(1 year ago)
Commons ChamberI have never hidden the fact that we took difficult decisions a year ago, such as freezing the thresholds, in order to get borrowing under control and in order to tackle inflation. However, because the economy since then has outperformed the expectations of nearly every independent body, we are able this time to reduce the tax burden, and I choose to reduce the things that will boost growth.
Let me first declare my business interests.
I welcome the measures to promote more investment and more growth, which is vital. We have lost about 800,000 self-employed people since February 2020. The national insurance measure will help a bit, but will my right hon. Friend look again at the way in which IR35 prevents them from expanding their businesses and getting contracts? The measures to promote the growth of small businesses are also welcome, but the VAT threshold acts as a strong disincentive to expand a business when it reaches a certain point.
I thank my right hon. Friend. I had extensive discussions with him in the run-up to the statement, including many discussions about the self-employed. Indeed, it was partly his advocacy of the role of the self-employed that made me so enthusiastic about making the national insurance changes that I was able to make.
I hear what my right hon. Friend says about IR35. We took our decision partly because of concerns about avoidance, but I am happy to look at that again. As for the VAT threshold, many other colleagues have made the same point. We do have the highest threshold in any major European country, and, indeed, any G7 country, but there is always this issue of the cliff edge, and my right hon. Friend is right to draw my attention to it.
(1 year, 5 months ago)
Commons ChamberI will deal with the right hon. Lady’s specific points first. She says these measures should be mandatory, so why did Labour oppose the intervention power in the Financial Services and Markets Bill that would have made that possible? She said she wants action for savers, and I have indeed been talking to banks about action for savers and will keep the House updated. What she carefully did not mention is that we secured on Friday more than Labour committed to, because our measures provide protection for people who miss payments not for six months, but for 12 months.
The main point is that the right hon. Lady wants people to think she is fiscally responsible and will not take risks with inflation, so why on earth is she committed to borrowing £28 billion more a year when, as a former Bank of England economist, she should know that that will be inflationary and push up the cost of mortgages? Members need not listen to me; they should listen to people such as Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, who said about Labour’s plans that
“additional borrowing both pumps more money into the economy, potentially”—[Interruption.]
The right hon. Lady might not want to hear this but this is what Paul Johnson says about Labour’s plans:
“additional borrowing both pumps more money into the economy, potentially increasing inflation, and also drives up interest rates.”
It is Labour’s mortgage bombshell, hidden in plain sight.
The right hon. Lady does not want people to notice the real comparison here, which is that her party faced an economic crisis in 2008, just as this Government did last year, but we are taking the difficult decisions to restore sound money and the public finances while they ducked each and every one of those decisions, ran out of money and left it to others to clear up the mess.
Given that we do not want too much pressure on mortgage holders, who will be struggling, will the Government launch a series of supply-side measures to increase the supply of things that are short, to promote more home-grown food and home-produced energy, and above all to work with public sector employees and managers to have a productivity revolution in the public services where there has been a collapse in output?
As so often, my right hon. Friend is absolutely right and it is in supply-side measures that we see the long-term solution to the inflation problem that we and many other countries face. That is why the Budget was focused on labour supply measures such as a massive reduction in the cost of childcare—a reduction of up to 60% for families with young children—and it is why my right hon. Friend the Chief Secretary to the Treasury is launching the very productivity review my right hon. Friend the Member for Wokingham (John Redwood) has called for many times, to make sure we are getting better value for public money spent.
(2 years, 1 month ago)
Commons ChamberIt is a pleasure to exchange comments with the hon. Lady and I look forward to working with her closely in the months ahead. I remind her that this Conservative Government are spending £37 billion this year to support people across the United Kingdom with cost of living concerns. That is possible because of difficult economic decisions that the SNP has opposed at nearly every stage, and that includes large support for businesses up and down the country. The main thing I would say to her very gently is that she cannot claim to be concerned about the economic turmoil of the last few weeks when the central policy of the SNP—independence—would leave turmoil for Scotland not for a few weeks but for many, many years to come: a new currency; somehow finding a way to trade with the UK internal market but also the European single market; border checks between England and Scotland, as announced today by the First Minister; and a massive gap in public finances that would have to be breached. That is a recipe for precisely the austerity she says she is worried about. Let me say this: if we want economic stability and if Scotland wants economic stability, to coin a phrase we are stronger together.
What will the impact of these measures be on the growth rate, and will we still avoid recession?
I will publish the economic forecasts from the OBR when I make my statement in a fortnight’s time. I think it is better for me to wait until I hear that. The proper answer to my right hon. Friend’s question is that what we are seeking is a long-term sustainable increase in the economic growth rate. That is a central policy of the Prime Minister, which has my wholehearted support.
(3 years ago)
Commons ChamberI see the Minister wants me to give way. May I make my argument for one moment, and then give way?
There is a plethora of internal NHS targets, there are operational targets and there are financial targets. They often have an excellent purpose, but, as in the case of Mid Staffs and other cases where things went badly wrong, being under a lot of pressure to meet those targets means corners can be cut, and the quality of care experienced by patients can be really damaged. The amendment would make sure that there was discipline in the system, so that whatever pressure NHS managers were under, they were always focused on safety and quality of care.
I pay tribute to my right hon. Friend for what he did as Secretary of State to stress the importance of this crucial work, and he is not on his own: I support him.
(3 years, 2 months ago)
Commons ChamberFirst, we passed the Care Act 2014, which put in place the legislative foundations for the proposals that we are now going to fund. Secondly, I happen to agree with the hon. Gentleman: the social care system has needed more money for some time. That is why it is so extraordinary that his party is to vote against this Bill.
If we are going to take £12 billion a year out of people’s pockets, we need to avoid falling into three traps—and I say this as someone who has fallen into more traps in this policy area than anyone else in this House. The first trap that we need to be careful of is the workforce. If we put an extra £8 billion into the NHS but we do not have £8 billion-worth of additional doctors and nurses to do the extra treatments, the risk is that that money will hit the ground without touching the sides. That is why we need a workforce plan.
The Health Foundation says that the backlog will require 4,000 more doctors and 18,000 more nurses, but we have not had any workforce plan from the DHSC. I suspect that in the short term we will have to relax all the immigration requirements for doctors and nurses. That will not be great for developing countries, but it may well be our only choice. In the medium term, the best suggestion is what my Select Committee and many others have proposed: we should give Health Education England the statutory responsibility to produce independent workforce estimates and create a discipline, a bit like the OBR does for Budgets, to make sure that we are training enough doctors and nurses. That is the first trap.
I will make some progress, if I may.
The second trap is that we must not inadvertently sleepwalk into another Mid Staffs. People forget that when Mid Staffs happened, NHS budgets were actually going up. There was huge pressure to reduce waiting times and that ended up creating a targets culture in which numbers matter more than people. We have to be very careful that we do not make the same mistake again. I know that my right hon. Friend the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, who worked with me at the Department of Health and Social Care, understands that because of his commitment to patient safety.
The third trap involves social care funding. Although the settlement we are discussing is generous, if we are honest, in the next three years social care will not actually get as much money as it needs. The truth is that there is a risk that the NHS will continue to gobble up the lion’s share after that, which is why it is essential to ring-fence the amount of money that goes to social care after those three years.