Armed Forces: Capability

Earl Howe Excerpts

Thursday 12th January 2017 Lords Chamber

[The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Earl Howe) (Con)]

My Lords, I am grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, for tabling this Motion, and appreciate the obvious wisdom that he brought to it. I also warmly thank all noble Lords and noble and gallant Lords who have contributed to this important debate so powerfully.

It has been said repeatedly in this House in recent times, and it is undoubtedly true, that the world is a more dangerous and uncertain place today than it has been for many years. Despite encouraging advances, the threat from Daesh remains substantial. Russia, as noble Lords have said, continues to show its force through both conventional and novel means. New theatres of conflict, most notably cyber, demand new and complex capability. The transition to a new US Administration has been seen by some as an opportunity to question, perhaps even attempt to undermine, the role of the rules-based international order.

In the 2015 National Security Strategy and Strategic Defence and Security Review, we wrote:

“The world is changing rapidly and fundamentally”.

We cannot claim to have foreseen the seismic political events of the past 12 months, but we recognised the uncertainty and volatility characterising our current era and we conducted our analysis and reached our conclusions accordingly. I align myself with the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, in this area: no Government can predict the future, but we can prepare for the unpredictable. The SDSR presents a clear plan for doing precisely that.

I remind the House of the four most pressing challenges to UK defence and security, as identified in 2015: first, the increasing threat posed by terrorism, extremism and instability; secondly, the resurgence of state-based threats and intensifying wider state competition; thirdly, the impact of technology, especially cyber threats; and finally, the erosion of the rules-based international order, making it harder to build consensus and tackle global threats. The noble Lord, Lord Robertson, rightly warned us against complacency. We cannot be complacent about recent developments in our strategic context, but I am confident that this list of challenges is as accurate today as it was just over a year ago, and that the plan we have constructed to respond to them stands up to scrutiny.

In the context of enduring change and uncertainty, two principles must be central to our response. First, we must plan to be adaptable: the threats we face are varied and diffuse, and we must be ready to respond rapidly and effectively however and wherever they become manifest. Secondly, we must strengthen and deepen our international partnerships and alliances: now more than ever we must place an international approach at the heart of all of our defence and security plans. I will address both of these in turn.

Noble Lords will by now be familiar with the vision set out in the SDSR for Joint Force 2025. We start from the firm foundation of already world-leading Armed Forces. In 2010, however, the Government rightly optimised our forces around the ability to conduct a single, medium-sized, enduring operation, of the sort we were familiar with from Iraq and Afghanistan. Today we face a wider range of more complex tasks and more sophisticated potential adversaries. Joint Force 2025 has therefore set us on a path towards Armed Forces that are more agile, versatile and deployable than ever before.

We cannot plan with certainty for a discrete type and size of operation, so we must plan for flexibility. Joint Force 2025 will have the capability and skill mix required to conduct a wide range of complex operations concurrently, from deployments on the scale of the current counter-Daesh mission to more specialist operations, support for humanitarian assistance, and training and capacity-building with international partners. Furthermore, at the heart of Joint Force 2025 is the ability to deploy a highly capable expeditionary force of around 50,000. That is a step change in our ambition from the “best effort” deployment of 30,000 planned for in the 2010 SDSR. It will fully prepare us for the most substantial challenges to our national security, including a call to war fighting under NATO Article 5.

Increased agility and versatility increases our security. It sends a powerful message of deterrence to our adversaries, and lets our allies and partners know that we are willing and able to tackle our shared problems side by side. This point cannot be over-emphasised in the wake of last year’s referendum. We may be exiting the European Union, but—as I made clear in our defence debate before Christmas—we are neither withdrawing from Europe nor turning our back on the world. On the contrary, I assure my noble friend Lord King, the noble Lord, Lord Campbell, and the noble Baroness, Lady Jolly, that NATO will continue to be at the heart of UK defence policy, and we will remain a strong and influential European voice on the world stage.

That leads me to our second strategic imperative: the need to strengthen and deepen our international partnerships and alliances. In the SDSR, we wrote that our defence policy and plans will be “international by design”. Our interests are inextricably linked to global security and prosperity, and we will continue to play a leading role in protecting global stability. We cannot, and do not, hope to do this alone. It is not just a policy choice but a necessity that we become more deliberate in our international approach across all defence activity. We will build an international dimension into defence planning from the outset.

In practice, that means strong, strategic bilateral and multilateral relationships. The noble Lord, Lord Ramsbotham, was right. This begins with our closest allies—the United States, France and Germany. The US remains our pre-eminent partner for defence and security, and interoperability is at the heart of our relationship. Building on the Lancaster House treaty, we will further deepen our collaboration with France on capability, operations, science and technology, and counterterrorism. Germany shares our aspiration to expand our partnership on defence and security, and we will do so across all areas of defence.

But that is not where it ends. The UK will work to strengthen bilateral and multilateral relationships across the globe. We will build and sustain alliances and partnerships through a more comprehensive approach to defence engagement, which is now a funded core task for the Ministry of Defence. We will build and strengthen combined international military formations, whether with NATO or with partners and allies further afield.

I mentioned interoperability. That is being developed all the time. NATO remains the key vehicle for maintaining an integrated and interoperable military force, and we will work with alliance members to train and exercise together, and to share doctrine, tactics and procedures. We will also continue to develop collaborative capabilities with our key allies wherever there is an opportunity to share expertise and cost in the development of new defence technology. Taken together, and supported by the Government’s global defence and diplomatic network, this will allow us to build coalitions throughout the world in the pursuit of shared interests and in support of the rules-based international order.

Strengthening our Armed Forces and employing a comprehensive international approach to defence is the plan set out in SDSR 2015, and the Government stand by it. However, a plan is nothing without action, so I shall just outline briefly the significant progress that has been made. First, the ambitious plans for Joint Force 2025 are in train. The innovative 77th Brigade has reached initial operating capability; work has now begun on the first Dreadnought-class submarine; the first of our new aircraft carriers, HMS “Queen Elizabeth”, will begin sea trials this year; design and manufacture will begin on Crowsnest, the early-warning system for the helicopters that will protect the new carriers; RFA “Tidespring” will arrive in the UK in the spring for customisation; the contract has been signed to purchase nine P8 maritime patrol aircraft; and July 2016 saw the delivery of the RAF’s 14th and final Voyager aircraft for air tanking and transport. We are already delivering.

Internationally, we have also done a lot to demonstrate our commitment to working with allies and partners. My noble friend Lord King referred to the vulnerability of the Baltic states, as did my noble friend Lord Jopling and the noble Viscount, Lord Hanworth. That is exactly why we have agreed to deploy a battalion to Estonia in the spring and an infantry company to Poland in support of the United States, strengthening NATO’s enhanced forward presence. We are also deploying UK fighter aircraft to contribute to the NATO southern air policing task in Romania.

I understand my noble friend Lord Jopling proposing that we should try to hasten the deployment of UK forces to the Baltics. I was at the ARRC headquarters at Innsworth yesterday and can reassure him that plans for the deployment are well advanced. A careful judgment has been made and it is felt to be well worth ensuring that our forces are comprehensively trained and equipped prior to deployment. I am sure that my noble friend would agree with that.

It is not surprising that defence spending has formed a major theme of this debate. A number of noble Lords referred to the Government’s commitment to spend 2% of GDP on defence in every year of this Parliament. We should not downplay that; nor should we draw what appear to be very easy comparisons. Comparing like with like is, I suggest, flawed reasoning because the nature of defence spending inevitably changes over time. In the past, we have reported significantly more operational spend, such as during operations in Afghanistan. That has changed. New threats also require new spending. We have not historically included any spend on cyber. Therefore, it is right that, from time to time, like all NATO allies, we ensure that we are capturing all appropriate spend, and I emphasise that all adjustments are fully in accordance with NATO guidelines.

The noble Lord, Lord Robertson, warned that we should not confuse percentages with capability—and he is absolutely right. He asked the right question: have we retained the power to act? The SDSR laid out a clear and affordable strategy for delivering one of the most capable armed forces in the world, including an expeditionary force, as I have said, of 50,000 by 2025; £1.9 billion in cyber investment; new capabilities for special forces; and a commitment to spending more than £178 billion on equipment and equipment support—more than in previous plans.

I do not accept the accusation of creative accounting. I will just say to the noble Lord, Lord West, that defence spending is going up. When defence spending will increase by £5 billion over this Parliament, it is nonsense for anyone to suggest that there is no new funding. I hope that my noble friend Lord Sterling, the noble Lord, Lord Murphy, and others will be at least somewhat reassured to be reminded of that figure.

The noble Lord, Lord Bilimoria, the noble Baroness, Lady Jolly, and other noble Lords spoke about manpower, particularly that of the Army. It is true that ensuring efficiency was a driver in force design in 2010, as it was in 2015. However, strategic rationale was the primary basis for the figure of 82,000 regular Army personnel. The figure was based on an assessment of the type, frequency and concurrency of tasks that the Army will be required to conduct. Future Force 2020 described a move away from enduring stabilisation and towards a more adaptable posture. Joint Force 2025 builds on that principle, increasing the adaptability of all the services, including the Army.

The noble Lord, Lord Touhig, rightly emphasised the threat from Russia. We are not complacent about Russian behaviour or capabilities. We remain fully committed to NATO, as I have emphasised, and to our European partners, with whom we will deter threats across a wide spectrum in order to protect our people. NATO has developed a readiness action plan that gives it the tools needed to respond to short-notice or no-notice incidents in order to protect and defend alliance territory.

I understand the call by the noble Lords, Lord West and Lord Hutton, for more platforms for the Royal Navy. The Government share that desire. Not only is our fleet set to grow for the first time since World War II, but its high-end technological capabilities will allow it to provide a better contribution and to retain a first-class navy up to 2040 and beyond. We will maintain a destroyer and frigate fleet of at least 19 ships and look to increase that number by the 2030s, as has been mentioned; and I am sure that we can all take pride in the fact that the Queen Elizabeth aircraft carriers will be coming into service.

The fleet will also be supported by a very capable and renewed tanker fleet. A fleet of up to six offshore patrol vessels will support our destroyers and frigates in delivering routine tasks and will enhance our contribution to maritime security and fisheries protection. I can reassure the noble Lord, Lord West, that the in-service date of the Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier has not slipped, and nor are there any plans for the Prince of Wales, the second carrier, to be mothballed.

The noble Baroness, Lady Dean, criticised my right honourable friend the Prime Minister and questioned her interest in defence. I respectfully reject that criticism. The Prime Minister has a close and abiding interest in defence. Indeed, one of the visits she made as Prime Minister was to the MoD headquarters to speak with the service chiefs. She has also visited our service personnel around the world, including recently on board HMS Ocean in the Gulf.

My right honourable friend is also well aware of the need to invest in security across the piece. That brings me to the subject of cyber, which was rightly emphasised by the noble Baroness, Lady Liddell, among others. Cybersecurity is vital to defence. As she said, our adversaries present a real and rapidly developing threat to our networks, systems and platforms. We are enhancing our cyber defence capabilities through the development of the Cyber Security Operations Centre. As I also mentioned, £1.9 billion will be invested in cyber across government over five years. We are ensuring that our Armed Forces are able to project power in cyberspace, are ready to assist in the event of a significant cyber incident and can respond to a cyberattack as they would to any other attack using whichever capability is most appropriate. We are building a dedicated capability to counterattack in cyberspace as part of our full-spectrum capability. Defence is delivering this capability in partnership with GCHQ through the national offensive cyber programme.

The noble and gallant Lord, Lord Walker, rightly criticised the concept of an EU army. I hope that I can reassure him by saying that no one is seriously proposing that idea. Despite the rhetoric and speculation that we have all read, we have seen nothing to suggest that any major European country wants an EU army. The joint letter published by the ministries of defence of Germany, France, Italy and Spain explicitly ruled that out, and we will continue to resist any EU initiative that risks undermining or duplicating NATO’s central role in European defence.

The noble Lord, Lord Bilimoria, called for greater collaboration with universities. I understand and agree with his point. Our innovation initiative has included the horizon-scanning unit known as IRIS, which will forge close ties with the academic community.

My noble friend Lord Attlee asked about the robustness and resilience of our logistics systems, the importance of which he rightly stressed. I can reassure him that we have the strategic base and associated enablers to underpin SDSR 25 and its wide capabilities. I will write him with an answer to his question on exercise Saif Sareea.

The noble Lord, Lord Burnett, raised several issues relating to the Royal Navy. In terms of investment and manpower, the Royal Navy attracted significant investment as a result of the SDSR, as he well knows. With regard to new assault ships, we currently have no plans to commission any. On the matter of our use of landing craft, HMS Albion and HMS Bulwark provide the capability needed to deploy and sustain the lead commando group ashore, by air and sea. They will remain in service until the end of the next decade.

The noble Earl, Lord Sandwich, raised issues of conflict prevention and peacekeeping. I have mentioned the Government’s intention to be international by design. That is in no small part motivated by the principle of conflict prevention: by working more closely with allies and partners we strengthen our shared ability to prevent conflict and ensure our own security. I can tell the noble Earl that we are increasing our contribution to UN peacekeeping operations in South Sudan, Somalia and Kosovo, we are continuing to support CSDP missions, and we are fully committed to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

My time is up. I shall write to those noble Lords whose questions I have not addressed. I hope that it is clear that the Government fully recognise the breadth and severity of threats that face our country today. We know that in this era of uncertainty we can take nothing for granted. The approach that we have taken in the SDSR is the right one for strengthening our defence and security, and it is the one to which this Government are fully committed.