Oral Answers to Questions

Debate between John Lamont and Stephen Timms

Monday 12th October 2026 Commons Chamber

[Sir Stephen Timms]

The hon. Gentleman is absolutely right, and I am pleased to be able to confirm to him that self-employed parents are explicitly covered in the terms of reference of the current review.

[John Lamont (Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk) (Con)]

4. What estimate he has made of what the total welfare budget will be at the end of this Parliament.

[The Minister for Social Security and Disability (Sir Stephen Timms)]

In March, the Office for Budget Responsibility published its official forecast, predicting that at the end of the current Parliament, in 2029-30, UK welfare spending will be about £390 billion. The OBR will update that forecast in the Budget, which will take place on Wednesday fortnight.

[John Lamont]

The Minister has just confirmed that the benefits bill will continue to grow. He also seems to have confirmed the Prime Minister’s position that national security

“cannot come at the expense of social security.”—[Official Report, 9 September 2026; Vol. 790, c. 1036.]

Is that correct?

[Sir Stephen Timms]

The hon. Member will be relieved to know that spending on working-age adults’ and children’s welfare is forecast to be 4.9% of GDP at the end of the current Parliament, as it is now. Overall welfare spending is forecast to rise by less than half as much in this Parliament as in the last, by just over 0.3 percentage points by 2030-31 compared with 0.7 percentage points in the last Parliament. This Government are putting right the problems that they inherited.

Oral Answers to Questions

Debate between John Lamont and Stephen Timms

Monday 1st September 2025 Commons Chamber

[John Lamont (Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk) (Con)]

4. What estimate she has made of the level of spending on health and disability benefits by 2030.

[The Minister for Social Security and Disability (Sir Stephen Timms)]

The Office for Budget Responsibility forecast in March that incapacity and disability benefits spending would be £90.7 billion in 2029-30. That figure will be updated at the Budget. Better employment support and removing perverse work incentives in universal credit are the key to getting more people into work.

[John Lamont]

Just two months ago, the Secretary of State was left humiliated after being forced to significantly water down her botched welfare Bill. If the Government had pressed ahead with the Bill as originally drafted, how much less would taxpayers be spending on benefits by 2030?

[Sir Stephen Timms]

As I have said, the OBR will update its forecast at the time of the Budget. We inherited a terrible situation, with record numbers of economically inactive people. Economic inactivity is down since the election, and employment is up. Those developments have been encouraging, but our reforms will go much further. The £3.8 billion that we are investing in employment support for people out of work on health and disability grounds—the biggest package ever—will be key.