Surplus Target and Corporation Tax

Debate between George Osborne and George Kerevan

Monday 4th July 2016 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

My hon. Friend is right to say that, while taxes on business profits are important, capital taxes are also vital to stimulating investment. That is why in the Budget we reduced capital gains tax—and, with hindsight, that is an even more sensible move than I thought it was at the time. I am always ready to consider further investment allowances, and we have very successful allowances such as the enterprise investment scheme. Of course, the balance has always got to be between simplification and simplicity of the tax system and new allowances, and sometimes people call on me in the same breath to do both things—not my hon. Friend, because he is very clear in his thinking. We have got those allowances, but reducing headline rates is generally the better approach.

[George Kerevan (East Lothian) (SNP)]

With the benefit of hindsight, does the Chancellor accept that his original threat to introduce a deflationary Budget in the event of a Brexit vote was both bogus and counterproductive?

[Mr Osborne]

What I was setting out with Alistair Darling, my immediate predecessor, was the realism that will be required when we understand that the economy, impacted by the vote, will have an impact on the public finances, and then it will be up to the House of Commons to decide how we proceed. It was important that that information was in the public domain before people voted.

UK Economy

Debate between George Osborne and George Kerevan

Wednesday 29th June 2016 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

My right hon. Friend is right to point to the fall in UK gilt yields, but there has been something of a flight to safety. In the last six years, we have made UK Government debt a safe haven in stormy waters, and on this side collectively we can take enormous pride in the fact that we have done that. It is very different of course from the situation six years ago when yields were increasing in the face of economic difficulties, whereas here they have come in.

In terms of the financing of the debt, I have already on a number of occasions over the last six years changed the skew of the Debt Management Office’s debt plan and made sure we have more longer-dated debt than we would otherwise have had. One of the reasons why international investors and others have confidence in the UK gilt market is that we do not chop and change all the time every week, so while my right hon. Friend makes a very good point, I do not think we should immediately respond to the events of the last week by changing our financing remit. Indeed, the message we need to be sending very clearly is one of stability and reassurance. That brings me to the plan I believe we should now follow.

First, it involves ensuring financial stability, and that is precisely what we have been doing in the past few days. In the run-up to the referendum, the Treasury worked closely with the Bank of England and the Financial Conduct Authority to put in place robust contingency plans for the immediate impact of a leave vote. I met the Governor of the Bank of England to discuss it on a number of occasions, and the Financial Policy Committee and the Monetary Policy Committee both had special meetings to discuss those contingency plans. The Prudential Regulation Authority—essentially, our bank regulator—worked systematically with each major financial institution to make sure they were financially sound and prepared for whatever the outcome of the referendum was going to be. The Bank of England pre-announced additional liquidity auctions to support the banking sector. People will have seen this week from the result of those auctions that that liquidity has been provided. Over the last few days, we have been working closely alongside Finance Ministers and central bank governors across the G7 nations and the nations of the European Union to make sure that we are monitoring developments closely and are ready to respond. The president of the European Central Bank updated the European Council yesterday—the Prime Minister reported on that to the House earlier—but it has to be said that the update was not particularly rosy. Let us be clear: these contingency plans were designed to prevent disorder in markets; they were not designed to stop markets adjusting to the new economic reality.

I can reassure the House today that our major banks are resilient. Capital and liquidity remain strong, and this morning we have seen greater stability in the major banks’ share prices, and the currency markets are continuing to function effectively. But there have been significant adjustments, and we have to be realistic about the impact of the referendum on the financial markets.

[George Kerevan]

The resilience and stability of our banks is to be welcomed, but it is clearly at the price of pumping so much central bank money into the system that bank share prices are falling, and the future commercial prospects for our banking system have been undermined. The system is not as stable as the Chancellor is telling us.

[Mr Osborne]

The stability of our financial institutions is there for people to see. It has been assured by our regulators. If the hon. Gentleman is saying that the market is making new assessments about the future earnings of banks, yes, that is so, and it is quite striking that it is banks that face the UK economy that have seen the sharp falls in their share prices, not banks that face the European and international economy. We have to be realistic: markets—free markets—are going to make those kinds of adjustments. We have seen those—the shadow Chancellor noted them—but it is striking that there has been the largest one-day fall against the dollar on record for our pound sterling. Equity markets, particularly the FTSE 250—which largely comprises companies that, again, face the UK domestic market—fell by 14%, and they are now 9% below their level. The particular sectors that have been affected are British retail banking, house building and short-haul airlines, some of which have seen their share price fall by more than 40%.

The Economy and Work

Debate between George Osborne and George Kerevan

Thursday 26th May 2016 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

We have put more money into social care, and we have allowed the precept to be applied by councils, many of which have taken up that option. As a result, more money will go into social care in the coming years. That is what we have done, but we could not do any of those things such as support social care or universities without a sound economic policy. I listened in complete incredulity to yet another speech from yet another shadow Chancellor promising yet more billions of pounds of spending, borrowing, and extra taxes. It is as if the scorching experience of the financial crash eight years ago, and the crippling deficit with which Labour saddled this country, never happened.

When the hon. Member for Hayes and Harlington (John McDonnell) mentioned the record of the Labour Government he kept saying, “Up until 2008”, as if he had forgotten that the biggest crash in modern history was while the Labour party was in office. It is a bit like saying to Mrs Lincoln, “Apart from the assassination, did you enjoy the play?”

[George Kerevan (East Lothian) (SNP)]

Will the Chancellor remind the House of whether he met his deficit target for 2015?

[Mr Osborne]

The deficit has come down by another £16 billion. When I first stood at the Dispatch Box as Chancellor of the Exchequer we had a budget deficit of close to 11% of our national income, and £1 in every £4 that we spent on everything from hospitals to schools and police had to be borrowed. This year that figure is projected to be below 3%, and we are projected to have a surplus by the end of this Parliament.

Budget Resolutions and Economic Situation

Debate between George Osborne and George Kerevan

Tuesday 22nd March 2016 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

If we take no decisions to control welfare spending and public expenditure, we destroy the nation’s finances, and the people who suffer are precisely the most vulnerable in society. Yes, we have taken difficult decisions, but where we have not got them right, we have listened and we have learned. If we had not taken those decisions, the country would be in an even bigger mess than the one we inherited.

[George Kerevan (East Lothian) (SNP)]

The Chancellor mentions security, including for the poor. Does he realise that until Monday, 340,000 people on PIP were worried that their benefits were going to be cut? If he just apologised and changed that, we could move on and discuss the economics.

[Mr Osborne]

I could not have been clearer. I said that we listened, we learned, we made a mistake, and we withdrew the proposals. The hon. Gentleman talks about days of the week, and Thursday would have been the day when Scotland separated from the United Kingdom if the nationalists had had their way. They would have plunged that new country into a fiscal crisis the likes of which few western countries have ever seen. They would have impoverished the Scottish people and driven businesses away. They based all their numbers on oil revenue forecasts that were totally fanciful, and it is time that they got up and apologised for leading the Scottish people into that potential trap. Thankfully, the Scottish people thought better.

Spending Review and Autumn Statement

Debate between George Osborne and George Kerevan

Wednesday 25th November 2015 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

I certainly give my hon. Friend a commitment that we will continue investing in his constituency, which he champions so effectively. We have spoken previously about the enterprise zone at Blackpool airport, and although shale gas development is controversial in his area, it is now supported by a shale wealth fund that will mean money for local communities. He is right to say that north-west England is an area with real expertise in nuclear power, and we have made a big commitment not just on the development of this generation of nuclear power stations, but on the small modular reactors in which there is real expertise not just in south Yorkshire but in the north-west.

[George Kerevan (East Lothian) (SNP)]

The OBR report—at paragraph 1.43, in case the Chancellor has not read it—states that

“there is a roughly 55 per cent chance”

of him meeting his budget targets. Given that 50:50 proposition, will the Chancellor reassure the House that this Budget will not be torn up the way that three previous ones have been in the past 12 months?

[Mr Osborne]

The OBR assesses the Government against our fiscal targets, and that is the point of having an independent fiscal council. May I make a suggestion to the Scottish Government and the Scottish nationalists? Why not get on and create an independent fiscal council in Scotland? It is something they are refusing to do.

Greece

Debate between George Osborne and George Kerevan

Monday 6th July 2015 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

Of course, we do keep a close eye on the situation in Cyprus. A couple of years ago we provided a lot of support to British citizens or others receiving, for example, British pensions in Cyprus when its banking system collapsed.

One of the challenges with people in Greece who receive a British pension but have a Greek bank account is that if we simply stop the money going in, in order to try to protect the payment from whatever might happen, we do not know whether that might disrupt an agreement they have, for instance, with money coming out of their bank account to pay for rent, or for other things, and of course the Greek Government have not so far put restrictions on pensioners in Greece. We monitor this very carefully, and we have contacted a couple of thousand of the people affected to see if they want to switch bank account and offer them a British bank account facility if they want one. We keep this under daily review.

[George Kerevan (East Lothian) (SNP)]

In the light of both the unprecedented and potentially disastrous public attacks by Christine Lagarde against the Greek Government and the referendum result, will the right hon. Gentleman now urge the International Monetary Fund to make available to Greece the some £1.6 billion in profits the fund has made from charging the Greek Government for their emergency loans?

[Mr Osborne]

I do not accept that characterisation of the managing director; I think she has played a very important and constructive role in this crisis. The IMF exists to lend to countries that are by definition in some distress, but it, too, has rules, which have been established for many decades. One of them is that countries in arrears to the IMF cannot receive payments, and unfortunately last week Greece went into arrears.

Greece

Debate between George Osborne and George Kerevan

Monday 29th June 2015 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

My hon. Friend raises one of the challenges we face. There are around 6,000 people in Greece who receive British pensions or British public sector pensions, and around 2,500 of them have Greek bank accounts into which the payments are made. We cannot protect people’s Greek bank accounts in such a situation—that is for the Greek authorities to do—which is why we are contacting the individuals concerned and saying that if they wish to have the payments made into British or non-Greek bank accounts, we will make that switch as soon as we can. We are ready to do that immediately.

[George Kerevan (East Lothian) (SNP)]

I put it to the Chancellor that there is another way in which the Greek crisis could impact on the UK economy: a Greek exit, or even simple market turbulence, could lead to a precipitant and lasting fall in the value of the euro, which would have an impact on British farm incomes because they are denominated in sterling. Will he speak with fellow Ministers to ensure that British farmers in that situation will be compensated?

[Mr Osborne]

It has long been the practice—it has certainly been my practice and, to be fair, also that of my immediate predecessors—not to comment on the value of the currency, and I do not intend to do so today.