. The shortcomings of energy policy have been laid bare by the Government’s dramatic intervention to introduce a £7 billion package to cut energy bills, secure investment in nuclear power and bring mothballed gas generating plants back into service as standby capacity.

But all that comes at a very high cost. The nuclear investment is predicated upon a gas price set at twice the current level and inflation linked for 35 years, all of which will give the investors—EDF—a very handsome 30%-plus return. The standby gas generation arrangements that the Government put in place will have to be underpinned by very expensive back-up contracts to provide gas. New offshore wind will, DECC calculates, be some 30% more expensive than the cost of new nuclear power—all this in a world in which energy prices are falling. The Chancellor promises a shale gas revolution but, to date, only one shale gas well has been fracked in the UK and, assuming that further drilling proves the reserves to be commercially viable, production will come on stream in volume only in the next decade.

The failure of energy policy to create a competitive, functioning energy market that is attractive to investors has forced the Government, in effect, to renationalise the energy sector by taking direct control of pricing and investment. This policy of intervention is not working on any level. Emissions are up because of the increased coal use, supply is less secure because of inadequate investment, and costs are up because of the high cost of new low-carbon supplies and the intermittent nature of the source of energy.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

I find myself agreeing with much of what the noble Lord is saying on energy policy, but how does he reconcile what he is saying with the Official Opposition’s policy to introduce price controls on the energy companies?

[Lord Hollick]

As the noble Lord can see, I am speaking from the Back Benches. The wide-ranging competition policy announced today is welcome, but there is a need for a root-and-branch review of our energy policy.

The Chancellor’s measures to boost saving and to stop pensioners being forced to buy annuities from a cartel that gives poor value for money are bold and welcome. When he announced the decision to allow pensioners to access their pension savings, the Chancellor acknowledged that pensioners would need free, impartial advice if they are to get the best out of the choices they now have. The promise to provide that advice must be met in full if pensioners’ interests are to be protected in what is a fiendishly complex and, frankly, rather rapacious industry.

I end on a note of caution. I was a director of the National Bus Company when it was privatised by the then Conservative Government in 1987 into more than 80 separate companies. By the way, it was not my policy but that of Nicholas Ridley. Employees were given the option of staying in the indexed final salary scheme, which had government backing, or taking their chances in a deferred contribution scheme. The pension salesmen’s seductive patter and the promise of a share of the commission generated by the transfer to a defined contribution scheme proved irresistible to many, who then saw their pensions fall short of their expectations, let alone the guaranteed level of the NBC scheme that they had left. This House has an opportunity to make sure that that sort of thing does not happen again by providing proper information and making truly independent advice available to people who are making a decision that is irreversible at an important time in their lives.