Defence Policy (International Relations and Defence Committee Report)

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Friday 30th June 2023 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, the noble Lord, Lord Cormack, ever travels in hope for glad tidings; I fear that he and the committee may be disappointed yet again. Traditionally, it is generally accepted that the two core roles of government are internal security and external defence. As many noble Lords, including my noble friend Lord Robertson, the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, and the noble Lord, Lord Cormack, have said, it is therefore surprising that so little attention is given to the subject in this House at a time when a war is raging and we would likely be affected massively one way or another if Russia were to succeed in that war—and all the more so because we have in this House what the noble Lord, Lord Hennessy, calls the “warriors’ Bench”, together with a former Secretary-General of NATO and other people eminently qualified to contribute to that debate. Yet this debate is at the fag end of the week, on a Friday afternoon.

That said, I very much support this welcome report from the noble Baroness, Lady Anelay, and the committee. She was an outstanding chair. I also welcome the massive contribution made by the excellent staff. The committee covered a wide canvas. It posed serious questions that need answers on, for example, the bet on new technology against mass, as highlighted by the war in Ukraine; the irrelevance of the “just in time” doctrine to actual conflict; the need for stocks because of the attrition rate of modern warfare; the effect of inflation being higher in the defence field than elsewhere; relations with industry; and the organisation of the Ministry of Defence. The committee gave itself a wide remit, and therefore one can concentrate on only one or two reflections.

My first reflection is on the effect of the pace of change. In defence terms, the classic example is the Upholder submarine, which was obsolete as soon as it was launched. I have seen massive changes in my own lifetime. Eighty years ago, as a little boy, I strutted around the streets of Swansea chanting, “We won the war”. Fifty years later, that same little boy was decorated by the German Government for contributions to British-German bilateral relations. Over the following years, we had a series of reality checks for our nation: Suez, east of Suez withdrawal and the Falklands—magnificent, but the last hurrah. Never again could we mount such a magnificent unilateral action.

These cases all emphasised the need for alliances. I recall us debating in the 1990s the need for 40 destroyers and frigates. Now we are down to 18, and next year it will be 17 or even 16. Yes, we still have a key role in the JEF, Five Eyes, AUKUS and so on, but over the past 10 years there have been so many warnings from experts. In recent weeks there have been warnings from insiders; for example, General Sir Tim Radford, who is about to retire as Deputy SACEUR, perhaps demob liberated, forecast in the Daily Telegraph on 20 June that we risk losing our “fortunate” position in NATO if we do not invest for the future and said that we are “just holding on” to our NATO influence. Again, I invite noble Lords to read the evidence of 20 June to the Defence Select Committee from the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Houghton of Richmond, the former CDS. He argued:

“It beggars belief to me that we have a reduced size of army … We don’t have a properly functioning reserve. To me it’s a national embarrassment”.


My second reflection is this: hindsight gives 20/20 vision. Forecasting is particularly hazardous in the defence field, as we have seen recently in the attempted putsch in Russia, which could not really have been forecast. The world is moving on from western dominance. Just look at the voting in the United Nations General Assembly on the invasion of Ukraine. So much for those who yearn for Commonwealth political solidarity. We have to seek alliances, even with imperfect partners.

Yes, Russia is reduced as a threat. It is weakened, but the threat remains because so many assets have been unused in Ukraine. It seeks western vulnerabilities—for example, underwater cables—and is increasingly dependent on China.

China has moved from a regional to a world superpower, powerful across the board. The point about Taiwan was well made by my friend, the noble Lord, Lord Alton.

The Middle East has been neglected by the IR, but there are major changes. Saudi Arabia is distancing itself from the US in relation to Iran and, indeed, to China.

NATO is not brain-dead but has a new vitality and relevance. Finland and Sweden will both be major contributors of personnel and equipment. Think of the new contract with Saab over NLAWs.

The US is our major key ally. It is dominant, but we will nevertheless have to look to a possible Trump presidency and the effects of that in our contingency planning.

I have two final reflections. The first is the looming financial question posed by defence inflation. Can we continue to seek excellence across the board, or must we increasingly look for co-operation with allies, which will assume niche roles for us?

Secondly, the committee argued for cultural change in planning and defence in terms of openness, including openness to Parliament. When I chaired the Foreign Affairs Committee, I used to ask our own intelligence people to please recognise, like the CIA, that we are on the same side, even if we need positive vetting and special private sessions in relevant parliamentary committees.

I recall being one of the new entrants to the senior branch of the Foreign Office 63 years ago. We were lectured by the head of the security department, who sermonised on 1 Peter, chapter 5, verse 8, advising us to be vigilant, as the devil, our enemy,

“prowls around like a roaring lion looking for someone to devour”.

Today, at a time when the future of Europe will be determined by the outcome of the war in Ukraine, we need not only vigilance but resilience and resources. The report highlights many of the key problems we face and merits a very serious response from the Government.