Office for Budget Responsibility

John Pugh Excerpts

Monday 14th June 2010 Commons Chamber

[Dr John Pugh (Southport) (LD)]

May I welcome you to your role, Mr Deputy Speaker?

According to the House of Commons Library, the Treasury has, in the past 10 years, been at least as good at accurately forecasting growth as independent forecasters. The background work on the new projections has actually been done by a secretariat provided by the Treasury, and according to Sir Alan, the changes are

“within the normal range of uncertainty”.

Therefore, in all honesty, ought we to regard the new independent forecast as a simple downgrade of Treasury forecasts, and avoid unnecessary point scoring on what is a matter for the whole nation?

[Mr Osborne]

I am always against unnecessary point scoring. I say this to my hon. Friend: I think the new process is a big departure in how Budgets are put together. It is worth reflecting for a moment on what I did in this statement. I have read out what would normally be the first part of the Budget. Everyone now knows the forecasts and the assumptions behind them. He says that the forecasts were produced with the help of Treasury people, but Sir Alan Budd is an enormously respected independent person, and I do not think his independence can be questioned. We now have a set of accurate national accounts. Indeed, when the OBR is on a statutory footing, I want it to do more work on the true state of the national accounts, with regard to private finance initiative liabilities and the like. The big difference is that I must now fit the Budget to the figures, rather than fit the figures to the Budget.