Middle East and North Africa

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Friday 11th February 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, we have had the privilege of listening to two magisterial opening speeches and the benefit of hearing from noble Lords who have drawn on a vast reservoir of experience in the Middle East. My own experience is more limited but in 1967 I visited President Nasser in his home just after the six days’ war. He told me that Israeli airplanes had circled his house, and that it would not happen again. I was again in Egypt last summer where I met members of the Muslim Brotherhood, albeit under the labels of independents, in the Parliament of Egypt. I also met the Arab League. When I saw that Amr Moussa was mingling with the crowds in Tahrir Square, I realised that we did, indeed, have a watershed in this region.

History is happening. Indeed, had this debate taken place even yesterday, it might have had a different tone. There is an old adage that democracies wither and die slowly but autocracies die suddenly by fits. There is a difference between the autocracies in the Middle East—all under pressure—and the monarchies. However, even in Morocco, which has gone further along this route and whose king, Mohammed VI, can claim descent from the Prophet, one is likely to see demands for a more constitutional monarchy. One’s first thought is that, as in 1989—the year of revolutions—events have caught Governments by surprise. I suppose the only mitigation is that events have caught the Muslim Brotherhood by surprise as well. It is a fast moving picture. The Tunisian interim Prime Minister is a member of the old regime, as, of course, is Vice-President Suleiman of Egypt, who seeks to negotiate with the popular representatives. I am reminded that revolutions are poetry and governing is prose. When we move from the unifying demand of the removal of President Mubarak, one is likely to see a division in the square between the absolutists who brook no compromise and the pragmatists, who will, we hope, ultimately triumph and will be met with cries of treachery from some in the crowd.

What has changed in the Middle East? One thing which has clearly changed is the fear felt of rulers by the ruled. Your Lordships will recall when Ceausescu appeared on the balcony in Bucharest and was hissed at by the crowd. There was almost a Ceausescu moment when the rulers tried to order the people in Tahrir Square and were met with indifference and opposition. The situation will never be the same again for the rulers of other Arab states and all autocrats in the region will sleep less easily—“uneasy lies the head”.

The future is uncertain. Some pessimists see parallels with what happened with the Jacobins in 1789 and with the Bolsheviks in 1917, and the danger of a well organised group taking control—again, new presbyter may become old priest writ large. However, many signs of hope are evident and are being broadcast by the new media and new means of communication. What has not changed are the challenges posed by democracy and the fact that the states in the Middle East are all ranked very low indeed in the EIU democracy index, which means that institutions in those countries have to be developed almost from scratch.

Equally, the economic and demographic factors have not changed. Successive UNDP reports on human development in the Arab world, as previous speakers pointed out, show the problems of governance, the underachievement in the Arab world, the unwillingness often to face reality, and the scapegoatism which states that the fault is not in ourselves but in our stars, the United States or Zionism. Expectations are high, yet there is high unemployment throughout the region and a young population. Roughly 50 per cent of the population of most countries in the region is under 25. How can one possibly meet the demands for improved education, housing and health after the turbulence of transition, which is likely to deter much foreign direct investment, and when global food prices are increasing inexorably? There is a clear danger of disillusion if new Governments do not deliver.

Those challenges of meeting the aspirations of an impoverished and very young population will have to be faced. What will be the result? For some, the choice is either 1979 Iran and the rule of the mullahs or, far more to be desired, 1989 and the year of revolutions in eastern and central Europe. My hope lies in the precedent and model of Turkey. The noble Lord, Lord Luce, was the only person to make this point. Turkey is a functioning democracy where the Islamic party, the AKP, works within a secular constitution. My noble friend Lord Desai mentioned the unravelling of the Ottoman Empire. Turkey historically has had an enormous influence in the region, and Prime Minister Erdogan has gained much credibility in the Arab street and has so far made all the right noises.

Turning to the relevance for the region, we could profitably examine the effects from Syria to the Gulf and beyond. The Arab street will clearly influence Governments, and perhaps lead movements towards Sharia law and to a much harder line to Israel and the Middle East peace processes. The rejectionists will probably be emboldened, and Iran of course has exulted in what has happened, although it may well face turbulence in its own streets.

There have been protests in the West Bank against Abu Mazen, and the Fatah old guard is under pressure. History may show that the Netanyahu Government missed a major opportunity. I recall discussing the issue with a former Kadima Cabinet Minister who said to Prime Minister Netanyahu on the eve of his accession to power, “You know it took us in Kadima four years to recognise the realities of what we should do with regard to the Palestinians”. Of course, there was the deathbed repentance of Barak before he lost power. The former Cabinet Minister said to Netanyahu, “Will it take you another wasted four years before you come to that same realisation?”. Perhaps WikiLeaks has revealed the concessions that the pragmatic Palestinian leadership was able to and prepared to make, but obdurate Israel was blocked by coalition sclerosis. Instead of an agreed settlement on the basis of two states there is more uncertainty, and Israel is likely to lose the security of its southern border with Egypt and possibly that of its border with Jordan.

I accept much of the Foreign Secretary’s criticism of Israel, but I wish that he had shown greater sensitivity to its problems. I hope, incidentally, that the Government will soon announce a change in the universal jurisdiction that prevents many Israeli politicians who could play a leading role in peace talks from visiting this country. That is long overdue.

I approve of the EU Council statement about the waste of taxpayers’ money on the autocracy in Egypt, but there should have been positive as well as negative conditionality. What has been the EU and US response? I understand the hesitation, because of the clash between values and interests. The starting point must be humility and recognition of limitations. However, the EU—as the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, pointed out—has vast experience of soft power, with programmes to assist countries on its periphery, and there is also the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. DfID may have to alter its priorities and invest more in Governments in the Maghreb. When I visited the Maghreb countries some years ago, I was struck by how limited our diplomatic effort there was.

As an aside, I recall when I was once in the western Sahara that my host at lunch left suddenly when his watch alarm went off. I asked why he had set it so and he answered that it was because the 1 pm news on the BBC World Service was starting: then he ran out to hear it. I echo the view of other noble Lords that we should look again at the cuts to the World Service.

What happens on the southern shore of the Mediterranean is relevant to us all. The Barcelona process of 1975 is dead. Euromed has met some of the same obstacles. Surely it is time for new initiatives in a new context. The Arab countries may now be more ready to give a positive response. The first response, as the Foreign Secretary has said, will be to the appeal of the Prime Minister of Tunisia. On the question of schemes of co-operation, I say yes to the Westminster Foundation, to the British Council, to good investment and to reconciling our interests and values and engaging across the board in a spirit of co-operation, particularly with the substructure or corps intermédiare—the non-governmental organisations. There are surely new possibilities for co-operation and we can, albeit in a new spirit, influence the region positively. I sometimes think that it is equivalent to the United States and Mexico, although the Mediterranean is deeper than the Rio Grande. It is vital to us in terms of energy, migration and general stability. It is a great challenge for us, for the United States, for our EU partners and, most of all, for the people of the region.