(12 years, 9 months ago)
Commons ChamberIt is always a pleasure to follow the hon. Member for Peterborough (Mr Jackson), who has a particular perspective on things.
I want to focus on two themes: jobs and justice. The overall state of the economy is as follows: the Budget deficit is £121 billion; interest rates are 0.5%; and the Bank of England has undertaken £325 billion in quantitative easing. Yet the economy is in a depressed state, with GDP below its peak and its potential. The worst consequence of that is that 2.67 million people are unemployed, including 1,000 young people in my constituency.
What are the Government doing to tackle that? Given the fiscal squeeze on households, it is clear that what is needed is an increase in business investment and exports, but that is not what we are getting. According to the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts, the increase in business investment has been pushed back from 2012 to 2013, and the unemployment peak has also been pushed back. In the north-east, the chamber of commerce says that investment is particularly weak. Shockingly, it has been negative since 2008, and the figure currently stands at minus 6.3. That means that, in contrast to what the hon. Member for Peterborough said, the capital stock is shrinking.
Why is investment so low, given that The Daily Telegraph tells us that corporate balance sheets are “brimming with cash” and the Bank of England reports that dividends are at record levels? It is because there is a lack of confidence. Have the Government done anything to strengthen business confidence? What little growth that is forecast will be fuelled by consumer borrowing. Although Government Members inveigh against household indebtedness, over the forecast period, that is predicted to rise from £1.5 trillion to £2 trillion.
The hon. Lady is an expert in Treasury and economic matters, so I was surprised that she stressed that confidence was so important, because does she truly think that the Labour alternative policy of borrowing more money would give businesses more confidence to invest?
The fact of the matter is that Ministers have overshot on their borrowing. Their borrowing is £147 billion higher than they were planning a year ago, and the credit rating agencies have put a watch on our creditworthiness. Government Members should not be quite so confident about where their Ministers are taking the British economy.
Turning to growth in the enterprise sector, there is to be a measly £25 million for aerodynamics and another measly £25 million for science, which is crucial to modernising our manufacturing. Under the last Labour Government, science spending rose by £1 billion; a £25-million investment will not get us anywhere.
Let us discuss what the Government are doing on corporation tax. They have trumpeted a cut in the main rate, but the reductions in the allowances mean that the net support to industry overall is £200 million. No wonder investment at home is so flat. Government Members claim that GlaxoSmithKline took its investment decisions in response to the Budget, but that is patently ridiculous. GSK has been planning its investments for the past two years, in response to the patent box changes announced by the previous Government before the general election. Everything this Government have done this time has been swamped by the cuts to capital allowances that they made in their first Budget, which took £1.5 billion from the private sector.
I am conscious of the fact that our speeches are limited to seven minutes. I have so much to say in the Budget debate but, first, I shall just answer something that the hon. Member for Bishop Auckland (Helen Goodman) said. One moment she was talking about the importance, in her experience, of confidence in business and among those who do business, and I perfectly understand that, but the next moment she was pouring scorn on attempts to reduce the taxation for those people. I must ask her something, which she does not need to answer now but perhaps she will consider: what gives people confidence? They need lower interest rates, which they have got because of the prudent things that this coalition Government have done to reduce debt; they need stability and the possibility of obtaining funds for investment, and the Government have done such a lot on that; and, above all, they need to know that if they work hard to set up a business, with all the hassle and aggravation that mortgaging their house and creating jobs involves, and they are successful, they will keep the majority of what they earn. We must not forget that that is what growth is about and what confidence is about. We cannot therefore pour scorn on reducing this top rate of tax, which does not work, as has been empirically proven in the figures that have come out. People in business do all this grafting and striving to do what they do, and nothing knocks their confidence more than the fear that the majority—more than 50%, if employers’ national insurance is included—of what they earn will be taken away.
I am interested in the hon. Gentleman’s description of setting up a business. When my husband set up a business, he took a salary cut. I do not believe that what motivates people is just what they are going to earn and how much money they are going to put in their back pocket; it is about being confident that they can sell whatever it is they are selling and that there is a long-term market for what they are doing. The cuts in domestic consumption are what is killing business confidence in this country.
I thank the hon. Lady for those comments. I remind her that I said that the rate of taxation was one of a package of things that gives confidence. I have started and owned a business, and I did not draw a salary for two or three years as a result. I drove minicabs and ran a market stall at weekends in order to pay my way, so I know what it is like, as I have experience in that field. I do not feel it is appropriate to take lectures from people who perhaps have not done that themselves. I am talking not about the hon. Lady, but about many other people who have mentioned these things.
(13 years, 9 months ago)
Commons ChamberWith the possible exception of the la-la land factor, my hon. Friend is absolutely right.
I want to talk about some specific factors that are important to business people, and therefore important to growth. There is a lot of talk about banks and the availability of capital, and about what the Government should do and what they have not done. Again, I want to comment based on my experiences in the constituency. The bank lending situation is getting better; there is no doubt about that, as the loans are beginning to come through. In Watford alone, under the enterprise finance guarantee loan scheme, 23 companies have already borrowed money amounting to £4 million. That is a comparatively small sample and it reassures me for the future that this scheme, which is to be expanded, does work, and that it does so in a comparatively short period of time.
It is very fortunate for us that interest rates are low, but the decisions made by businesses do not change when fluctuations are minor, such as 1% up or 2% down. Their decisions do change when the situation reaches a ludicrous point; I was once left with a loan on which I was paying 2% over base when the base rate was 15%. Variations such as 1%, 3% or 5% make little difference. Again, what matters is confidence in the economy and confidence that the Chancellor has done the right thing today. So I must encourage what the Government are doing on the fundamentals, because people and businesses will want to borrow money only when there is confidence in the future and confidence that we are doing the right thing.
My next point relates to the availability of skilled staff. Despite the fact that 3.7% of people in Watford—more than 2,000 people—are on jobseeker’s allowance and 700 or 800 young people there are not in education, employment or training, I visit factories and businesses that cannot recruit staff of the right calibre every week. A few weeks ago, I visited Davin Optronics, a manufacturing company that uses skilled labour to make lenses—it deals with complicated stuff. Its fear was that its work force were getting older and younger people did not want to join manufacturing businesses. That is a fundamental issue and we have to change attitudes.
How does the hon. Gentleman reconcile that situation with his Government’s policy on tuition fees and the fact that this week children in this country are being told that they cannot take three sciences at GCSE because of the cuts to school budgets?
The hon. Lady and I were at university at broadly the same time, so we were very privileged. We could debate tuition fees for hours, but no matter what one’s arguments on that, the new regime has not changed the current situation and we are, thus, dealing with Labour’s policy on tuition fees at the moment. I would be happy to debate tuition fees with her on another occasion, but the real issue is that we have young people and older people who are unemployed, and we have vacancies in jobs that people will not go into. The Government’s efforts on work experience for young people—today’s announcement on that was tremendous—and on expanding the apprenticeships scheme are very important, as are the technical universities. I commend those efforts because we must have a work force who have the right skills. That is not solely about graduates; it is also about people who are leaving school and are doing apprenticeships and further education courses. What the Government are doing to help will change the availability of staff.