Oral Answers to Questions

Edward Miliband Excerpts

Wednesday 1st December 2010 Commons Chamber

[The Prime Minister]

I am grateful for that question. England 2018 has a very strong bid. With regard to the technical aspects, we have the stadiums, the facilities and the transport networks. We have the enthusiasm in our country for football and we can put on an absolutely first-class World cup. I know that many people will ask, “Are you spending too much time on something that might not succeed?” I would say, “If you don’t get on to the pitch, you have no chance of winning.” We should all get behind the bid.

[Edward Miliband (Doncaster North) (Lab)]

I start by wishing the Prime Minister well as he plays his part in efforts to secure England’s bid for the 2018 World cup. As he says, ours is a fantastic bid and all of us will be hoping for a successful outcome tomorrow.

We note that the Deputy Prime Minister is away on official business, and left the country before the tuition fees vote, but of course we understand that he had urgent business to attend to in Kazakhstan and we wish him well in that.

The Office for Budget Responsibility forecast on Monday was hailed as a great sign of success by the Chancellor, but I want to test out what it will mean for families up and down the country. The Prime Minister has been telling us for months that under his plans unemployment will fall next year, but on Monday the OBR said that unemployment would rise next year. Can he explain why that is the case?

[The Prime Minister]

First, I thank the right hon. Gentleman for his kind remarks about the England 2018 bid. I know that the former Prime Minister worked extremely hard on it, and I know that there is cross-party support for it. We need to maintain that as we go into the vital last 48 hours.

The right hon. Gentleman asked about the OBR forecast, which the Chancellor announced on Monday. Let me stress again that these are independent forecasts, published for the first time independently, and not interfered with by a Chancellor of the Exchequer. On unemployment, what the Office for Budget Responsibility found is that unemployment this year will be lower than previously forecast. It has not altered its forecast for unemployment next year, for which it is forecasting a rate of 8%, but it is forecasting increases in employment all the way through the forecast period. Above all, what the forecasts showed is that our policy of trying to cut the deficit and get growth at the same time is working.

[Edward Miliband]

What the OBR actually shows is that growth will slow next year compared with the forecast, and that is what will mean that unemployment will rise. What the Prime Minister needs to explain is why unemployment will fall next year in the USA, in Germany and in other major industrial countries, but will rise in the United Kingdom. Why is that the case?

[The Prime Minister]

I know that the right hon. Gentleman is determined to talk down the economy, but even he will find difficulty in finding depressing statistics in the OBR’s report, because, generally speaking, what it reported was good news for the UK economy. It finds, and the last European Commission forecast report found, that average UK growth for the next two years will be higher than in Germany, France, the US, Japan, and the eurozone, or the EU average. It would be more worth while for us to debate across the Dispatch Box how we get the country’s growth rate up. What reforms do we make to try to make our economy more efficient? Has he got something to say about that, or is it another blank page?

[Edward Miliband]

The Prime Minister asks how we get the growth of the economy up—absolutely right. What we should not do is put up VAT next year from 4 January and cut public spending by £20 billion. That is why the OBR says that we will have the weakest recovery from recession for 40 years. I come back to my point about unemployment. Can he tell us when, over the five years of the Parliament, unemployment will return to pre-crisis levels? That tests the strength of the recovery. When will it return to the levels before the recession?

[The Prime Minister]

We inherited an 8% unemployment rate, and the OBR says that it will be 6% by the end of the Parliament. He asked the question, he gets the answer. Let me just remind the right hon. Gentleman of something. At the last election, the Labour party, himself included, said that if we cut £6 billion out of the Budget, it would end in catastrophe for the British economy. He was proved completely and utterly wrong.

[Edward Miliband]

Mr. Speaker, have you ever heard a more complacent answer to a question? Families up and down the country are worried about their jobs and unemployment will rise next year, and all the Prime Minister can say is that it is some kind of rosy scenario. Let us take the rise in VAT, because that is one of the reasons why unemployment will rise next year. Can the Prime Minister tell us what impact that will have on economic growth and jobs next year?

[The Prime Minister]

First of all, let me deal with VAT precisely. The former Chancellor, the right hon. Member for Edinburgh South West (Mr Darling) said:

“VAT would have allowed you to pay off a sizeable chunk of the deficit.”

That is the policy that the last Chancellor supported.

If we had followed over the last six months the advice of the Leader of the Opposition, we would be linked with Portugal, with Ireland—[Hon. Members: “No.”] Yes. We would not be standing here today discussing how we will get faster growth and lower unemployment; we would be sitting around discussing how to rescue and bail out Britain.

[Edward Miliband]

Okay, Mr. Speaker—[[Hon. Members: “Ooh!”] You can rewrite history for only so long. Let us be—[Interruption.] Let us be absolutely clear about this—[Interruption.]

[Mr Speaker]

Order. We are wasting the time of Back-Bench Members. Let us hear the Leader of the Opposition.

[Edward Miliband]

The deficit was 2.5% of national income before the crisis—the recession—hit all around the world. It went up all around the world; it was a global economic recession. The question is: should we cut too far and too fast, which is what the Prime Minister is doing, so that there are four years of sluggish recovery—the most sluggish recovery from recession in 40 years? Why does the Prime Minister not answer the question? Is this the most sluggish recovery from recession in Britain for the last 40 years? Yes or no?

[The Prime Minister]

This is one of the fastest recoveries in Europe, and the point is, if we had followed the right hon. Gentleman’s advice we would not be discussing recovery; we would be discussing meltdown. He can have a blank sheet of paper about the future; he cannot have a blank sheet of paper about the past. We know we were left a record budget deficit; we remember “no more boom and bust”; we remember all the things that he was responsible for. I have to say to him that, after all that—and he has been doing the job for the last three months—people are beginning to ask, “When’s he going to start?”

[Edward Miliband]

With that answer, it is no wonder that today we learn that the Foreign Secretary describes this gang as the “children of Thatcher”. It sounds just like the 1980s—out of touch with people up and down the country. Why does the Prime Minister not admit that he is complacent about the recovery and complacent about the people who will lose their jobs? And it is they who will pay the price.

[The Prime Minister]

Not waving, but drowning. My mother is still with us, so she is able to testify that what the right hon. Gentleman has just claimed is not literally true, but let me say this: I would rather be a child of Thatcher than a son of Brown. [Interruption.]