Statistics: Accuracy

Lord Cormack Excerpts

Monday 1st July 2019 Lords Chamber

[Lord Young of Cookham]

As a former Treasury Minister, I view with alarm the weeks that are passing during the contest which is under way, where increasingly generous commitments are being made from the headroom which lasts, I think, for only one year. I hope that, in due course, there will be costings for all these commitments so that the members of my party who are choosing which is the most responsible leader can see which one has the most credible economic policy.

[Lord Cormack (Con)]

My Lords, are statistics written on the side of a bus subject to these strictures?

[Lord Young of Cookham]

I believe my noble friend is referring to the £350 million figure produced during the referendum. That was not a government statistic or a Conservative Party statistic. It was a Vote Leave statistic, which was criticised at the time by Sir Andrew Dilnot, who made it clear that the £350 million was a gross figure that did not take into account the rebate or other flows from the EU to the UK. The gross annual figure of £19.1 billion—the basis of the Vote Leave claim—reduced to £7.1 billion after these factors were taken into account. Sir Andrew concluded, in what might be considered an understatement, that the £350 million figure was “potentially misleading”.