Health Protection (Coronavirus) (Restrictions) (England) (No. 4) Regulations 2020

Lord Alderdice Excerpts

Wednesday 4th November 2020 Lords Chamber

[Lord Trevethin and Oaksey (CB) [V]]

My Lords, it is a pleasure to follow the noble Baroness. These regulations place everyone in the country under a form of qualified house arrest. The freedom to travel, to go into a friend’s house, to play sport, to go to the pub—all taken away. Lord Sumption was obviously right when he described this in his recent lecture as

“the most significant interference with personal freedom in the history of our country.”

Those who are the most affected are the young and active. The bill—billions and billions of pounds—is not an illusion. Who is going to pay that bill? Generally speaking, it will not be those who directly benefit from the lockdown. It will be paid by the economically active and the young, who for the most part are at no real risk, along with their children and perhaps their children’s children.

Is the Government’s decision a good one? I have no idea and I certainly do not envy the decision-takers. There are many unknowns. However, it seems that the country—in particular the young, who are being ordered to give up anything resembling a normal life when they themselves are not at risk—is entitled to expect certain things. The first is that decision is taken in a properly objective and rational way. There is an obvious danger in the so-called “sunk costs” fallacy which occurs when a decision to take a future course of action is justified by reference to costs already incurred rather than the merits and demerits of the possible alternatives. There is a particular danger of a sunk cost reasoning where the decision-taker is responsible for an earlier decision whose correctness may be called into question by a change of course. Is this fallacy operating here? It is troubling to hear one of the decision-takers say recently, “We have travelled too far to turn back now”. That is classic sunk costs reasoning.

Secondly, we are all entitled to expect that the adverse effects of the proposed course of action are evaluated as thoroughly as its beneficial effects. Where is that evaluation? We have heard a great deal about the deaths that will be avoided by the lockdown, but almost nothing from the Government about its effect on mental health, a subject on which the noble Baroness, Lady Meyer, spoke so powerfully, on the diagnosis of other serious diseases and on our future ability to be able to afford to care for those who fall ill.

Thirdly, we are entitled to expect that the evidence presented to us as justification for these very extreme measures has been assembled and considered in a properly objective way. Graphs, forecasts, projections and so on are guesses. The guesswork may be informed, but the utility of this spuriously precise-looking material depends entirely on the underlying assumptions. You tweak the assumptions and the figures on the bottom line jerk around wildly. Anyone who has dealt with forecasting in the commercial world knows that.

The already rather notorious 4,000-deaths-a-day graph deployed in terrorem at the weekend reminded me of a different claim about a different supposed weapon of mass destruction: chemical and biological weapons ready for use within 45 minutes of an order from Saddam Hussein—we all remember that one. That war against supposed WMD did not go well. This is a very nasty and dangerous virus but, if it proves that the cure is more damaging than the disease, we will have betrayed generations.

[The Deputy Speaker (Lord Alderdice) (LD)]

The noble Baroness, Lady Stroud, has withdrawn, so I call the noble Lord, Lord Boateng.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Barwell (Con)]

My Lords, I support the regulations, although it gives me no pleasure to do so. I concede that the lockdown will damage our economy and people’s mental health and will restrict our freedoms —all the arguments that my noble friend Lord Forsyth so eloquently spelled out. I do so because the lesson from the first wave is very clear: that the consequences of not acting are worse. The countries that took quick and decisive action did not see more damage to their economies and more people out of work; they saw less damage. Countries that, like us, were late to act did not better protect their economies; they saw a sharper fall in GDP and more job losses.

My noble friend Lord Robathan said that there was uncertainty about the sums. He is quite right, but at every stage during this process, we have suffered from optimism bias. Back in February and March, we believed that we were several weeks ahead of Italy, before it became apparent that that was not the case. We came out of lockdown in May and June too quickly, failing to achieve suppression of the virus—particularly in the north of the country, which is why the pandemic has recurred there first.

We did not listen to SAGE back in September, when its advice was for a short circuit-breaker lockdown. The Prime Minister clearly did not want to adopt the policy that he is now pursuing. We were told that this was all going to be over by Christmas. Even now, some noble Lords seem to believe that what is happening in Belgium, the Czech Republic and France will somehow not happen here.

I fear that we live in an age of increasing unreason, where experts are maligned. I have a lot of sympathy with those noble Lords who have asked to see the assumptions that underpin the modelling, but others go further. My noble friend Lady Noakes said that, although she could not comment on this herself, some have said that there is a deliberate plot to curtail our civil liberties. Who would benefit from such a plot? How can what the Government are recommending to the House possibly be in their interest? It will make their job over the next few years immeasurably more difficult.

I believe that a vaccine and improvements in treatment and testing are on the way. However, lest noble Lords fear that I am suffering from the optimism bias that I have criticised in others, let me say that, if we look around the world, there are countries that, even before those developments, have achieved suppression and returned life to normal.

As I come to the end of my time, I say to the Minister that the Government need to use this period to achieve proper suppression of the virus—to get the tracing system working properly and ensure better compliance—so that, if I am wrong in my optimism about vaccine treatment and testing, we do not find ourselves in January or February back debating a potential third lockdown. This measure is the right thing to do now to protect our NHS. It is better than any alternative course of action.

[The Deputy Speaker (Lord Alderdice) (LD)]

My Lords, the noble Lords, Lord McConnell of Glenscorrodale and Lord Greaves, have withdrawn so I call the noble Earl, Lord Clancarty.

[The Earl of Clancarty (CB)]

My Lords, my first question is: what is the Government’s understanding of where in the community the virus is being transmitted most? Surely this is the evidence that should be shaping the measures being taken, including this lockdown.

I welcome the Prime Minister’s intention to mass test. However, if, as the ONS has said, Covid is rising rapidly among older schoolchildren, should not a priority during this period be to test all schoolchildren and staff, and indeed university students and staff too? Will there be an advertising campaign to accompany the Liverpool testing pilot, perhaps along the lines of getting tested being a social duty, particularly as so many people might be infectious but display no symptoms? Mandatory testing, as in Slovakia, would create an undesirable precedent in the UK but Slovakia’s project to test the whole population over two weekends is nevertheless admirable.

On Friday, I was privileged to attend one of the few live performances of Sarah Kane’s play “Crave” at the Chichester Festival Theatre before it was live-streamed. Everyone was masked and socially distanced in an airy auditorium. Lockdown is another blow to the arts when they are just starting to get back on their feet, particularly because of their considerable dependence for survival on a paying public.

However, those who continue to be most affected are the self-employed. The increase in support, at least for the lockdown period, is welcome, but a majority of the self-employed in the arts and entertainment are ineligible for support. They include the newly self-employed and those paid through dividends. Freelancers who work in the arts will not be covered by the Culture Recovery Fund. In its report Jobs, Jobs, Jobs, the Resolution Foundation identified a real issue with targeting the self-employed most in need. Have the Government looked at that report? Will they address these continuing concerns?

Lastly, I ask the Minister for clarification on what the lockdown means for private music teaching. The Minister says that the Government are prioritising education. It is vital that this teaching continues through the lockdown to nurture the next generation of musicians. I sent the Minister a note on this question this morning, so he might not have had time to see it, but there is a discrepancy between the guidance and the legislation, which clearly lists education as an exception without specifying what form that may take. Can music teachers continue to teach privately from home and visit other houses to teach? Can private music schools still operate face-to-face teaching? Can peripatetic music lessons in schools take place?

Concerns about the status of extracurricular activity within Covid-safe environments extend to art, drama and sport, as we have heard, with huge implications for mental and physical well-being, which we should not neglect, even for a month.

[The Deputy Speaker (Lord Alderdice) (LD)]

The noble Lord, Lord Lamont of Lerwick, and the noble Baronesses, Lady Clark of Kilwinning and Lady Newlove, have withdrawn so I call the noble Baroness, Lady Smith of Newnham.