EU and Russia (EUC Report)

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Tuesday 24th March 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, I warmly congratulate the noble Earl, Lord Oxford and Asquith. With this debate, we have certainly played into his strong suit. I also congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Tugendhat, and the members of the committee. They stress as a continuing theme the need to understand Russia and Russian civilisation. In our country we have lost much of that expertise, as the noble Baroness, Lady Coussins, mentioned in her contribution. I recall that when we recognised this in the 1960s we set up the Hayter report, as a result of which several new posts were established in our universities. Where are they now? I understand that many of them no longer exist. We need to encourage the study of Russian and Russian civilisation.

I have two preliminary observations. This is of course a fast-moving situation. The report was ordered to be printed on 10 February, two days before the conclusion of the Minsk II agreement. Secondly, the report exposes the effect of the limit of the remit of the House of Lords European Union Committee: we do not have a foreign affairs committee so everything must be looked at through the lens of the European Union, which has meant that the report is not as rounded and comprehensive an analysis as it might have been. Hence, for example, the important NATO dimension is hardly examined in the report but it would have been had there been a foreign affairs committee, as in the other place. To be fair, the report mentions the Council of Europe, which has exercised its own sanctions in its Assembly, in that the Russian delegation has withdrawn itself.

Equally, as mentioned by the right reverend Prelate, paragraph 325 of the report contains a postscript on UK government policy on the European Convention on Human Rights. If we were to have a pick-and-choose policy in relation to the convention, that would certainly give the Russians a major precedent to pick and chose, and we would devalue any influence we might otherwise have.

A crisis of this magnitude throws important light on the principal actors in the drama. What does it tell us about Russia? Given its economic weakness, which the noble Lord, Lord Jopling, has just underlined, President Putin has played his cards with consummate skill. We must understand Russia’s fear of encirclement, its desire to end the perceived humiliation after the loss of the Soviet Union and the Soviet empire, the reaction to the anarchy of the 1990s, the search for the restoration of great power status and the pivot to the east to make up for the loss in the west. All this explains the return to traditional themes of authoritarianism, patriotism and the role of the Orthodox Church. It also exposes the weakness of our policy assumption before and after the 1990s that Russia was on a journey to western-style democracy.

On NATO expansion, many serious observers argue that Secretary James Baker gave the clear impression to Russia that, in return for recognising the independence of the Baltic states, NATO would not expand eastwards. The Istanbul summit put an end to that. I understand the Government’s case that Ukraine is a sovereign country which can choose its alliances as it will, but to join NATO would be hugely provocative to Russia. A wise course would be for President Poroshenko to recognise this and for NATO to give a similar undertaking. That is surely necessary if we wish to live in peace with Russia.

What does the crisis tell us about the West? Once military intervention has been ruled out, only sanctions and attempts to isolate Russia remain. So far, there has been a remarkable degree of consensus within the European Union but, as last week’s Council illustrated very clearly, this may well not last as President Putin is seeking to divide and conquer. It is possible that there will not be the required unanimity when we renew the current sanctions, particularly tier 3. As over Georgia, economic interests will prevail. There will be business as usual. For example, last week, we saw Russia’s incremental quasi-annexation of South Ossetia to provide a possible precedent for Donbass.

What does the crisis tell us about the UK’s role? We recall that the UK was one of the four signatories of the Budapest declaration 1994, which has now been massively breached by Russia redrawing national boundaries. The fact that we were not part of the EU team at Minsk can be construed only as a signal of our diminishing status.

How should the West respond? On the economic side, clearly we must mobilise western capital, with conditionality, for Ukraine. We should continue to assist with constitution building with the Venice commission and other groups, and particularly with proposals for decentralisation. Just as Ukraine will have to deal with Russia for energy supplies, we should aim to make progress with Russia in areas of policy of common interest. Russia apparently showed a very positive response at the pre-conference on the non-proliferation treaty. Other areas include counterterrorism, ISIL and Iran. We should maintain sanctions but be ready to ratchet down if Russia continues broadly to observe Minsk II. Overall, the trust has disappeared.

Finally, Galbraith said something like, “All foreign policy decisions involve a choice between the disastrous and the unpalatable”. It would be disastrous to provide Ukraine with US arms. Can one imagine the effect when the first Russian soldier was killed by US guns? It would, nevertheless, be unpalatable but realistic if we were to allow some time for monitoring the implementation of Minsk II.

Crimea is not mentioned in Minsk II. Surely, like it or not, it is now permanently part of Russia, symbolised by the fact that Russia is spending €3.5 billion to construct a 19-kilometre bridge that will link Crimea across the straits to what it would call its motherland, to be completed by 2018. A credible referendum held in Crimea now would probably confirm the illegal one. It is absurd for the US to argue that sanctions must remain until Russia gives up Crimea, which would mean indefinitely. Obviously the options with regard to Donbass are very difficult and different; there would have to be negotiations over the autonomy measure. It is also unpalatable to yield to Russian aggression and lies, but we shall have to live with the new, nationalist Russia: keep doors open, but sup with a longer spoon. Almost 70 years after Kennan’s historic article, we should perhaps re-examine the case for containment.

Syria

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Wednesday 18th March 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, we should remember that President Assad as, also, commander-in-chief of the Syrian forces, presided over the deaths of 200,000 of his own people. He has barrel-bombed them and used chemical weapons. Indeed, a recent report of 16 March suggests they have been used in Idlib. Assad is not the person with whom to negotiate for the solution. We are in negotiation with moderates. I agree with the noble Lord, Lord Green, that it is important that negotiations achieve a peaceful transition in line with the Geneva communiqué. It is that work in which we are engaged.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, however distasteful, should we not recognise that if a long-term solution is to be found to this tragic conflict, we will have to engage with President Assad in some way? In spite of the barrel bombs, the torture and the enormous loss of life, and with all his faults, Assad is marginally less bad than ISIL.

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, I would not like to say that he is a lesser of two evils. He has shown that he is evil in himself. I will not try to calculate percentages of evil—that would be an affront to those whom he has been responsible for killing in Syria. However, the noble Lord has made a very strong point. With whom does one negotiate? I am aware when I go to the Human Rights Council in Geneva that Assad’s people are there. They are part of the furniture. They are part of those who negotiate on whether a human rights Motion on Syria is passed there and at the United Nations. Negotiation with Assad himself is not part of our proposals.

Cyprus: Russian Military Base

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Tuesday 10th March 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, I have made it clear in this House before that it cannot be business as usual with Russia while it maintains its position over Ukraine, where it has illegally annexed the Crimea and intervened in another state’s sovereign lands. My noble friend refers to a situation in the Republic of Cyprus that I do not recognise. When speaking to Russian media, President Anastasiades explicitly ruled out the use of Limassol port for military purposes. Foreign Minister Kasoulides also said to the press, after the February EU Foreign Affairs Committee meeting in Brussels, that there was no question of Russian air or naval military bases on the soil of Cyprus. It is a continuation of existing agreements.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

In the light of this decision, the visit of President Anastasiades to Moscow, the policies of the new Greek Government and the policy of the Government of Hungary, are the Government concerned about the consensus on Ukraine among the EU countries that remain?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, it is important that the EU maintains the consensus that it has heretofore. We have, as the European Union, shown remarkable unity throughout the crisis in standing up to Russian aggression and protecting the EU’s interests. For example, the UK has supported NATO allies, demonstrating our commitment at last September’s summit by agreeing to the readiness action plan to enhance NATO’s response to a wide range of threats. There will be an opportunity very soon, at the European Council, for the EU to show the maintenance of its unity over sanctions.

Ukraine

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Tuesday 10th February 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, first, with regard to aid, the IMF has indeed been carrying out investigations as to the measure of the gap between what Ukraine has, what it needs and what may need to be provided for it. In fact, the next IMF review reports in the middle of this month and will identify the need for further macroeconomic support. At that stage we will be able to judge what our contribution should continue to be. With regard to defensive materiel, my right honourable friend has made it clear in another place that that is something that every NATO country has the right to consider. At this stage, we are not considering supplying or selling defensive materiel to the Ukrainians, who are defending themselves against Russian-supported assault. It is important that pressure is kept up on Mr Putin to do the right thing.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, so far the EU consensus has held remarkably well but, for the sanctions package to be renewed, I believe that there has to be unanimous support in the EU Council and that vote will be in July. Given the close relationship between the new Greek Government and the Russian Government, and between Prime Minister Tsipras and President Putin, what are the realistic prospects of that consensus maintaining?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, since the election of the new Greek Government, there have been two occasions on which sanctions have been discussed at a European level. On each of those occasions, the Greek Government have agreed with the consensus of the EU-wide view that it is important to continue these sanctions. Yesterday, in the European Affairs Council, when the next tranche in ramping up sanctions was discussed further, it was decided to postpone their implementation until 16 February to give the diplomatic discussions this week a chance. There was consensus and it is important for all of us that consensus remains.

United Nations Secretary-General: Selection

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Thursday 22nd January 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, there are quite a few questions there, but important ones, which I shall answer as briefly as I can. The veto is within the format of the constitution—the rules of the game—so there would have to be a change in the rules for the veto to be abandoned. My noble friend refers to the method of selection last time. Last time, of course, Ban Ki-moon was unopposed for a second term, and it is clear that when he was selected at that stage, China had made it known that it would not accept anybody other than an Asian candidate. The method of selection was across the membership, but clearly the P5 have a crucial role to play. My noble friend is right to point out that it is important for women to be considered, too—and with a woman Leader of this House, a woman Leader of the Opposition and a woman on the Woolsack, who would dare think anything else?

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, is it not the case that there are two admirable women in the frame—Helen Clark and Gro Harlem Brundtland? They would not be secretaries; they would be generals.

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

I always listen with great interest to the noble Lord, Lord Anderson. He enables me to answer another of the several questions that my noble friend Lady Falkner asked with regard to candidates. Names are, indeed, beginning to be floated. If I may change my analogy, it is almost like a susurration—but, as with all susurrations, the names change as well. The noble Lord may have the latest names; there is quite a little list, I think. We do, indeed, need not only secretaries but generals, too.

Yemen

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Wednesday 21st January 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My noble friend is right to draw attention to the fact that it is important that this does not become a sectarian matter. In the past it has been a three-way battle between the three groups of AQAP, the Hadis and the Houthis. It is important that that does not develop into a sectarian matter. We are working closely with the UN on all these matters, and I know that it has been meeting for a discussion of this today. I assure my noble friend that everything is being done by our embassy through the G10 and the Friends of Yemen to ensure that we get back on track with the peace process.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

Our key concern must surely be for the safety of the few British nationals who remain in Yemen and, of course, with our own diplomatic staff—and also, of course, for the danger of a boost to al-Qaeda there and in the wider region. Given that the interests of Saudi Arabia are very involved and that it has been intervening at the border in the past, does the Minister see any danger of a wider and possibly military intervention by Saudi Arabia?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

As the noble Lord will be readily aware, we are working through the Friends of Yemen with a wide variety of actors to try to get back on track with the peace process. Of course, he is right to point to the security problems in the area. We know that Saudi Arabia is a main actor in trying to protect its own borders. He can be assured that our embassy staff work constantly in negotiations with other countries to ensure that cross-border activity is prevented.

The noble Lord has given me the opportunity, for which I am grateful, to pay great tribute to our ambassador in Sana’a, Jane Marriott, and all those who work with her, along with those who travel out of necessity from the FCO to do work there. We advise others not to travel, but some have to in order to keep us safe.

Ukraine

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Thursday 8th January 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, we are not picking fights with the Russians; it was the Russians who invaded and took Crimea. We are simply making sure that we hold them to their international obligations. The noble Lord is right to point to the importance of the development of Ukraine, but first, of course, they have a lot to do in addressing reform in their country, in particular corruption.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, is the Minister confident that the West and the international financial institutions are geared to prevent an imminent collapse of the economy of Ukraine? The conventional figure being bandied around is $27 billion, but she may have noticed in this morning’s Financial Times that George Soros was talking about $50 billion and saying that the defence of the economy of the Ukraine is effectively the defence of the West. Are we geared to respond adequately?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, we are watching very carefully what will happen when the IMF reports. The noble Lord, Lord Anderson, is absolutely right to draw attention to what could be a very severe development and I am aware of Mr Soros’s article this morning. However, until we see the assessment by the IMF, it would be improper of me to make a guess as to what action we should take. It is clear, however, that we and our allies across Europe and in the United States are determined that Ukraine should be able to continue to receive proper support.

UN Security Council: Israel and Palestine

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Tuesday 6th January 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, my noble friend points to her request that deadlines should be imposed. In the past, deadlines have never proved to be the opening of a door to a lasting peace. Clearly, she is right to draw attention to the fact that there are many, both in Israel and in the Arab states, who are working hard to achieve a peaceful outcome. The Arab League and the Arab states have a key role in the peace process, and the Arab peace initiative, through its offer of a normalisation of relations between Arab states and Israel in the event of a comprehensive peace agreement, is an important signal of the benefits that peace would bring to the entire region. It needs to be a comprehensive peace agreement. The advantage of a resolution in the United Nations Security Council, if we are able to achieve it, is that one could achieve a peace that is not only signed but delivered and endures.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, apart from continued drift and deterioration, does the noble Baroness agree that the only real alternative to a two-state solution is a one-state solution which would, for demographic reasons, mean the end of democratic Israel? In the light of the fact that Secretary Kerry has tried very hard but failed, does she see any prospect of any initiative from the United States over the next few years? Otherwise, the prospects appear very bleak indeed.

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, I hesitate to disagree with the noble Lord’s tenet that Mr Kerry has now failed, but I do disagree with that reading of recent events. I believe that Mr Kerry is determined to continue to take the peace process further. It was regrettable that the United Nations Security Council was unable to achieve a resolution. We continue to believe that negotiations for a two-state solution are the only way forward. We are aware that both Netanyahu and Abbas are ready to continue negotiations. It is important that that process is allowed to continue and that we now have a period where people take stock of what has happened over the past few days and quietly consider how we may constructively move that peace process further.

Trade Balance

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Thursday 11th December 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Livingston of Parkhead]

The original Question was on the balance of trade, not the balance of payments; they are, of course, two quite different things. The balance of trade is in deficit to around £30 billion; it is a deficit of about 2% of GDP, which is significantly better than under the previous Government, when it was on average 2.5% of GDP. As the UK is growing much faster than its partners it is difficult to forecast exactly when it will come to zero. Certainly the OBR expects to see a significant improvement going forward, but I am reminded of the words of J K Galbraith, who said that the only purpose of economic forecasts is to give astrology a good name.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

There has traditionally been a deficit on our balance of trade, but always this has been counterbalanced by a large surplus on our service industries. Will the Minister therefore pay tribute to them, including the creative industries and the City, for ensuring that?

[Lord Livingston of Parkhead]

The noble Lord is correct that services have been and remain a very strong surplus for the UK. It has to be recognised that, increasingly, services and goods are becoming intermingled. I know that when Rolls-Royce sells a jet engine, almost half the value is a service. One of the things that we should cease doing to a degree is separating off goods and services, because increasingly they are the same. I commend our creative industries, our professional and financial services, our aerospace sector and, indeed, our growing motor vehicle industry which, of course, is the second largest producer of cars in the whole of Europe.

Berlin Wall

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Thursday 6th November 2014 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My noble friend is right.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, is it not a remarkable fact that an East German woman is now the Chancellor of a united Germany? She is a remarkable leader—the main leader in Europe. Surely we should now do our best not to alienate this remarkable woman and go to the point of no return in our relations with the European Union that she has warned us against.

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, the Prime Minister has a very good working relationship with the Chancellor.