Iran: Stability in the Middle East

Lord Browne of Ladyton Excerpts

Thursday 30th January 2020 Lords Chamber

[Lord Browne of Ladyton (Lab)]

My Lords, I draw attention to my entry in the register of interests, particularly my chairmanship of the European Leadership Network. I thank my noble friend Lord Turnberg for securing this debate and I am honoured to follow my noble friend Lady Ashton, whom I admire greatly.

The recent escalation in the Middle East has not occurred in a vacuum. To understand it properly and honestly, we must understand the logic that drives Iran’s regional policies and recognise the geopolitical environment in which it operates.

Iran’s policies in the region are not exclusive to the Government who resulted from the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The strategy of supporting allied non-state actors and forces across the region spans at least six decades and can, in many ways, be seen as a continuation of centuries of imperial prowess. In the 1980s, this strategy morphed when conventional deterrence models lost hold and states began to review and test conventional deterrence structures, which, in the case of Iran, resulted in a marked and significant shift towards asymmetric deterrence, which I condemn as much as any other speaker. But we need to understand this if we are to deal with it properly.

This process continues. States across the region regularly re-test their red lines to re-establish deterrence, substantially increasing the risk of miscalculation and miscommunication. What we have witnessed recently between the US and Iran is but the most recent example of this. Tackled in isolation, Iran will not limit its regional influence and defences in the face of US or any other “maximum pressure”. For example, singling out Iran’s missile programmes ignores the fact that it is one of 11 countries in the region that possess long-range missiles. We need to recognise that more parties need to be brought to the table. Only region-wide approaches offer solutions to the region’s risks and confrontations.

We must accept that all regional states have legitimate security interests. This approach led to the landmark JCPOA nuclear deal in 2015, whose focus on the nuclear question was meant to be the stepping stone for future confidence-based conversations on other issues. Now we are in a completely different situation. We have to hope that the current pause in military escalation is not taken for granted and that the risk of war, which is genuine, spurs dialogue. Europe will pay a high cost for any regional conflict with Iran. Instability would fuel a potential resurgence of Daesh in Iraq and Syria, as well as new, larger flows of refugees, drugs and who knows what else. The E3—the UK, France and Germany—need to move beyond the JCPOA in their outreach with Iran and in their engagement with region-wide efforts, including those made by Iran, such as the Hormuz Peace Endeavor.

The European Leadership Network has been working extensively on Iran, in the context of the region, the nuclear deal and facilitating trade with Europe through INSTEX. On Monday, it released policy options for the UK and its partners to pursue in the coming weeks and months to help de-escalate tension on both nuclear and non-nuclear issues. I hope that Ministers will find time to review them, as they feed directly into the areas raised in this debate.