(6 years, 8 months ago)
Commons ChamberWhat we have released is analytically robust. It enables us to compare with a matched sample, which becomes harder to do as there are fewer single people on jobseeker’s allowance. The reality is that the evidence points to universal credit getting people back into work quicker and ensuring that people are more likely to progress in work.
We have had a number of debates about the roll-out of universal credit throughout the autumn. Government Ministers, including the Secretary of State, said from the outset and subsequently that the system was working fine and going very well indeed, but they recently made a number of concessions. If everything was working so well, why did they make any concessions at all?
(8 years, 3 months ago)
Commons ChamberThat is an important point. Anyone who has met international investors who are considering where to locate their European headquarters, for example, will be aware that they value and support membership of the European Union. Without that, it would clearly be harder to attract some of that inward investment. My hon. Friend also raises an important point about whether we would see a recovery. Evidence suggests that there has been a slowing down of investment due to the uncertainty about our relationship with the EU, but that—the Bank of England has supported this view, if not the IMF—there is likely to be a reasonably quick recovery if we vote to remain on 23 June, and we would see the investment coming back without a long-term detrimental impact.
The north-east is a manufacturing region, and recent analysis suggests that manufacturing is already in recession. Does the Treasury analysis go into the detail of distinctive regional impacts on areas such as the north-east of the shock or severe shock scenarios if we leave the EU? It used to be said that if America sneezes, Britain catches cold, but when Britain catches cold, regions such as the north-east get pneumonia.
The hon. Gentleman raises an important point. The increase in unemployment would affect every region of the UK, and the north-east of England would not be immune to that. Indeed, as an important exporting region, it might be particularly vulnerable. The Treasury assessment suggests that there would be something like 20,000 more unemployed people in the north-east of England as a consequence of leaving the EU.
(10 years, 11 months ago)
Commons ChamberI add my congratulations to those of my right hon. Friend the Financial Secretary to the shadow Chief Secretary, the hon. Member for Leeds West (Rachel Reeves), on the birth of her daughter earlier this year. I welcome her back.
I should also add a word of admiration not only for the hon. Lady, but for the shadow Financial Secretary, the hon. Member for Nottingham East (Chris Leslie). I admire them because, in their speeches today in a debate on the economy, they managed to ignore two points. First, they did not touch on any of the economic data that have emerged over the summer. We heard nothing about gross domestic product numbers, purchasing managers index surveys, employment numbers, CBI and British Chambers of Commerce forecasts or the OECD’s assessment yesterday. I appreciate that the Labour party has had a summer to forget—it has clearly forgotten.
Secondly, the hon. Lady and the hon. Gentleman managed to ignore the economic argument we have heard from them for the past three years that the Government are going too far and too fast. They argued that there was no way we would get growth while cutting the deficit, and that only by borrowing more would we have growth. They also had a five-point plan. As my hon. Friend the Member for Reading West (Alok Sharma) has pointed out, the flagship policy in the plan was a cut in VAT, which would be necessary to get the economy growing again, but that has disappeared from Labour’s platform. We have heard lengthy speeches from Labour Members on economic policy, but they have not talked about their economic policy.
The Minister refers to economic data from the summer months. We saw an increase in retail expenditure in the summer months, but is it any coincidence that, at a time when people have limited disposable income, household savings have decreased?
What is striking about the data we have seen is the encouraging, broad-based signs. The manufacturing numbers are very encouraging. Let us not say that the situation is about consumer spending only. There are encouraging signs in the economy, which was not reflected in the remarks of Labour Members.
(12 years, 1 month ago)
Commons ChamberI am grateful to the Minister and Ipswich Town supporter for giving way. Does he agree with the general thrust of the argument put forward by his colleague, the hon. Member for North East Somerset (Jacob Rees-Mogg)? It was that tax avoidance is not at all morally repugnant and it should be encouraged as long as it is legal.