Scotland Bill

Lord Bruce of Bennachie Excerpts

Monday 22nd February 2016 Lords Chamber

[Lord Darling of Roulanish]

In relation to the Barnett formula, I chose my words carefully. I said that it worked; I did not go on to say “terribly well” or “extremely well” or “without any complaint”. If you look at the north-west of England, there is a legitimate complaint there that Barnett treats it the same as it does the south-east of England, when their economies are clearly very different. I know that successive Chancellors looked at the Barnett formula. I looked at it in the halcyon period of the three weeks between taking office and discovering that Northern Rock was on the horizon, which presented me with rather more pressing problems that I had to deal with. But I can see why, it having been there for so long, no one has touched it. I am sure that others in this House will know that the late Joel Barnett often said that he never intended it to last. It was a fix but it worked. However, where I agree with the noble and learned Lord—I will confess to not having studied his proposed new subsection (2) in the detail I perhaps should have done—is that if we are having a new system, we really need to know how it works. What we do not want is what happened in the aftermath of the Smith commission, when everybody signed up to it and the next day it was denounced. That will not work. If we have something that does not work, let us find out now rather than coming to that awful realisation over several months and years to come.

[Lord Bruce of Bennachie (LD)]

I support Amendment 76 but I have sympathy with all these amendments. I think the noble Lord, Lord Darling, has just touched on the value of a federal system, which I suspect the UK will have to come up with if it is to find a stable solution. In the context of Canada, where I spent some time last summer, I was well aware that for years the Albertans complained that they were subsidising Quebec. But right now the Albertans are grateful to have the support of Ontario, as the oil price has collapsed. That is the benefit of being part of a union with the ability to move fiscal transfers around, as the shocks hit different parts of the economy. I suspect that the majority of people in Scotland voted to stay in the United Kingdom because their heads told them that was the reality.

Apart from simple practice, the other issue with the Barnett formula is that, as the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, said, as a formula it has narrowed the gap between Scotland and the rest of the UK. That is why while it was 25% when he was Secretary of State, it is now 20%. When people talk about the Barnett formula, they are not really talking about that but about the historical difference in spending in Scotland, which predates the formula and has arrived for a variety of reasons. Again, the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, mentioned the difference in per capita spending but I am sure he would recognise that the whole point of a needs-based formula, if that is what we move to, is that it is not based simply on per capita spending but on needs. We should reflect on the fact that Scotland has 40% of the land area of Great Britain and less than 10% of the population so, for example, the unit costs of delivering services such as small schools to remote islands and highlands are inevitably higher. Any formula must at least acknowledge that.

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[Lord Bruce of Bennachie]

I certainly do not repudiate that point, but it is still worth acknowledging the fact because it is often presented in a glib way—by saying that there are not legitimate reasons why some expenditure in Scotland is significantly higher. I have represented a rural constituency and seen the rural schools which people want to keep open, for example. The unit costs for those are much higher than for urban schools, and such examples need to be taken into account.

We are all frustrated by the fact that we are asked to enact the Bill without the fiscal framework being in place. In the earlier debate the noble Lord, Lord Hain, made the point that some 40% of the UK’s wealth is concentrated in the south-east. In the run-up to the referendum, when the oil price was very high, the SNP was keen to say how much oil had sustained the United Kingdom, but it conveniently forgot the extent to which the United Kingdom had had to bail out the Royal Bank of Scotland and the Bank of Scotland, which an independent Scotland simply could not have done. The SNP’s response was that they were of course no longer Scottish banks, but it would have found some difficulty in arguing that case, had Scotland been independent and those banks been headquartered within their system. There are inequalities of argument in that context.

There is another point that needs to be made absolutely clear. If, in future, taxes fund a significant proportion of what was previously provided by the block grant, and if there is a divergence and different circumstances arise, the reality is that a Scottish Government can do only one of two things: put up taxes or cut services. In fact, they could do both those things. It is right that the people of Scotland should recognise that if they vote for independence, they will find it difficult to maintain what they have at the moment, never mind what the Scottish nationalists promise them, on the basis of the current tax-and-spend regime, and I suspect that that is why the majority voted no. The implications of that are significant.

There is one argument that I find really confusing. I am in favour of the European Union and of the United Kingdom, which I find a very consistent argument, and I am puzzled by people who are in favour of the European Union and against the United Kingdom, or vice versa. At least I and my party have a fairly consistent view on these things: they both involve compromise and negotiation, and both require some form of treaty agreement or contract to settle them. The Minister has to acknowledge that we are getting very close to voting through an Act of Parliament literally in the dark—one that has serious implications for the people of Scotland and is not being properly debated in Scotland. I completely understand the position taken by Labour Front-Benchers—I would not have supported the amendment of the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, for the same reason—but we are in danger of allowing the argument to be run by one side; we need to hear a balanced argument. We need to hear generosity from the United Kingdom, because the people of Scotland have said that they want to be part of the United Kingdom. I think the UK will say to the people of Scotland, “We want you to stay; we want to find a settlement that works for both of us”. It is not good enough simply to say, “You are going to get that tax. It is up to you what you do with it. If it falls short, that is your problem”. That is why I support Amendment 76, and the other amendments in the group have a similar intention. Never mind no detriment: we have to recognise that we need a basic, practical, working arrangement that says, if there is clearly an unsustainable disadvantage to the people of Scotland from a formula that has been openly and honestly agreed, we are prepared to revisit it. Amendment 76 gives a framework for doing that.

It is essential that the Minister address two issues. First, he must explain how we can enact this legislation without having formally acknowledged the formula written in both Houses of Parliament and the Scottish Parliament. Secondly, and more to the point, if we are not able to deal with the matter here and these amendments are not accepted, that leaves the Scottish Parliament as the only arbiter of whether this goes ahead. We all know that it is likely to say, “We couldn’t get a deal so you have to vote for us, because nobody else will give you a decent deal”. However, the truth is that it was offered a pretty generous deal that would have protected Scotland’s position in the United Kingdom and given it more powers and control, which it rejected for the simple reason that it was terrified of the responsibility of having to take these issues up with the people of Scotland and explain the reality of the resources it had and how it was going to balance them out. That is the everyday debate of politics everywhere—except, at the moment, Scotland. We are debating this issue in a vacuum, without facing the fundamental reality that Scotland benefits from being part of the United Kingdom. Scotland wants more control over its own affairs. We have an agreement in principle to deliver that, but we do not have a fiscal framework. Whatever framework is introduced, we need to make sure that we have a mechanism for reviewing it genuinely to reassure the people of Scotland and ensure that it will be fairly and independently assessed, and that if there is a clearly unacceptable and unsustainable disadvantage, as determined by independent commissioners, action will be taken to put that right. If we can get that right, we can win the argument.

[Lord Turnbull (CB)]

My Lords, I support Amendment 75A moved by the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, on debt and borrowing. The amendment is founded on the principle that the UK is a union, constitutionally and financially. There is a common currency, single monetary policy, single exchange rate and a banking union. We have some banks that pretend their headquarters are in Scotland, but they are not really. The public finances of Scotland and the rest of the UK are inextricably intertwined. A large part of public services has been financed—even under the new arrangements, when they are unveiled—by grants from the UK or assignment of revenues. Departments of Her Majesty’s Government have large budgets that they spend directly in Scotland.

The SNP may not like the fact that the union exists, but it does, and certain consequences follow. When the Economic Affairs Committee took evidence on post-referendum arrangements, there was little appetite by then for full fiscal autonomy. It was always an illusion, but it was thoroughly punctured by the gaps in the oil price. Some witnesses argued that, in addition to sensible arrangements to deal with short-term fluctuations, Scotland could operate a separate borrowing regime, financed by borrowing in its own name. In effect, that would be policed by financial markets and underpinned by a no bail-out rule. As noble Lords have mentioned, debt issued by the Scottish Government would have its own credit rating with its own risk assessment, and if debt issuance was thought to be excessive its cost would rise and the Scottish Government would be forced to respond. However, most witnesses did not believe this model, given the extent to which the two economies are interlinked, and no one really thought that a no bail-out clause was plausible. Most notably, the noble Lord, Lord Darling, told the Committee that the eurozone has a no bail-out rule that we can see “works very well”. I think he was being ironic, but I cannot be absolutely sure. He thought that a no bail-out rule would be,

“unnecessary and downright provocative and actually sound very patronising … I am part of the UK as well; do not tell me I cannot be bailed out by a country that I happen to be a citizen of”.

That was strongly endorsed by the Committee.

During the course of the referendum, there was some loose talk that said, in effect, “Vote for us and we will put an end to austerity”, but even now in Holyrood there is a recognition that although borrowing policy does not have to be identical to that of the UK, it nevertheless has to be consistent with it and supportive of policy for the UK as a whole. Two things follow from that. First, the amount of borrowing year by year cannot be such as to undermine the Government’s overall borrowing objective. Secondly, the stock of debt, relative to some measure of capacity to repay, cannot be such as to raise the spectre that the UK Government might have to intervene. As the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, stated, this amendment does not seek to specify what those various ratios should be. They should rightly be in secondary legislation. Why, then, is the amendment needed? It is needed to entrench the principle that Scottish fiscal and debt policy cannot be decided unilaterally in Scotland. It has to be related to the policy of the UK as a whole and the limits must be set by the Treasury, after consulting the Scottish Government, and should be approved by Parliament. In that way, the amendment fills one of the holes in the Bill, although many are left.

The noble Lord, Lord McFall, mentioned an article, “Sleight of Hand”, by Jim Gallagher, who, as many noble Lords will know, is a former Scottish civil servant and is now a professor. However, the noble Lord did not read the last paragraph:

“So I wonder if this is less about fiscal formulae and more about nationalist politics. It’s becoming pretty clear that the SNP won’t promise another referendum after the next Holyrood election. They think they’d lose. But without it they’ll have nothing to talk about. So maybe their aim is to reject the fiscal framework, whatever is offered and so derail the new powers in the Scotland Bill. Then they can spend the next five years arguing about power, not exercising it”.