Living Standards
Debate between Iain Duncan Smith and Lord Watts(12 years, 7 months ago)
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The Secretary of State for Work and Pensions (Mr Iain Duncan Smith)
I am tempted to ask, “Is that it?”, but perhaps I will not.
Yesterday, the Office for Budget Responsibility published its forecasts for the UK economy over the coming years, which painted a very difficult picture: Britain is expected to grow this year by 0.9% and next year by 0.7%; growth is forecast at 2.1% in 2013, 2.7% in 2014, 3% in 2015 and 3% again in 2016. The OBR showed that in 2009-10 borrowing was £156 billion a year. Last year, that fell to £137 billion. This year, the OBR expects it to fall again to £127 billion.
The OBR did not just publish forecasts. It did us a favour, because it looked back and reopened the books on the era of the previous Government, and an important factor emerged. It told us that an even bigger component of the growth that preceded the financial crisis was part of an unsustainable boom, and that the bust was deeper and had an even greater impact on our economy than previously thought, meaning that the effects will last even longer. It said:
“The peak-to-trough fall in output over the recession is now estimated to have been greater than previously thought at 7.1% rather than 6.4%”
That is a huge change to the figures. It found that from near the end of 2010 we were taking a serious hit from rising global food and energy prices.
I want to add a further quotation from the OBR as these matters form the baselines of our debate today:
“Most of the weakness can be explained by an external inflation shock”.
Its third point is that the eurozone crisis is
“likely to have contributed to weaker UK growth and business and consumer confidence.”
Mr Duncan Smith
I hope they will attach no credibility if they were our forecasts. We set up the OBR—an independent body that Opposition Members accepted—and its forecasts are about as good as we shall get, so we should give it credibility for at least trying to get the forecasts right. That is a damn sight better than the past 12 years of gerrymandered Treasury figures, not one of which had any credibility.
Mr Duncan Smith
Wait a minute—I am trying to answer the hon. Lady. She may not like the answer, but I want to finish it. The reality therefore is, yes, of course, but I think that we have done as much as we can to protect those who are in difficulty.
In answer to the hon. Lady, I should like to list a few things that we have done. Bearing in mind the changes we have made to taxation, more than half of those who will be lifted out of income tax will be women. We are investing an additional £300 million in child care support on top of the £2 billion already being spent. There will be 5,000 mentors to support women entrepreneurs and we are creating the women’s business council to advise Government. There will be up to £2 million to support women to set up and expand businesses in rural areas. We are improving child tax credits this April with a £180 real-terms permanent increase in the child element. Next April, there is an increase of 5.2% and a further £135. We are doubling the number of two-year-old kids who receive 15 hours of free education a week. There is also the £2.5 billion pupil premium. I could go on and on. We are doing huge amounts to try to protect the poorest in society.
Mr Duncan Smith
It is all rail fares, but I do not want to split hairs with the hon. Gentleman about whether he thinks it will help his constituency. I think it will.
Pensions Bill [Lords]
Debate between Iain Duncan Smith and Lord Watts(13 years, 1 month ago)
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Mr Duncan Smith
Let me make a little more progress and then I will give way.
We have protected other key areas of support for pensioners, including free eye tests, free prescription charges and free TV licences for those aged over 75. Having quickly put incomes on a firmer footing, we have moved to secure older people’s right to work by taking decisive action to phase out the default retirement age, thereby sending a message that age discrimination has no place in modern British society and that older workers have a huge contribution to make.
Those were absolutely the right steps to take as a backdrop to the Bill, but they are just the beginning as we set about reforming our broken retirement system. At its heart, the Bill is about dealing with the challenge that faces the next generation, who will have to pay for their parents’ retirement while footing the bill for a crippling national debt, even before they start thinking about their own pension arrangements. I remind the House that 7 million people currently are not saving enough to have the income they want or expect in retirement. We need to look at the steps we can take to secure their future.
Mr Dave Watts (St Helens North) (Lab)
Is it not clear to the Secretary of State and the Government that although everyone accepts that there have to be changes, some of the proposals in the Bill are, for 500,000 women, unfair and unjustified? He should do a U-turn on those proposals as soon as he can.
Mr Duncan Smith
As I said at the outset, I will happily take an intervention on that part of the Bill when I come to it. Of course, that requires the hon. Gentleman’s staying for the whole debate, but that is up to him.
Mr Duncan Smith
With respect, I recognise the right hon. Gentleman’s point, and I will take an intervention from his right hon. Friend the Member for Croydon North, but this is a complicated and fraught area that we should not necessarily deal with in the Bill. Beyond it, I am willing to hear more.
Mr Duncan Smith
As I said to the right hon. Member for Birkenhead (Mr Field) and repeat to the right hon. Member for Croydon North, I am always willing to look and to think carefully about what proposals there are—not for the purposes of this Bill, obviously, but in the future. I know that he has written—
Mr Duncan Smith
May I just finish my answer to the right hon. Gentleman?
I am always happy to discuss the matter. There are complications, and there may be some issues about women, too, because contributions are an issue for many women at the moment, so we cannot take these things lightly. I recognise the work that the right hon. Gentleman has done, however, and I am very happy to discuss the issue beyond this Bill, as is the Minister of State, Department for Work and Pensions, my hon. Friend the Member for Thornbury and Yate (Steve Webb). For the purposes of the Bill, however, the right hon. Gentleman will forgive me if I stay to the point that we are going to equalise the retirement ages for men and women. The only question is, at what point?
Mr Duncan Smith
I am going to make some progress, but I give way to the hon. Member for St Helens North (Mr Watts).
Mr Watts
The Secretary of State seems to indicate that there is a potential practical problem. Is it not the case that when someone nears retirement age the Department looks at how many stamps they have paid and how many contributions they have made, which must mean that it keeps track of how long people have been working? That would resolve the problem mentioned by my right hon. Friend the Member for Croydon North (Malcolm Wicks).
Mr Duncan Smith
As I understand it, the pre-1975 data are very patchy and messy. I do not want to get sucked into this debate now, tempting as it is, and never to get on to the rest of the Bill; I do not think the hon. Gentleman’s colleagues would thank me for that. I recognise the issue and I am happy to discuss it post the Bill, but he will forgive me if I do not go down the road that Labour Members want by adding that in all of a sudden. I am not going to do that; we are going to stay with what we have. I am happy to listen to their concerns and to see whether we can make changes in future, but I do not give any guarantees.