Artificial Intelligence

Debate between Jim Shannon and Nick Fletcher

Wednesday 20th October 2021 Westminster Hall

[Nick Fletcher (Don Valley) (Con)]

I beg to move,

That this House has considered the future impact of artificial intelligence on the economy and society.

It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Mr Davies. I called for this debate because artificial intelligence will very soon affect every aspect of our lives. The past demonstrates that everyone will willingly allow this to happen—just look at the rise of the internet algorithm. We willingly hand over our data, enabling service providers to produce complex algorithms that sell us more products and get us to click on specific websites. The question cannot be whether we stop the rise of AI; it should be whether it can be effectively regulated. Naturally, I was pleased that the Government published their national AI strategy last month, which at least began the conversation about how we can manage this technology so that it benefits our economy, workforce and society.

Let me give some examples, starting with the driverless car. We must realise that it will probably not be long before insurance companies acknowledge that fewer accidents will occur than in man-driven vehicles. Furthermore, research suggests that advances in technology will enable X-rays directed by AI to diagnose cancer far more quickly and far more accurately than the best of our consultants.

While some of these technologies may seem far off, they have already taken over many unskilled low-paid jobs. After all, it was not that long ago that we ordered McDonald’s coffee in person. Then, one day we were met with a giant screen. Personally, knowing full well the implications of that over time, I deliberately went to the counter and ordered my coffee in person to protect people’s jobs. I did so until one day when the counter was not manned and a nice lady stood next to the giant iPad and said, “Come on. Use this.” Now, every time I go to McDonald’s, I use the giant screen. The nice lady has gone. That is the crux of the issue. AI technology is often introduced to aid the pre-existing workforce. Yet, just like McDonald’s, managers eventually realise that their workforce can be replaced wholesale, and the AI technology is what is left—doing what humans were doing, but doing it better.

Let us take another example: mowing the lawn. While many people find gardening a chore, our desire to keep pristine gardens means that the gardening and landscape business can employ 160,000 people. Yet, as those people retire they are likely to be replaced by artificial intelligence technology as it becomes more capable, because employers will not be liable to provide sickness pay or holidays. AI can cut grass; how long before it can cut hedges and pick soft fruits?

Throughout covid, we have seen the classroom change too. Am I saying that we should remove the teacher? Of course not, but with the rise of AI will we always need teaching assistants, administrative staff or examination boards? I do not know the answer, but it is essential that we start asking these questions.

[Jim Shannon (Strangford) (DUP)]

It is important to have a debate on this subject and Westminster Hall is a great place to have it. UK GDP could be up to 10.3% higher by 2030 because of artificial intelligence and its impacts from consumption-side product enhancements, and more importantly as a result of widening consumer choice and making available more affordable bespoke goods. Does the hon. Gentleman agree that it is time that the Government, especially the Minister, backed the AI brokers by ensuring that there is a skilled workforce? There is a workforce to be formed out of AI, and that is what we should be focusing on.

[Nick Fletcher]

I thank the hon. Member for that intervention and I will come on to exactly those points later.

I do not think that a red wall Conservative can ever make a speech without mentioning Brexit and trade deals. In light of Brexit, AI will probably be more utilised than ever before to move goods across borders. In warfare, too, the rise of drones to maintain and expand our geopolitical influence is already apparent, yet drone technology is already being used in combination with AI and we see armies across the world, from France to Russia, using AI-controlled drones in conflicts.

Let me reflect briefly on the Departments that could be affected by the examples that I have given: Transport; Health; Work and Pensions; the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy; Education; the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs; the Department for International Trade; and the Treasury. It is quite a list. So, what is the problem? Well, it is what I want to highlight today, so that, as parliamentarians and as a Government, we can start to have a frank and honest discussion on this issue.

First and perhaps most worryingly, the rise of AI technology is likely to decimate people’s jobs. I have heard it said, “Well, people have threatened that before,” and looking at the unemployment figures we see that Britain had some of the lowest unemployment figures ever before the pandemic. However, this new AI revolution will be different from the industrial revolution when it comes to employment.

As a result of the massive expansion of AI in many sectors, AI will affect many people’s lives and pretty much every job sector. AI will infiltrate everything, everywhere. And just as with internet algorithms, we will all be willing participants. Will it happen overnight? No. It will take time. As I have already alluded to, there has been increasing use of AI for many years. However, the gradual rise of this technology means that policy makers, the Government and the public are not aware of its creeping challenges. Little by little, we as a society are becoming more dependent on it, and little by little it is making life’s many tasks more manageable.

So, which jobs will be affected and—more importantly —when? Let us start with jobs in call centres and fast food restaurants, as well as driving jobs, which, yes, means every taxi driver, every delivery driver and every HGV driver. In total, that amounts to over 600,000 people. Warehouse workers, shop assistants, postal workers, parking attendants—the figure for all those jobs is over 3 million people. If that was it and the list did not expand further into security, education, health and defence, I am confident that a forward-thinking Conservative Government could manage such economic stresses. Yet even when we are discussing the jobs that are most at risk, we must remember that employees in such jobs are often younger people, so our young people’s future is most at risk. One of my biggest beliefs is that the devil makes work for idle hands and the worst idle hands are young ones. A young person with no job often believes that they have no value. Although that is not true by any stretch of the imagination, we cannot have an entirely new generation of young people thinking it about themselves.

I am sure that many people who are interested in this subject are fully aware of the game Go and the experiment to see whether AlphaGo, an AI programme, could beat a renowned Go player, Lee Sedol. For those people who do not know, Go is apparently one of the hardest games in the world to play, with an almost infinite number of moves and, most importantly, no real patterns for AI to follow. Consequently, many people were amazed that AI won the first three games. Personally, I never doubted that it would. Yet what struck me was Lee Sodol’s reaction. When he lost the third game, it seemed to destroy him. To me, he looked empty—a person with no value. Now, if an educated man of that calibre can be made to feel worthless because of the abilities of an AI programme, we can imagine what future generations trying to enter the workforce may feel like as a result of AI.

Lee Sodol won the fourth game, which brought his pride back, despite the fact that he then lost the fifth game. It should also be mentioned that AlphaGo went on to beat every other competitor while playing them all at the same time. To me, that proves not only the infinite capability of AI, but the damage that it may do to individuals, unless we look ahead and consider ways in which we can use AI while still keeping people feeling valued within our workforce.

That brings me to the national AI strategy. Pillar 1 of the strategy, “Investing in the long-term needs of the AI ecosystem,” talks extensively about the lack of AI skills within the economy. An AI Council survey found that only 18% of 413 respondents from the fields of academia, business and the public sector believed that there was sufficient provision of training and development in AI skills for our workforce. Clearly, there is an AI skills shortage.

However, while the strategy mentions the “Skills for Jobs” White Paper, published in January this year, and states that it will work to ensure businesses have the necessary skills to utilise AI technology through the skills value chain, it offers little in acknowledging the huge problem before us. The industries I have mentioned employ nearly 4 million people, most of whose jobs are to be made essentially redundant in the coming years. A reskilling scheme from the Department for Education, here and there, will not tackle the issue at hand and ensure that millions of individuals, many of whom we currently consider skilled workers, will not become unemployed over the course of this century.

If we have learned anything about the levelling-up agenda, it is that people in places such as Don Valley want to have jobs that provide value and meaning to their lives. Let there be no mistake: unless we sufficiently equip huge numbers of our workforce over the coming years, many will never secure work, let alone skilled, meaningful work. Getting this right is key to the Government maximising the impact of their levelling-up agenda. A good start may be establishing a new college in Don Valley that specialises in coding. I say to the Minister, let our economic revolution begin in Doncaster.

That is the employment issue covered, but if AI touches every aspect of our lives, then why not the democratic process itself? We recognise that individuals, myself especially, are not infallible. MPs make mistakes, and Governments too. People sometimes initially vote against what seems to be their own interest, yet despite this we accept that democracy is the best form of Government or, as Churchill said,

“democracy is the worst form of government—except for all the others”.

If we accept that AI can apparently make more efficient decisions, what role does that leave for MPs and even for the ordinary voter?

AI challenges how the state should be run, what the public wants or what piece of AI technology it believes is most efficient. I welcome that the Government have committed to a strategy to work with international partners on shaping international norms and standards relating to AI, which puts the shared values of freedom, fairness and democracy at the heart of the development of this technology. Can the Minister let the House know exactly how democracy will be underpinned through such work? Can he inform those listening to the debate what work is currently being done with the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office to come to an internationally binding agreement that ensures artificial intelligence will not be developed in a way that will subvert the democratic process?

It is important that we begin these discussions now, because the rise of AI is inevitable. We cannot stop it and history teaches us that every move to oppose the rise of technology is doomed. That is why we had an industrial revolution, while the Luddites became a mere footnote. AI is already here and both hostile countries and our allies are using it. Therefore, we must engage with this technology if we are to maintain our position as a leading world economy. It is fantastic news that the Government have begun to think about balancing regulation with innovation in the national AI strategy, yet we need to do much more if we are to avoid facing severe societal and economic destruction as a result of this emerging new technology.

I finish by stating that I know this debate is difficult for the Minister. I will be the first to admit that I do not have the answers to the problems posed, but I look forward to working with the Minister and stakeholders in order to fully utilise the benefits of AI, as well as mitigate its inevitable effects. The Minister will no doubt agree that it is important for us to recover from covid, with the entire global economy in mind. In the light of that, we must work with our international partners, just as we have done to beat covid, to work on regulation of AI so our democratic way of life is preserved.

In conclusion, when it comes to AI, I first ask the Minister and the Department to continue to embrace this technology and work with businesses to ensure there is adequate research and development investment in this industry. Secondly, I stress to the Minister how important it is to integrate AI within the levelling-up agenda. The Government should therefore plan ahead so that young people in places such as Don Valley get the technical skills at college to build artificial intelligence programmes in the future. Lastly, while embracing AI, the Government should be wary of its potential to cause disruption within society and should mitigate any negative effects of this emerging technology.