Bedroom Tax (Scotland)

Debate between Lindsay Roy and Graeme Morrice

Thursday 8th May 2014 Westminster Hall

[Graeme Morrice]

rose—

[Lindsay Roy]

rose—

amendment of the law

Debate between Lindsay Roy and Graeme Morrice

Tuesday 25th March 2014 Commons Chamber

[Lindsay Roy (Glenrothes) (Lab)]

It is a pleasure to follow the hon. Member for Burton (Andrew Griffiths) and to listen to his speech on small beer.

At a time when we hear that we are turning an economic corner—I welcome this immensely—after several challenging years of recession, this year’s Budget should have been one of optimism and hope for all, and in particular for those who have suffered the most under the Government’s austerity programme. Hard-working families have suffered a cost of living crisis and seen their incomes reduced by £1,600. The disabled, the disadvantaged and those with health issues that prevent them from working have all been badly affected financially.

I welcome the reduction in unemployment, but there are still thousands upon thousands of people who desperately want to work. They have not acquired the skills to take up the posts that are available. Despite their best efforts, they cannot find a job, an apprenticeship or training. It is ludicrous that so many people are willing to work but do not have the skills and expertise to do so. In my constituency, and in many others, jobs are advertised overseas and taken up by those from overseas who have an enhanced skill profile. That is primarily because of the lack of investment in high quality training and support here. These barriers must be removed as a matter of priority, with further investment in vocational training, but yet again the Government have missed a golden opportunity to invest in their people and pump-prime a further reduction in unemployment and benefit payments.

There were token increases in the amount of income exempt from tax, but the Government’s slogan “We’re all in this together” has been further discredited by their unjust refusal to increase tax on higher earners to 50% and their failure to clamp down on the many who avoid tax, thereby robbing the Exchequer of millions of pounds. Primarily, this has been a Budget for Tory vested interests in an effort to sustain support. In other words, these are the same old Tories, some of whose policies evoke blue language on the Opposition Benches. So much for the often quoted but meaningless Tory mantra, “Those with the broadest shoulders will bear the heaviest burden.” In effect, this is the politics of mirage and fantasy. The coalition think that if something is said often enough, people will believe it. On the Labour Benches, we emphatically do not. Thankfully, those who live in the real world are not so gullible and do not share the same self-delusion. They are only too aware of the opportunities missed: replacing the failing Work programme with the job guarantee scheme, an energy freeze, expansion of free child care for working parents and help for millions of workers by reducing basic income tax further.

Like all mainstream political parties, hard-working people support a cap on welfare spending and want effective measures to be taken against the small minority who are fit to work, but who have abused the welfare system and want to live permanently on benefits. However, hard-working people are also only too aware of the gross injustices forced on one section of our society in particular. The hallmark of a civilised society is how we treat our poor, disadvantaged and disabled. This Government have continuously presided over massive failures in policy development and implementation.

[Graeme Morrice (Livingston) (Lab)]

Does my hon. Friend share my concern and horror at the escalation in the number of sanctions made by Jobcentre Plus which, on appeal, have been found to be erroneous?

[Lindsay Roy]

My hon. Friend makes a very important point. In my office, we deal with 12 such cases every week, concerning Atos and sanctions.

The forcible and inhumane imposition of the bedroom tax is a real concern for us. The Prime Minister should have sent the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions back to do his homework properly, and to plan a course of action on welfare benefits on a fair, consistent and evidence-based manner. The fact that he did not demonstrates a weakness to stand up to a dogmatic Minister who has taken a callous, uncaring and brass-neck approach to implementing hurriedly a range of flawed practices that have impacted unfairly on so many of our citizens.

The Chancellor has been culpable in that he has done us a major disservice, as his Budget did absolutely nothing to address the multiple and shambolic failings of the DWP. Dogmatic intransigence and gross inefficiencies have led thousands to suffer through the application of a target-setting culture, in many cases resulting in unjust sanctions and declarations of fitness to work, despite medical evidence to the contrary. Those injustices have left many honest and upright citizens, for the first time in their lives, being forced to access food banks and payday loans and to get into debt. The numbers have grown massively. From my own constituency, I will highlight three inconsistencies and injustices, but I am sure that they are mirrored many times over in other constituencies throughout the country.

The first involved a man who had a medically certified spinal injury and was therefore unable to lift weights. That was interpreted as job avoidance, despite the fact that he had participated in the required number of job applications. He was sanctioned for 13 weeks and had to resort to the local food bank for sustenance.

The second example involved a lady who had been waiting for months for an Atos appointment. Her employment and support allowance was stopped and she was advised to claim jobseekers’ allowance. She is still waiting for an appointment. It is no wonder that she has been waiting: an informed insider told my office last month that in Scotland and north-east England there are 24,000 Atos reports waiting to be processed. When questioned by me, the director of Atos in charge of quality assurance said he did not recognise that number, but we still await a figure. So much for DWP-Atos quality assurance and standards.

The third example concerns a lady who had suffered a close family bereavement. She explained her situation, but until there was prompt intervention by my office, she was ruthlessly sanctioned. The Government have received regular exhortations to abandon the inhumane and vile imposition of the bedroom tax, and to bring fairness, compassion and dignity to DWP-Atos assessments. They have singularly failed to do so.

The ongoing injustices I have highlighted make it clear that our disadvantaged, poor and disabled are still being treated unfairly. In my main jobcentre, there are only two computer access points. Those people are often dealt with callously, but they too have the right to be treated in a respectful and dignified manner, and the DWP must recognise that. Until this happens consistently, DWP Ministers should hang their heads in shame.

Scotland’s Place in the UK

Debate between Lindsay Roy and Graeme Morrice

Thursday 6th February 2014 Commons Chamber

[Graeme Morrice]

I am grateful to my hon. Friend for that intervention. On day one of independence, were Scots to vote for it, the rest of the United Kingdom would remain within the European Union but Scotland would not, so it clearly would not benefit from the EU single market, to the great detriment of Scottish business and Scotland overall.

Mr Deputy Speaker—[Interruption.] Welcome, Madam Deputy Speaker; it is great to see a Scot in the Chair this afternoon. [Interruption.] And a woman, my hon. Friend the Member for East Lothian (Fiona O'Donnell) reminds me.

In addition to the shared opportunities, the pooling of resources across the UK allows risk as well as reward to be spread, as seen most notably in the bail-out of the Scottish-based banks during the financial crisis, when the UK, led by a Scot, injected an amount of capital into the banks well in excess of the Scottish Government’s total budget. The pooling of resources also allows for distribution on the basis of social need across the welfare state. Were Scotland outwith the UK, that would place a major question mark over its ability to continue to fund benefits at current levels and to meet state and public sector pension commitments.

Of course, Scotland has its own devolved Parliament, with significantly more powers to come as a result of the Calman commission and the Scotland Act 2012. It can therefore be argued that Scotland has the best of both worlds: local decision making, but under the financial umbrella of the UK Barnett formula, giving Scots more funding per capita than anywhere else in the UK.

[Lindsay Roy (Glenrothes) (Lab)]

I thank my hon. Friend for giving way and for making a very positive case. Will he remind the House why the Barnett formula was introduced and why the additional funding per capita goes to Scots in what is a relatively small country?

[Graeme Morrice]

Scotland benefits disproportionately from the Barnett formula to the tune of £1,400 per capita because of rurality, super sparsity and Scotland’s particular needs, so my hon. Friend’s point is well made.

Since 2011 we have been told that the answer to every question the Scottish people have ever asked about independence would be in the Scottish Government’s White Paper. Given Alex Salmond’s recent statements, I was half expecting next week’s lottery numbers to appear in its pages, too. The Scottish people were promised the New Testament but instead had to settle for the SNP’s next election manifesto. The truth is that Alex Salmond simply cannot guarantee many of the White Paper’s promises and has completely failed to answer many of the legitimate questions that have been asked of the yes campaign. The Scottish Government could deliver more with the powers they already have, but they choose partisan dividing lines, rather than improving the lives of the Scottish people.

On 18 September the Scottish people will have a choice: either to support the continuation of Scotland within the UK, and all the advantages and benefits that involves, with a further strengthening of devolution; or to take a leap into the unknown, never to return.

Unemployment in Scotland

Debate between Lindsay Roy and Graeme Morrice

Wednesday 5th December 2012 Westminster Hall

[Graeme Morrice (Livingston) (Lab)]

It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Ms Dorries, and it is good to see you back out of the jungle. I welcome the opportunity to speak in this important debate, and I congratulate my hon. Friend the Member for West Dunbartonshire (Gemma Doyle) on securing it.

This debate is being held on the day that the Chancellor of the Exchequer delivers his autumn statement, which will highlight the true scale of his poor performance in the period of high unemployment, weak growth, rising borrowing and declining wages that is gripping the nation. Even the outgoing Governor of the Bank of England has warned that the UK faces a

“rather unappealing combination of a subdued recovery, with inflation remaining above target for a while”.

The latest quarterly inflation report indicates that the UK could be stuck in a low-growth environment, with economic problems in the eurozone and the rest of the world continuing to have an impact.

The Ernst and Young ITEM Club report published on Monday states that Scotland’s overall output decline of 4% over the past four years puts it on a par with the troubled Spanish economy, and that Scotland’s economy is unlikely fully to recover until 2016. This year will be the third out of five in which the Scottish economy has shrunk. The report also predicts growth of just 0.7% next year, which was “well below normal” and lower than the expected UK figure. It estimates that 60,000 jobs will be shed in the Scottish public sector between the start of the 2008 financial crisis and the end of its forecast in 2015.

[Lindsay Roy (Glenrothes) (Lab)]

It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Ms Dorries.

Is my hon. Friend aware that the local government in Fife is investing £5 million in creating modern apprenticeships, which is an extension of the jobs fund?

[Graeme Morrice]

Yes, and I welcome that initiative by Labour-led Fife council. Others that have been mentioned—initiated by Labour-led local authorities in Scotland—are clearly to be welcomed.

The matters I was referring to represent yet more miserable news for Scotland, and underline the need to address business growth and harness the job-creation potential of our small and medium-sized businesses as a top priority. It is a cause of concern that the Scottish unemployment rate is 8.1%, which is higher than that of the UK. Some 218,000 people are now out of work in Scotland. The UK and Scottish Governments must share responsibility for those continually disappointing figures. As a result of their decisions, this is a really bad time for families who are worried about their jobs and their children’s futures, and are struggling with higher food prices and energy bills.

In my constituency, long-term unemployment rose by 380% in the past year, which is the worst figure since the general election. That is truly depressing news for young people and women, and for the 1,700 workers who are losing their jobs at the Hall’s of Broxburn meat processing plant and for the 50 employees at Vion’s headquarters in Livingston. People in Scotland are not only falling victim to the failed policies of this bungling Tory-led and Lib Dem coalition in Westminster, but are suffering from the Scottish National party’s inaction and incompetence in Holyrood. I notice that the hon. Member for Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Mr MacNeil) has just left.

The coalition Government are running out of excuses. Their flagship welfare-to-work programme has failed to get people into proper jobs. Under the Work programme, firms and charities are paid to find jobs for the long-term unemployed, but as my hon. Friend the Member for West Dunbartonshire said, only 3.8%—four in every 100— of Scottish people on the programme succeeded in gaining a job for six months or more, which is well below target.

Scotland and the Union

Debate between Lindsay Roy and Graeme Morrice

Thursday 29th November 2012 Commons Chamber

[Graeme Morrice]

I certainly concur with my right hon. Friend on that point.

In addition to the shared opportunities, the pooling of resources across the UK allows risk as well as reward to be spread, as seen most notably in the bail-out of the Scottish-based banks during the financial crisis, when the UK, led by a Scot, injected £37 billion of capital into the banks—an amount in excess of the total budget of the Scottish Government.

The legal framework for business is more or less uniform across the entirety of the UK. That means that there is a similar taxation, regulatory and employment law regime throughout the UK. On the benefit of a single market both to Scotland and to the rest of the UK, the director general of the CBI has stated that the

“raft of common laws and regulations...make operating across the different constituent parts of the union more efficient.”

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research has noted that the Scottish economy is

“more integrated with the rest of the UK than Europe or the rest of the world.”

With regard to jobs, people on both sides of the border benefit from employment opportunities engendered by Scotland being part of the Union. The UK Government are a major employer in Scotland, with more than 30,000 civil servants bringing almost £700 million annually to Scotland in salaries alone. Thousands of jobs also rely on the defence sector in Scotland, with 40,000 people employed in more than 800 companies. Companies from the rest of the UK contribute about one fifth of private sector economic activity in Scotland.

On energy, North sea oil is an important contributor to the UK economy, accounting for thousands of jobs in the north-east of Scotland, and a valuable source of revenue for the UK Treasury. However, the supply is declining and unstable. Recent reports show that North sea oil production fell by 30% in 2011 compared with the previous year. For the past 18 years, the level of public spending in Scotland has dwarfed the total revenue from North sea oil; in 2009-10, the difference was £18 billion. In fact, welfare spending in Scotland in 2010 was three times higher than North sea oil revenue. Of course, oil and gas remain an important part of the Scottish and UK economies and will do so in the years to come, but to bet Scotland’s economic future on this sector, as the Scottish National party does, is naive at best and foolhardy at worst. Moreover, Scotland being outwith the UK would create uncertainty for the future of Scotland’s renewables industry, and potentially lead to higher fuel bills and a £2 billion burden on Scottish businesses, due to Scotland receiving a disproportionate share of the available subsidy compared with the rest of the UK. These figures highlight the many benefits of Scotland being part of the UK economy in that we are able to work together in partnership to share the risks and rewards involved in harnessing our energy resources.

Scotland being part of the UK also allows us to pool our resources and distribute them on the basis of social need across the welfare state. If it were outwith the UK, that would place a major question mark over its ability to continue to fund benefits at current levels and to meet state and public sector pension commitments. It is simply an illusion for the SNP to promise Scandinavian levels of welfare spending while supporting Irish levels of taxation.

There are many other positives on which I could elaborate, such as the flexibility across borders which has over the years benefited people on both sides and led to high levels of migration in both directions; indeed, I personally have been a beneficiary of that. Our common currency is one of the oldest monetary unions in the world. A practical and more recent example is the benefit derived by Scottish athletes from UK sports funding, facilities and coaching in the run-up to the Olympics and Paralympics. It is interesting to note that all but three of the Scots who won medals at the Olympics had team-mates from the rest of the UK.

[Lindsay Roy (Glenrothes) (Lab)]

Is my hon. Friend aware that three Scots Olympians have been nominated for the BBC sports personality of the year award?

[Graeme Morrice]

Indeed I am. All three—Sir Chris Hoy, Andy Murray and Katherine Grainger—train and reside in England and clearly benefit from Scotland being part of the United Kingdom. Of course, we pay tribute to those athletes as part of Team GB and wish them every success in the BBC sports personality of the year award. [Interruption.] Indeed, they cannot all win, but we would like to see them do so.

There is much more I could say about the benefits to Scotland and the rest of the UK of Scotland remaining a strong partner within the Union. I am sure that other Members will fill any gaps in my speech and expand on some of the points I have made. I conclude by mentioning one of Scotland’s and the UK’s most notable achievements in its 300-year history—devolution. Devolution has been a great success and has provided new vigour to the United Kingdom. Whether in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland, devolution is working but also developing, as it will continue to do in future. As we are all well aware, support for devolution and attachment to the UK in Scotland is stronger than support for independence. Scots share the same social attitudes and values as people in the rest of the UK. They are just as alert to the risks and uncertainties of separation and have a real comprehension of the benefits and advantages of remaining part of the UK. Therefore, all things considered, there is no doubt that we are all better off together.

Scottish Separation

Debate between Lindsay Roy and Graeme Morrice

Tuesday 10th July 2012 Westminster Hall

[Graeme Morrice (Livingston) (Lab)]

It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Sir Roger. I am delighted that I have been able to secure this Westminster Hall debate on a vital issue to the future of Scotland and its people, in view of the pending referendum.

Before I move to the substantive part of my contribution, I should like to say a few words about the referendum campaign so far. I congratulate those responsible on the recent launch of the cross-party Better Together campaign, which will lead the debate on the positive economic and social case for Scotland’s remaining an integral part of the United Kingdom. In stark contrast to the vacuous and celebrity-driven launch a few weeks earlier of the campaign by those who advocate separation, the Better Together launch, ably fronted by my right hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh South West (Mr Darling), drew on the experiences of real Scots the length and breadth of the country who spoke passionately about why they believe we are stronger within the UK. This grounded campaign is based on hard facts and figures, exploring the many positive benefits of being part of the UK and exposing the deficiencies in the separatist plan to end this highly successful political, social and economic union.

On the other side of the debate, the Scottish National party and the Trotskyist fringe parties had, somewhat predictably, fallen out among themselves even before Alan Cumming had had time to board the plane to return to his New York home. The splits quickly became even wider when the recently appointed head of the so-called yes campaign ruled out a second referendum question on devo-max, an option Alex Salmond and the SNP are desperately clinging to as they face up to the fact that they cannot win the first question. Even the well-respected senior Scottish nationalist, Margo Macdonald, called at the weekend for a single, simple question on separation and criticised the yes campaign for refusing to spell out the details of what independence would mean.

[Lindsay Roy (Glenrothes) (Lab)]

It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Sir Roger. I congratulate my hon. Friend the Member for Livingston (Graeme Morrice) on securing this vital debate. Can he explain why he believes that a referendum should be based around a single question? What are the problems with multi-option referendums?

[Graeme Morrice]

I am grateful to my hon. Friend for his intervention. As I continue with my contribution, I will come to that point and develop an argument accordingly.

According to reports yesterday, it now looks like the Greens could soon follow Margo Macdonald’s lead, potentially leaving the SNP in the ludicrous position of being the only party supporting a multi-question referendum on the issue that it has spent its entire existence campaigning for.

--- Later in debate ---

[Graeme Morrice]

I am coming on to the meat of the debate. The hon. Gentleman doth protest too much.

I shall now move on to the meat of this morning’s debate—the economic consequences of Scottish separation. Some Scots regard the potential economic consequences of breaking away from the UK as neither here nor there. So important to them is the dogma of Scotland going its own way that even if every shred of available evidence demonstrated beyond any doubt whatever that Scotland would be worse off outside the UK, they would still not hesitate to break up Britain. To most Scots, that stance—call it the “Braveheart” factor, or whatever—is simply not credible. Although the debate is and should be about more than economics, there is little doubt that at its crux are the economic consequences of separation. The vast majority of our fellow citizens are interested in what will improve their lives and those of their families and the communities in which they live.

It is hard to deny that, in these turbulent economic times, the size, strength and stability of the UK economy gives Scotland’s businesses a huge advantage over their competitors on the continent and elsewhere. Scotland’s biggest market is the rest of the UK and it has undoubtedly benefited from being an integral part of the world’s oldest and most successful single market. I believe that most people in Scotland already recognise and embrace this. A survey conducted by the Scottish social attitudes survey at the end of last year showed that fewer than one in three Scots back separation, which was roughly the same figure as in 2005. Hon. Members will also have noted the results of the latest opinion poll on separation, conducted by TNS BMRB after both campaign launches, which puts those opposed to separation on 50% and those in favour on just 30%. The latter figure is the lowest received in favour of separation in five years of surveys by the Edinburgh-based pollster and means that in just six months a deficit of nine points for those backing separation has more than doubled. Judging by these figures, even the most ardent nationalist would struggle to argue that the yes campaign had got off to a good start.

Putting opinion polls aside and accepting the premise that, to coin the well-known phrase from American politics, “it’s the economy, stupid” that will determine the outcome of the referendum, let us turn to the available evidence on the key economic questions. Some of the most interesting expert contributions to the debate so far have come from Professor John Kay, a former economic adviser to Alex Salmond. Writing for The Scotsman shortly after the Scottish Parliament elections in May last year, Professor Kay said:

“Independence, if achieved, would bring complications—both political and economic. The reality is that Scotland would gain little by full independence. In the modern world, economic sovereignty for small nations is inescapably limited, and political sovereignty is largely symbolic.”

More recently, while speaking at The Scotsman’s “Economics of Independence” conference, Professor Kay spoke of his belief that Scotland faces five years of economic uncertainty if it opts to separate from the UK.

The potential economic damage ensuing from a long period of transition to a separate Scotland was highlighted at the same conference by oil expert Professor Alex Kemp of Aberdeen university. Professor Kemp said that the complex process of transferring responsibilities from UK Departments to a separatist Scottish Government would involve

“negotiations extending over a considerable time”.

Such fears about the potential impact of a vote for separation, and the instability and uncertainty inflicted on Scotland’s economy, have been voiced by many other academic and business leaders over the past few months. Even one of the SNP’s highest-profile supporters and financial backers, the highly successful businessman Sir Tom Farmer, does not support its separation plans. He stated in a recent BBC interview:

“I’ve never seen or heard anything yet that’s convinced me independence is the right way forward for Scotland. It’s not just about money, but, if it ended up that the country was going to be in dire poverty because of independence, I don’t think anybody wants that.”

For my part, I have drawn on the best available evidence for the likeliest economic impact on Scotland of separating from the UK. I want to focus on three aspects of the economic debate: oil and gas revenues; the share of the UK’s public debt that Scotland would assume if it were to separate from the UK; and a separate currency in Scotland.

Those three vital economic and financial questions were among several highlighted in the excellent Select Committee on Scottish Affairs report on “The Referendum on Separation for Scotland: Unanswered Questions”, published in February this year. I take the opportunity to pay tribute to the Committee’s excellent work. Under the skilled chairmanship of my hon. Friend the Member for Glasgow South West (Mr Davidson), it has embarked on a forensic investigation of the many unanswered questions that hang over the separation debate. My hon. Friend and his colleagues—I see one present today—deserve the thanks of all Members of this House for the detailed and meticulous way in which they are examining so many important points worthy of further detailed consideration, not least the economic matters on which I will now focus.

[Lindsay Roy]

Of the many unanswered questions, which one gives my hon. Friend the greatest cause for concern?

[Graeme Morrice]

That question begs the question: many questions give me concern—not least, defence.

I now move on to North sea oil, which has long been regarded by the supporters of separation as the jewel in the crown of a Scotland outwith the UK. The Library standard note on “Scotland’s economy: current situation and issues related to independence”, published in April this year, highlights three key issues when considering this critical question—the division of the UK continental shelf and, therefore, of the oil reserves; future production levels; and the price of oil.

The argument has always been that a separate Scotland should be due the lion’s share of the North sea’s oil, and that the tax revenue from the fields would therefore accrue to Scotland. The suggestion that a separate Scotland would be due most of the North sea’s oilfields, however, is very much open to debate, and most experts agree that nothing concrete could be concluded before the negotiations on separation. Furthermore, the boundary issue aside, the reality is that oil and gas can simply no longer be relied upon in the way that the SNP has always suggested, because of the production and price questions.

Fossil fuels are a declining resource, and the trend of reduced production is now clear. Oil and gas production is falling rapidly; in 2011 it was down by 19% on the previous year, and recent Department of Energy and Climate Change figures show that oil production fell by 13% in the first quarter of this year and gas production by 14%. Future projections suggest that many North sea fields will have ceased production by the 2020s, while the cost of extraction is increasing year on year.

Oil also has a history of price volatility. The Library note shows that it has varied in recent years from a low of nearly $9 a barrel in November 1998 to a peak of almost $150 a barrel in July 2008. The price of oil is closely linked to production, with a low oil price making it less economical to invest in hydrocarbon extraction. In terms of tax revenues from oil, the 2008 Kemp and Stephen paper referenced in the Library note stated:

“It should be stressed that the projections of tax revenues are subject to much uncertainty. Thus oil prices have been very volatile and this should remain the case over the next few years.”

Oil and gas of course remain an important part of the Scottish and UK economies, and will do so for many years, but to bet Scotland’s economic future on the sector is naive at best and foolhardy at worst. Those latest figures highlight the importance of a balanced economy that is not over-reliant on one industry. They also demonstrate one of the many benefits of Scotland being part of the UK economy: we are able to work together in partnership to share the risks and rewards involved in harnessing our energy resources.

High Speed 2 (Scotland)

Debate between Lindsay Roy and Graeme Morrice

Wednesday 18th April 2012 Westminster Hall

[Graeme Morrice (Livingston) (Lab)]

I congratulate my hon. Friend on securing this important debate. I agree that extending high-speed rail to Scotland is central and not peripheral. Indeed, I have made similar comments in the House. It is a UK project, and we are in a United Kingdom, so we have the critical mass to ensure that we can deliver it and that it reaches into Scotland to Edinburgh and Glasgow. Does he share my fear that if we ever faced the prospect of Scotland being separated, this UK project would not happen, and we in Scotland could lose out?

[Lindsay Roy]

My hon. Friend anticipates part of my argument. I will cover that later.

Turning to public sector infrastructure, there has been criticism about Scotland being overdependent on the public sector. Surely a high-speed link to Scotland would enhance the opportunities for the private sector and provide a greater balance within the economy. In essence, if we want to shape the future, we must create it. There is certainly unanimity in Scotland that high-speed rail that reaches the parts that others cannot reach must be a priority—I believe that is called the Heineken factor.

When the Government announced that HS2 would go ahead, a commitment was given to work with the Scottish Government and others on how to improve capacity between north and south. There is overwhelming consensus for HSR in Scotland across the political spectrum, including transport bodies, local, national and multinational businesses, civic society, trade unions and environmental groups. That unity of spirit and purpose stems from clarity about the perceived benefits.

Fundamentally, high-speed rail will bring three dividends to Scotland. First, there is capacity: as well as providing new services for passengers, it will free up space on traditional lines for freight and local passenger trains, reducing delays and congestion. Increased pressure on capacity is already impacting on service reliability and punctuality. Despite the welcome improvements that might be made, there will not be radical improvement on the existing framework. Secondly, high-speed rail would offer huge environmental benefits, because the modal shift from air to rail will dramatically reduce carbon emissions. It would also ensure adequate air slots for planes from the more peripheral parts of the UK, at a time when our airports are experiencing further congestion. In written evidence to the Transport Committee, Transport Scotland and Network Rail stated, significantly, that

“our evidence indicates that the extension of HSR to Scotland would significantly improve the benefit to costs ratio.”

There therefore appear to be huge dividends for the UK as a whole, and a high-speed rail link would also reduce our unhealthy overdependence on oil fuelled transport—a welcome strategic shift that would reduce relative transport costs.

Thirdly, HSR would contribute significantly to stimulating Scotland’s economy and promoting new business growth and regeneration. It would attract inward investment to Scotland, stimulate industry and be a further catalyst to tourism. The central belt contains more than 3.5 million people, a population similar in magnitude to that of the west midlands and Manchester. High-speed connectivity with other major population centres in the UK will be vital to sustain economic activity and promote growth.

Edinburgh is the second most popular destination for tourists from overseas after London, and it hosts a vibrant financial services sector that is the seventh most competitive in Europe. The area is home to a wide array of innovative companies that are investing in research and new technologies such as biotechnology, electronics and renewables. The economy of the Glasgow region accounts for 36% of Scottish exports. Glasgow is the second most popular city in the UK for inward investment, and contains the second largest retail sector. It retains a strong manufacturing base in aerospace, defence and marine industries, and accounts for one in three jobs in the tourism, food and drink and construction sectors.

High-speed rail could play a vital role in making innovative developments in Scotland and ensuring that we champion the business opportunities that we could expect within a new framework. Evidence clearly indicates that the case for high-speed rail in the UK is stronger when Scotland is included. The Scottish Partnership Group, which has representatives from across business, trade unions and the transport industry, reinforces the economic dividends. Iain McMillan from CBI Scotland notes the positive business case for ensuring Scotland’s inclusion in HSR:

“Good transport links and external connectivity to principal markets are vital to Scotland’s economic success. We are encouraged by the report’s focus on ensuring the development of this key infrastructure project, conscious of Scotland’s physical position on the periphery of Europe and the greater consequential need to provide key links to hubs and markets.”

Colin Borland from the Federation of Small Businesses indicates that

“productivity will increase and it will help Scottish businesses to compete.”

Liz Cameron from the Scottish chamber of commerce emphasises that

“we must be beneficiaries, not victims of HSR.”

A host of highly respected companies have added their unqualified support to the extension of HSR to the central belt. They include Dell, Siemens, Barclays and Sistemic, to name but a few. Some 75% of businesses that were recently canvassed were strongly in support of the extension of HS2 to Scotland.

High-speed rail would bring huge economic and environmental benefits to Scotland and the UK, but although there is a strong consensus on the need for HSR, there is, regrettably, huge uncertainty about the future of such a rail link to Scotland. There has been some support for the idea of starting a high-speed link from Scotland at the same time as building from London as a sign of good faith and commitment, but there is a major stumbling block because if Scotland voted for separation, HSR would surely remain on the drawing board. Even if an independent Scotland were to find the resources to finance HSR from Edinburgh or Glasgow to the border, who would pay for the high-speed link from Manchester to Carlisle and beyond? There would be no economic imperative for the UK taxpayer, and no political incentive for UK MPs to extend HS2 beyond Manchester.