Public Health

Huw Merriman Excerpts

Wednesday 4th November 2020 Commons Chamber

[The Prime Minister]

The hon. Gentleman cannot take yes for an answer. Not only will I come to that point later, but my right hon. Friend the Chancellor will be saying more about the matter tomorrow, and the hon. Gentleman can interrogate him.

What I will say, on the point of uncertainty, is that I know there has been a debate about the statistics on how big the loss of life might be and on the precise point at which the NHS might be overwhelmed, but all the scientific experts I have talked to are unanimous on one point. As the chief medical officer has said, if we do not act now, the chances of the NHS being in extraordinary trouble in December would be very high.

Be in no doubt about what that means for our country and for our society. It means that the precious principle of care for everyone who needs it, whoever they are and whenever they need it, could be shattered for the first time in our experience. It means that those who are sick, suffering and in need of help could be turned away because there is no room in our hospitals—even in East Sussex.

[Huw Merriman (Bexhill and Battle) (Con)]

All of us in this place will be concerned about saving lives. What evidence has my right hon. Friend received that we will save more lives by the lockdown he proposes than we will lose from public health, from a lack of jobs and from a mental health crisis? That is the evidence I seek from the Prime Minister today in order to cast my vote his way.

--- Later in debate ---

[Huw Merriman (Bexhill and Battle) (Con)]

When looking at this issue and my vote this evening, I look at the evidence and ask myself three questions. Can our local NHS cope? Have we properly assessed the impact of the regional lockdowns? Which path will be the least destructive to the health and wellbeing of the constituents who sent me here to serve them?

When it comes to the local NHS, the figures today show that we have 24 covid in-patients being treated by East Sussex county hospitals. Of those, a third are being treated in the community, and not one of them is in a high-dependency unit. The NHS system in East Sussex coped fantastically last time, and it has learned lessons. This is another important aspect. It has learned lessons on how to treat people, on the oxygen levels required and on life-saving treatments such as dexamethasone. It has a better understanding of how to treat, and that matters.

When looking at the evidence from the regional lockdowns, I just do not believe that we have given it significant time to properly tell us whether or not they are working. Data coming out of University College London suggests that the R rate is close to or at 1, and the word coming out of Imperial College suggests that it is too early to tell. The daily average has now gone down to 20,018. What that tells me is that we should have taken more time to determine whether the regional lockdowns were working before shutting down other parts of the country where covid rates are low, as they are in East Sussex.

Then we come to the question which path is the least destructive. Again, I have asked for evidence to show that, given the destruction and damage caused to people’s lives and livelihoods, they would actually be worse off if we did not take these measures. This evidence has not been provided to me, and it is difficult to make a decision when we do not have two competing sets of analysis. I have been asked whether I have met anyone who has lost a loved one through covid. The answer to that is, tragically, yes I have, and the heart goes out to them, but I have also attended the funeral of a friend in the past year who took his life, having lost his job. I have met people who have not attended hospital appointments and now have terminal illnesses and who wish to goodness that they had attended them. I have met people who suffer domestic abuse behind closed doors that has not been uncovered. I have met people who have lost their jobs and the roofs over their heads and who have lost everything in life and become destitute. I have also met people experiencing mental health torture from isolation and loneliness from which they cannot recover. Those lives matter, too, and because I cannot see any evidence that there will not be more of those lives impacted than the lives we save, I am unable to support these measures and will vote against them this evening.