Ukraine: Tactical Nuclear Weapons
Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts(1 year, 12 months ago)
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Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)
My Lords, I join the broad cross-party consensus in support of Ukraine. I say to my noble friend Lord Campbell-Savours and the noble Lord, Lord Skidelsky, that it would surely pose a very poor precedent if Russia were to be seen to gain from its illegal and unjustified intervention and emerge with some territorial advantage from that, contrary to the international undertakings that it has made for the last 10 or 15 years.
It is right that the noble and right reverend Lord, Lord Harries, has drawn attention to the danger of Putin’s nuclear rhetoric and the threat to break what has been a taboo since 1945. Like the noble Lord, Lord Howell, I see the difficulty of drawing a distinction between battlefield nuclear and other forms of weapons, and see the great danger of escalation.
It is clear that much has changed as a result of both Crimea in 2014 and the invasion in February this year. It was only 20 or so years ago that I recall that there was even a Russian office at NATO headquarters, and we had the NATO-Russia Act. Much has changed since that time. This conflict will have seen the nature of modern warfare changed, with the use of drones even in naval warfare at Sevastopol. It will perhaps also lead to a revision of the western view of the quality of the Russian military.
Since the invasion of Crimea in 2014, it is good that we and other NATO countries have joined in training the Ukrainian forces. It is also right that NATO has emphasised that this is a matter for Ukraine of territorial defence, not of offence over the borders of Russia, and that we are not co-belligerents, but in support of a country that has been invaded. To that extent, NATO policy is absolutely right.
It is good too that America, as President Biden has said, is back. US forces have been extremely helpful. The hero of the conflict will probably be President Zelensky as a great leader of his own people. I say with respect to Yaroslavsky, that this is the Great Patriotic War of the people of Ukraine. Another hero, in my judgment, has been Secretary-General Stoltenberg, who has shown a steady hand at key moments. By contrast, President Putin will surely be judged by history to have massively miscalculated the effect of his invasion. That view he had of taking Kyiv in a few days was shared by many at NATO headquarters. Part of that miscalculation has been provoking Finland and Sweden to join NATO. We know that 28 of the 30 NATO countries have so far ratified and I understand that Hungary will have a debate on it on 7 December. Following moves made by Sweden, Finland is also moving, following the accord it reached in June. Will the Minister comment on the prospects, as seen by our Government, of the accession of Finland and Sweden?
I have two final observations. The first is that this is a clear invasion. It is most distressing that key countries such as China, for example, so keen on non-interference in the domestic affairs of other countries, cannot see that invasion is the worst sort of interference. Of course, other Commonwealth countries, including India and South Africa, and many African countries are not in support.
Finally, what is the likely endgame and who will pay for reconstruction? Some say we should not humiliate Putin. In my judgment, so long as Russia is left with some territorial gains, it will be tempted to launch further attacks on Ukraine. One of the few certainties is that, at the end of this conflict, Russia and Putin will be weakened in strength and in reputation and that NATO, led by the US, is not brain-dead or irrelevant, but much stronger and more relevant.
Missile Incident in Poland
Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts(2 years ago)
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Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon (Con)
My Lords, we are fully engaged in training personnel; from the annexation of Crimea, we have been working strongly with the Ukrainian authorities and have specific programmes for it. There is currently a live programme training 10,000 personnel and a raft of other programmes and initiatives that we are running directly with the Ukrainian authorities to ensure that they do not just have the best equipment, which we are providing, but are well trained in using it.
Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)
The Minister and my noble friend were right to praise the restraint of the Polish Government—incidentally, they have also responded magnificently to the refugee crisis—but does this incident not reveal vulnerabilities? Poland held back and refused to invoke Article 5 of NATO, yet Russia is waging cyberwarfare at the moment on a number of NATO countries. Is it the Government’s view that cyberwarfare is capable of leading to an invocation of Article 5?
Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon (Con)
My Lords, I will not speculate on the triggers of Article 5. The Polish Government followed the protocols very specifically; they reflected on the Article 4 elements of ensuring that consultation took place immediately with NATO members, which was the right approach as facts were being established. The noble Lord rightly raises the threat and challenge posed by cyberwarfare. I do not recall if he was in the House yesterday when we discussed the situation in Georgia—the continued occupation of the breakaway republics and the Russian influence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia—but one of the areas of support we are providing to the Georgian authorities is in exactly that space. The United Kingdom is among the leaders on cyber, in both dealing with cyber threat and cyber defences. I assure him that we are focused on all these fronts in our response to, and support of, not just Ukraine but other countries directly impacted by Russian aggression.
Nigeria
Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts(2 years, 4 months ago)
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Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon (Con)
My Lords, I agree with the noble Baroness: the primary responsibility of any Government anywhere in the world is the security of their citizens, irrespective of who they are or what faith they may follow. I assure her that, bilaterally as well as through multilateral fora, we continue not only to condemn these kidnappings and the violence that occurs but we are also working, through our security and defence partnership with Nigeria, to try to build capacity to respond to the kidnaps and bring communities together.
Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)
My Lords, the Minister used the phrase “resource competition”. Is that, in fact, a euphemism for population increase that is becoming unsustainable, and are we able to help Nigeria at all in terms of family planning?
Tigray
Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts(2 years, 4 months ago)
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Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon (Con)
My Lords, I agree with the noble Lord about the need for co-ordination. As I said earlier, that is why we are working with key UN agencies in particular, which are among the first to gain access to some of the regions the noble Lord has highlighted. We are looking specifically at other regions, as I said earlier, including Oromia, Somali and Amhara. However, the point is well made. We are co-ordinating our efforts; on whether it requires an international conference specific to this issue, a broader range of conferences is currently taking place where this key issue of food security and famine relief should be central to the thinking and outcomes.
Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)
Does the Minister agree that it is surely one of the tragedies of our time that, just a few years ago, Ethiopia was considered a model and one of the African success stories? Since then, the Nobel prize-winning Prime Minister has alienated minorities, brought in Eritreans on his side and generally helped to cause the humanitarian crisis which is the subject of this Question. Was this matter raised at the recent CHOGM summit in Kigali because of the proximity of Uganda and Kenya? What can we do in terms of co-ordination?
Commonwealth
Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts(2 years, 5 months ago)
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Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon (Con)
Again, I agree with my noble friend in his expert analysis and the wise counsel he offers to the FCDO. It is important that we remain vigilant. Indeed, it is not just across Africa, when we see the recent engagement of China across the Pacific and particularly on specific islands. That is why we are, through the announcement of British International Investment, working with key partners in ensuring that there is a long-term structured offer to all members of the Commonwealth in ensuring their sustainability and economic progress.
Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)
My Lords, while welcoming the fact that the Commonwealth is still attractive to new members, we are bound to ask whether there are now any relevant criteria for membership such as links with Britain or human rights credentials.
Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon (Con)
On the noble Lord’s second point, there is a very strong and objective criterion assessment. No new member state joins unless the existing members of the Commonwealth agree. On the issue of past history, I think the Commonwealth is moving forward. Rwanda was never part of our imperial past, but it is very much part of our common future within the Commonwealth family.
Food Insecurity: England
Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts(2 years, 5 months ago)
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Lord Goldsmith of Richmond Park (Con)
My Lords, I am aware of the study the noble Lord cites, but I do not pretend to be an expert in this area. The Government’s view is that the proposed policy to inhibit, for example, “Buy one, get one free” offers has been postponed to provide immediate relief for those people facing acute food insecurity and poverty. The policy has not been abandoned; it has simply been parked.
Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)
Is the noble Lord aware that recruiters are forced to go further and further afield in an effort to find pickers—even to Nepal and the West Indies? Is this a result not only of the war in Ukraine but of Brexit, and therefore could it have been foreseen?
Lord Goldsmith of Richmond Park (Con)
The noble Lord makes an important point. The department that I am representing is working closely with the Home Office to ensure we have the labour we need to pick and collect the food that is produced in this country.
Russia and Ukraine: Settlement
Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts(2 years, 6 months ago)
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Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon (Con)
My Lords, I totally agree with my noble friend. The Government are engaging at the top level. My right honourable friend the Prime Minister engages regularly with President Zelensky on the principles that he has articulated. Let us be clear: President Zelensky has said “Let’s meet” directly to Mr Putin. It is important that we get behind his efforts.
Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)
Does the Minister recall that the Foreign Secretary spoke of reclaiming all the lands lost by Ukraine, which would presumably include Crimea and be a recipe for continued and long-term conflict? That was at a time when President Zelensky was speaking of returning to the borders of 24 February, although I concede that he has hardened his line a little. Essentially, he has been pragmatic. Was it not unwise of the Foreign Secretary to be more hard-line than the President?
Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon (Con)
My Lords, what my right honourable friend the Foreign Secretary articulated was on the basis of international borders and recognising the sovereignty and integrity of Ukraine. The 2014 annexation of Crimea was illegal.
Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe: Forced Confession
Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts(2 years, 6 months ago)
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Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon (Con)
My Lords, I agree with my noble friend. The IMS debt, a subject which several noble Lords have repeatedly raised, was owed by the United Kingdom Government and it was right that it was paid. While the details of the terms remain confidential, it is clear that the proceeds of those funds are primarily assigned specifically and only for humanitarian causes. Equally, I agree with my noble friend that Iran needs to do some really hard thinking because, when agreements are reached, particularly on sensitive issues such as those around the JCPOA—the deal is now ready and on the table— every country comes to a negotiation in good faith and once agreements are reached it is incumbent on every country to uphold them.
Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)
My Lords, there is no personal blame attached to the Minister, who is highly respected by all sides of House, but would he, on reflection, agree that the length of custody of the poor, unfortunate Ms Zaghari-Ratcliffe has been lengthened as a result of government action and inaction? I cite first the fact that the Prime Minister when Foreign Secretary misread or misinterpreted the purpose of her visit to Iran, and then the long delay in repaying a loan which everyone agreed was due and owing to Iran at the time. Finally, did the Foreign Office official simply stand idly by at the airport and make no protest or written note of what was happening? Was Ms Zaghari-Ratcliffe warned in advance that she would be asked to sign this false confession? It all sounds very unsavoury.
Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon (Con)
My Lords, I have already answered the final point the noble Lord raises. On the IMS debt, I am sure that he accepts that it was a complex negotiation and it is important that we reached a settlement. That debt has now been honoured on our part and paid. On the broader issue I agree that, irrespective of where you come from on this issue, Nazanin’s detention was wrong, it was flawed, and it had to be addressed. Yes, she was in detention for far too long. She did not deserve any detention, even for a day, and the same applies to those currently detained in Iran, and I again call on the Iranian authorities. It is within their gift to release British nationals who are being detained—and, in the case that the noble Lord, Lord Collins, raised, a tri-national, so there are also sensitivities with the United States, but we will continue to call for the release of all detainees in Iran.
Queen’s Speech
Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts(2 years, 6 months ago)
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Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)
My Lords, I adopt all the wise words of the noble Lord, Lord Hannay.
Two weeks ago, Professor Frankopan wrote in the Times that we are now at a “turning point in history”. Is that justified? It cannot rest solely on the crisis in Ukraine. There are other factors, such as the sequelae of Covid, the closure of Chinese ports, extreme weather in India and so on, but surely the crisis in Ukraine is the main basis for that claim. The outcome is now uncertain but it is clear that Russia has failed in its major war aims.
I will make two reflections: first, on the errors of President Putin, and, secondly, on the possible geopolitical consequences of the crisis. Clearly, President Putin made a major miscalculation. Perhaps he misread the West’s response to the debacle of Afghanistan and, earlier, Georgia, in 2008, and Crimea, in 2014. He assumed that it would be a similarly weak response, and he wished to indulge his fantasies and rebuild Russia’s sphere of influence. In fact, he has been met with a united response from the West: the supply of arms to Ukraine, and I commend the role of the UK in this; the reversal of Germany’s traditional policies; and the unity of the European Union—which surely argues the case for a closer relationship between us on the CFSP and CSDP—and NATO, as our key alliance. There is also the unintended consequence of Finland and Sweden seeking to join NATO; they will be contributors to the security of the alliance. Western unity was seen in the general imposition of sanctions against Russia and its oligarchs, from oil and gas to Eurovision and even McDonald’s. The result is that the Russian economy is scheduled to shrink by 12% this year. In the longer term, one asks where Russia’s main exports will come from, as dependence on oil and gas reduces and the failure of the military means that there will be less demand. Who now buys Russian consumer goods?
Russia is faced with international isolation and its military matériel faces the real test in war; a test of its leadership and of the quality of its arms. It chose inadequate preparation and stockpiles, made optimistic assumptions of taking Kyiv, and has had weapons failure—and perhaps here there is an opportunity for our own exporters. It failed to factor in the solidarity of Ukraine in its grand patriotic war, or the inspired leadership of President Zelensky. Napoleon said that, in war, the mental element overreaches the physical by a factor of three to one. Incidentally, the way that the inexperienced Foreign Secretary here speaks of taking the whole of Ukraine is—just like her gung ho approach to Northern Ireland—of course wrong. We have seen Russia diminished, and this is likely to have a serious and long-lasting effect.
My second reflection is that there is a major geostrategic change in prospect. The broad principle is that democracy was in decline with the strongmen, but now there could be a boost for the democrats over the autocrats who see no checks and balances. There is a potential stark effect on developing countries, as the noble Lord, Lord King, said, with prices and energy costs rising, likely increased instability and, as the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, has said, increased migration. Russia has threatened a nuclear response and there would clearly be implications for the NPT. We could see a realignment of the major powers, particularly the relationship between Russia and China. Russia claims that China is now an equal. Clearly, with the decline of Russia, there will be a more lopsided relationship, with a greater dependence of Russia on China. Perhaps the Minister could comment on this.
Finally, we must ensure that Putin’s reckless gamble does not succeed and we must strengthen our alliances. I concede that we now see through a glass darkly, but the global tectonic plates are shifting, and we may indeed be at a turning point in our history.
Worldwide Displacement of Refugees
Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts(2 years, 7 months ago)
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Lord Goldsmith of Richmond Park (Con)
My Lords, I am afraid that I do not know the answer to that, but I would imagine that the noble Lord is right and that it is a very significant figure. However, with his permission I will convey his question to the Home Office and get back to him.
Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)
Does the Minister agree that the real challenge lies not in identifying the causes of migration, which include poverty, repressive regimes and, yes, conflict and climate change, but rather in forging an international consensus to tackle those root causes? What initiatives does the Minister have in mind?
Lord Goldsmith of Richmond Park (Con)
The noble Lord is right that the solution is a global one, but that is precisely why the UK is putting in so much effort, not only through the duration of our presidency of COP, which of course did not end in Glasgow—it ends when we hand the baton to Egypt at the end of this year—but also through the CBD nature COP, which is being hosted by China in Kunming. I do not think there is any country in the world—and I would even include the host country—that is putting more effort into seeking the highest possible ambition. In addition to that, a great friend of the United Kingdom, Andrea Meza, a former Environment Minister of Costa Rica, is now running things in the UNCCD—the desertification COP—and we will be working extremely closely with her to ensure that there too we get the highest possible ambition.