Strategic Defence Review

Lord Coaker Excerpts

Wednesday 9th October 2024 Grand Committee

[The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Lord Coaker) (Lab)]

My Lords, it is a great pleasure for me to try to sum up all the incredible contributions that have been made. I am sure my noble friend Lord Robertson will have found the debate and discussion today helpful to his review. I will do my best to respond to the comments—and many of them were comments as much as questions. Obviously, I will review what was said and if there is a particular question or point that somebody has made that I have not answered, of course I will respond to that by letter and put a copy of that into the Library.

I start by saying to my noble friend, good luck. I speak now as an independent contributor to the review that he is undertaking, and it is important to note that it is an independent review. It is something that is particularly important to him and his fellow reviewers. I emphasise the point made by my noble friend, and indeed by the noble Baronesses, Lady Goldie and Lady Smith, and others, that it is an all-party review. It is a UK review, and that is why we have been especially keen to ensure that the support that my noble friend has had, and the different people who are advising him, represent a wide range of political opinion. It is in all our interests that this review is done correctly and comes to the right conclusions, for the benefit of our country and the benefit of the wider alliances that we support.

I also need to address the point made by the noble Baroness, Lady Smith. This is slightly out of context, but it is really important for the people who read these deliberations. His Majesty’s Government have no intention whatever of relinquishing the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands, Gibraltar or the other overseas bases to which she referred. I put that firmly on the record, so there is no confusion about the position or policy of His Majesty’s Government. I want to emphasise it, because it is extremely important to have it on the record.

Let us address the issue of money. Numerous noble Lords have, quite rightly, made contributions about money, including the noble and gallant Lords, Lord Stirrup and Lord Houghton, the noble Lords, Lord Bilimoria and Lord Alderdice, my noble friend Lord West, the noble Viscount, Lord Trenchard, and the noble Baronesses, Lady Stuart, Lady Goldie and Lady Smith. The Government have an absolute commitment to 2.5%. I know that that is not what some people want to hear and that there is no timeline given to it, but there is an absolute commitment to 2.5%. It is not an aspiration. I know that the noble Baroness cited that and she will know that, at the recent NATO summit in Washington, the Prime Minister reiterated that commitment to 2.5%.

I know that, in the end, my noble friend Lord Robertson will wrestle with how to spend that, what the threats are and what capabilities are needed to address it. That is something that his review will have to address. That is the absolute commitment that the Government have made. People have made their views known on that and they will no doubt be considered.

I turn to some of the points on context, which was mentioned by a number of noble Lords, starting with the noble Lord, Lord Howell. In his introductory remarks, he talked about the increasing threats from Russia and China—as did other noble Lords, including the noble Lord, Lord Walney, and the noble Viscount, Lord Trenchard. Let us be absolutely clear about this. The NATO-first policy of the Government does not mean a retrenchment from the Indo-Pacific. Why would you sign up to AUKUS? Why would you see AUKUS as a completely important strategic part of what the UK is about if you are to retrench from the Indo-Pacific? Again, that will be in the context of an overall budget and the conclusions that the review comes to, but AUKUS is really important. Other noble Lords made the point—including the noble Lord, Lord Walney, very effectively—that not only pillar 1 but pillar 2 are important, as well as all the other things that the noble Lord mentioned. My noble friend Lord West knows this: why would we send a carrier strike group to the Indo-Pacific next year—2025—if we are going to withdraw from the Indo-Pacific and if it was not still important to us?

The noble Viscount, Lord Trenchard, made a very powerful comment about the Indo-Pacific and that context. I say to him: all our allies and friends in that region, having been consulted and discussed this, know what that carrier strike group should do and where it should go. We will do that with our allies. That is a really important statement about where we are. Of course Ukraine and NATO are a priority for us, but the Indo-Pacific and other areas of the world remain important.

I say to the noble Baroness, Lady Stuart, we had a meeting and conference with Norway at RUSI, where I spoke, about the very issues that she quite rightly referred to on the High North—although not the Antarctic—and the way in which climate change is opening it up and increasing the threats from Russia and China. I say to the noble Baroness, Lady Bennett, that if she reads the terms of reference for the strategic defence review, it has climate change in paragraph 1, so give credit where credit is due. It may not give the answers that the noble Baroness wants, but in the first paragraph it recognises that climate change may impact on security.

Again, as the noble Baroness, Lady Stuart, said, climate change opens up the world. As I was reminded when I looked at a map, the reason it opens up the world—not only to Russia but to China—is because you have to think of the world as round. So that means that they can come over the top. I know it sounds ridiculous, but I thought that China was 7,000 or 8,000 miles away, because I was thinking of the world as flat. We have to think of the earth as round. The serious point is that climate change makes China thousands of miles nearer to the Arctic in a way that it was not before. That is a really important consideration. The strategic interests that my noble friend Lord Robertson’s review will have to reflect on are not only in the Indo- Pacific but in the High North.

The noble Lord, Lord Howell, and others were right to point out that, of course, this means: what do we do about the global South? What do we do about the issues with respect to non-aligned countries, many of which are in the global South? We like to think that everyone supports us with respect to Ukraine—that is of course important when we consider the international rules-based order and all the other things about the rule of law and so on—but, actually, there is work to be done with respect to non-aligned nations; the noble Lord, Lord Howell, was quite right to mention that. Again, we will have to consider how we influence those nations alongside our long-standing ally, the United States, as the noble Baroness, Lady Miller, said. I am proud to say that there is a special relationship between us; it is a very important relationship, and one that includes the nuclear deterrent, which is absolutely fundamental to the posture of this Government.

In answer to the noble Baroness’s specific question, there will be a debate on the UK-US treaty on Wednesday 23 October. I look forward to explaining fully the reasons why we have decided to make it an indefinite arrangement rather than the particular arrangement that we have at present. I am not sure of the noble Baroness’s diary but maybe she will be able to find time to be with us there.

The noble and gallant Lord, Lord Houghton, made some really good points about the strategic objectives that we want. He said that the necessity for the review to deliver on what we decide strategically is really important; I could not agree more.

A number of noble Lords—the noble Lords, Lord Alderdice, Lord Howell, Lord De Mauley and Lord Mountevans—mentioned homeland security and civil defence. They will notice that, in terms of what the review will cover, homeland security is specifically mentioned. I mention my declared interest to the noble Lord, Lord De Mauley: my son-in-law is an active member of the reserves in 4 Mercian, so I recognise the importance of the reserves. We need to consider how to deal with them.

A number of noble Lords mentioned defence. One of the reasons why the Government will have a national armaments director is that we clearly need to look at how we can build our defence industrial capability to meet the threats of the future. That means not only what we do but how we work with allies in order to achieve this.

A number of other points were made but I just want to say something about the new threats we will face; these were mentioned by the noble Lords, Lord Alderdice, Lord Howell, Lord De Mauley and Lord Kerr, among others. They are really important and will be part of this. Where do we go with artificial intelligence? Where do we go to with automated air systems and drones? It is about all these sorts of things. How new warfare and the lessons that we are having to learn from Ukraine will impact on what our defence posture should be are really important things for all of us to consider.

A number of noble Lords—including, I think, the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Craig—mentioned recruitment and the retention of personnel. A review of those issues and how we can improve on them is going on.

In conclusion, the first duty of the Government is to keep our country safe. We all agree with that. The discussion, debate and challenge for us all concerns how we do that in the most effective way. Let us make no mistake: the UK is a proud country, and we stand with our allies—those in Europe, obviously, but across the globe as well—in standing up for the principles of freedom, democracy, the rule of law and the international rules-based order, as we always have done. At the moment, there is a challenge to those principles. I think we should be proud of the fact that our country, alongside our allies—including those new and fresh allies to be made—is standing up to that challenge. We are looking at how we can achieve that, standing, as I say, with our friends. We will require the review from the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, to help us to deliver that, but we can be proud of the fact that we can do it and proud that, as a democracy, we are openly debating how to develop the Armed Forces we need in order to achieve it.