(6 years, 4 months ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, it is a great honour to follow the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Craig. I shall not speak on what he spoke about, because I have no expertise there.
I will speak about what is likely to happen in the next three or four days with Brexit. I have said before that, while I voted remain in the referendum, I believe that, if there was a majority vote for leaving, we should leave. The first time I spoke on this issue, on the Monday after the referendum, I gave the example of the feminist movement, which has said, “No means no. What part of the word ‘no’ do you not understand?” Well, what part of the word “leave” do people not understand? Leave means leave.
It is up to Parliament to have worked out the precise legislative details and negotiations of that task. As I have also said before in your Lordships’ House, the deal that Theresa May negotiated was a very good deal—or at least there was no better deal available in town. Parliament should have approved it, rather than rejecting it somewhat perversely several times. However, we are where we are.
I might be completely wrong—and I see that the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, is in his place, so I speak with some trepidation—but I believe that Boris Johnson has introduced a certain logical distinction to the Northern Ireland problem, and it is worth thinking about. That logical distinction is between the common market and the customs union. It is an attempt to say that Northern Ireland will follow common market rules, but the problem is about the customs union and maintaining the free border. Obviously, we do not know precisely what deal is being negotiated right now, but I guess that what is being said now is that, so far as the customs union problem is concerned, legally and formally Northern Ireland would remain part of the UK customs union and therefore would leave the EU customs union. Be that as it may, however, Northern Ireland could be made a free economic zone and, with mutual agreement, could be allowed to deviate from the written rules.
This is where the problem is: it is difficult to legally nail down all the details of what is and what is not allowed. In this, I follow what the noble and learned Lord, Lord Mackay of Clashfern, said: if there were an agreement in principle before 31 October that some sort of free economic zone would be admitted by both sides, the details could be worked out during the transition period. I am not a lawyer and I have not negotiated, but, if there is trust and good will on both sides, we have 18 or 21 months to work out the legal details of what rules will and will not apply and whether inspection will be necessary. If there is trust, one could say that there could be minimal inspection on this matter and so we can press on.
The second problem relates to consent—a more difficult problem than the customs union. The problem of consent has been deeply embedded in the politics of Northern Ireland for the last 100 years, through mutual mistrust on the two sides as to which side will vote. There, I believe that the proposal for a decision every four years—although I do not know whether that is still being proposed—is too fragile. If I had the choice, I would say that at the end of the transition period—something like December 2021—there should be a referendum in Northern Ireland on whether Northern Ireland should stay in the free economic zone or whatever the arrangement is. Each of the two sides—Protestants and Catholics—should have a separate majority for approval, so neither side would have a lock on the decision, which would stand only if there were a majority in both communities. If that form of consent were adopted, it would be a good arrangement that would be likely to endure.
These are all speculations and we do not know what will happen, but if the Government were to bring such a proposal by 19 October, I dare say that I would rather have it adopted by Parliament than kicked into the long grass. The difficulty with kicking something into the long grass, according to the Benn Act, would be that it would not be the last time that it was kicked into the long grass.
Some while back, the noble Lord made a very fine speech about trade and setting up new trade arrangements. As a complete innocent in all this, I was very interested. Does he still have the concerns that he expressed about the amount of time it takes to set up new trade deals?
Yes. I believe that people are mistaken if they promise or think that setting up a free trade agreement is an absolutely simple act: you pick up the phone and call somebody and say, “Hey, let’s have a free trade agreement”. Free trade treaties actually take five years to negotiate—and they should take that long because there are very serious issues at stake. Our negotiations with the European Union might take slightly less time than that, but with America, or even with the Commonwealth, it will take a long time. Nobody should assume that the Commonwealth is panting at the other end for our attention. I have good reason to believe, having talked to people in India, that they are more interested in the EU than they are in the UK, because they know which market is bigger. They are not stupid. As someone said, they do not really have as benign an opinion of the Empire as we have—cricket or no cricket. We should not believe our own fake news.
I am sorry that that was such a long answer. But, as the noble Viscount, Lord Ridley, said—and I said before him—once the uncertainty of Brexit is over and people know the nature of the beast, the British economy is so resilient and innovative that it will recover, perhaps within six or eight quarters, and resume its prosperous path.
(7 years, 11 months ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, I too thank the noble Lords, Lord Ahmad and Lord Howell, for securing this debate. The last words of the noble Lord, Lord Popat, are a good cue for me to say what I wanted to say, which is that the past is a guide to the future. The noble Baroness, Lady Anelay, said in her brilliant speech how the Commonwealth had enjoyed the leadership of Her Majesty the Queen for 66 years. Indeed, the change from the British Commonwealth to the Commonwealth very much coincided with her coronation.
In contemplating the future of the Commonwealth, there is an 80-tonne elephant sitting in the room that nobody has so far mentioned: can we always presume that Britain will be at the head of the Commonwealth, especially that the monarch will be at the head of the Commonwealth? That question must be discussed, because the Commonwealth is not the Commonwealth of 1952; it is different now. We cannot just turn the Commonwealth tap on and off as and when we please. We have to understand the past and, if we are to be committed to the future, the present leadership structure of the Commonwealth will not serve the purpose. The noble Lord, Lord Geidt, in his brilliant maiden speech mentioned the contribution that His Royal Highness Prince Charles is making to the Commonwealth, which is of course very welcome. But I do not think that one can presume—I am sorry to say uncomfortable things—that the leadership of the Commonwealth will be in London. There are many countries that would gladly share the leadership. Perhaps we should have a constitutional structure whereby the leadership rotates around the countries of the Commonwealth; we cannot always presume that it is our possession.
To say something about the past, there is a tendency, especially in films about the Second World War, to talk about Britain standing alone during that war. The Commonwealth is not mentioned at all, nor the fact that millions of soldiers came and fought—and died. Britain was not alone; Britain had the Empire at its disposal and the Empire pulled out all the stops to help the mother country. Now, we have to rewrite our past. We really cannot go on having that kind of narrative of the past that excludes everybody who helped us and where we are the hero. Now that we are about to go out of Europe and need friends, we suddenly remember, “Oh yes, there is this thing called the Commonwealth”. They have not just been waiting all these years to be loved by us. They really have not. I have talked to some Indian leaders and they are not waiting with open arms and eager hearts to help us.
We have to fight. As the noble Lord, Lord Bruce, said, Germany does much more business with India because, when German businessmen go to India, they go prepared. They go with a lot of knowledge, unlike British businessmen who presume that, because they speak English and play cricket, Indians will know what we need and how we need it. I have seen in action how far short British businessmen fall compared to continental businessmen. We need to get our act together, pull up our socks and take the Commonwealth seriously, not just occasionally, but so as to create a constant and fruitful engagement which will be as much to our benefit as theirs. We have to recognise that, during the 66 years of Her Majesty’s reign, while we have prospered, relatively they have prospered more. They are catching up. Economies such as India, Nigeria and Malaysia are going to be very important to our future, not just as former poor countries but as seriously thriving centres of business.
To secure the future of the Commonwealth, we need to think of a better governance structure. There is no reason why the Commonwealth Secretariat should be in London but, be that as it may. We have to think about the leadership and some sort of constitution for the Commonwealth. It cannot just be an informal gathering. Secondly, we have to develop in our own domestic politics a much more serious concern with the Commonwealth and our relationship with it. With that rather contrarian message, I had better stop.
(8 years, 4 months ago)
Lords Chamber
Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon
My Lords, that is very much a question for the US Administration.
My Lords, now that the President has given Congress responsibility for renewing the sanctions, what efforts are Her Majesty’s Government making to influence opinion in Congress—to the extent that we can—so that it comes forward with a good set of sanctions?
Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon
As I said, we will continue to work with all partners, including the US, to ensure the continuation of the deal. We will work to ensure that all parties continue to implement it in full, and that its basic facts and fundamentals are upheld.