Police: Performance Indicator Management

Earl Attlee Excerpts

Tuesday 19th March 2013 Grand Committee

[Lord Whitty]

My Lords, I will make one or two of the same points as the noble Earl, Lord Lytton. Unlike some other Members who are going to speak today, I do not have great experience or expertise in this field. With one or two exceptions, my relationship with the police has been generally okay. I am merely a concerned citizen here, in that I really want to know what is happening to crime in this country. Politically, both this and the previous Government congratulated themselves on a falling level of crime. I did not seriously query this claim until recently.

Of course, government and police claims of crime reduction have always been treated with a degree of cynicism by the general public. Public perception of crime rates in all neighbourhoods tends to exaggerate the degree of actual crime. Of course, there are horrendous crimes, which receive massive publicity. Although harrowing to those immediately concerned, as I know, these are probably not typical. There is a general public perception that the level of particularly low-level crime is higher than the police and the Government claim.

Sometimes the police go over the top. I am told that the South Wales Police notepaper says that crime is the lowest for the past 30 years. I doubt that anybody in south Wales actually believes that—nor would people in Dorset or the City of Westminster. There is a credibility issue underlying this, and some of it has a good statistical basis because of the way in which the police record crime as against, for example, the crime survey and the way that victims see their complaints. So there are some rational explanations for it.

However, I was quite alarmed to see that the ONS itself was seriously querying the degree of crime reduction. That is probably where I am. I probably logically accept, despite the psychology of it, that there has been some reduction, but it is the degree. There was quite a significant difference between the police figures and the other figures to which the ONS referred. The ONS gave a number of quite good reasons for this but at the same time I became aware of the work of Dr Rodger Patrick, to whom the noble Earl, Lord Lytton, has already referred.

According to Dr Patrick’s analysis, some crimes are no longer recorded on the basis of reporting by victims or the public but on the evidential assessment of police officers and on the balance of probability. That was always the case with third party reporting but used not to be the case where victims themselves reported. Other cases are lumped together and given the same crime number to appear only once in the statistics. Minor crimes can go unreported altogether: some are on a local crime data list; some are subject to informal caution and are cleared, one way or another, and do not get into the national statistics.

Meanwhile, on the detection side, issues such as “take into consideration cases”, to which the noble Earl, Lord Lytton, referred, are sometimes lumped together as solved or cleared as a result of a deal with a defendant or prisoner, without real conviction and due process. I have read parts of Dr Patrick’s analysis, and I have no way in which to assess the validity of all this or how widespread it is. But it is also true—and this is in the title of the debate—that with some crimes under the last Government there was a drastic fall, following the introduction of targets and performance management criteria. That might mean different things: it might suggest that the target culture was instantly incredibly successful in increasing overall efficiency against targets; it might suggest that the priorities and resources were, as in other public services, concentrated on those areas that were measured and defined as targets while other areas were left underresourced; or it might mean—and this is something that we regrettably know about in bits of the NHS—that figures were reclassified or manipulated to exaggerate performance improvement.

What we need to know from the Minister tonight is two-fold. Does he recognise the figures on descriptions of malpractices in individual police forces to which the noble Earl referred? What arrangements for quality control and challenge of statistics coming from individual police forces are there in England and Wales? Secondly, I recognise that the Home Office and the ONS give guidance to the police on how to record crime, but who checks the compliance? Is it the police authority, the new police commissioners or the Inspectorate of Constabulary? What is the role of the Police Support Unit—or is it the ACPO high command, or the Home Office itself? How does it work and, in particular, how far is it guided, checked and quality controlled by non-police bodies, or is the guidance and advice from ACPO to chief officers dominant? Like the noble Earl, I have some concerns about the role of ACPO in this area.

There are also reports that those who query the current system, whether from within the police force, from community bodies or even from the Home Office, suffer repercussions—they have been victimised or moved to other duties. Is the Minister aware of such allegations, and what would he instruct the Home Office to do about such allegations? I have to phrase this in the form of questions, partly because of the difficulty of proof and partly, frankly, because of the litigiousness of some of those who defend their position. But these are questions that the Ministers in the Home Office and, perhaps, the Ministry of Justice, need to ask.

The present Secretary of State has made two key decisions in relation to crime statistics and performance. First, she transferred responsibility for oversight and reporting of crime statistics after 2011 from the Home Office to the ONS. That is a very sensible move, which will probably pay off in the long run. However, the ONS analysis is only as good as the statistics that come in. Unless we can improve the accuracy and integrity of all sources of information and eliminate natural bias and contrived distortions, the ONS and Ministers will still be working on flawed systems of statistical records, and hence a flawed evidence base. Secondly, the Home Secretary determined that the police service should move away from target-based performance indicators and, in the light of experience, we would probably think that was the right move as well. But local commissioners will still need authentic, undistorted statistics on which to make their decisions. If not, we are going to end up in the worst of possible worlds, where there are no performance targets, but the police go on recording the same statistics in the same way.

It is time that we had a proper analysis of this—the review by the ONS goes just so far. But as the noble Earl said, unless we are confident in the statistics that we receive, bad statistics will distort the basis for operational decisions by chief officers and strategic decisions by police commissioners and distort the very basis on which Home Office Ministers and officials make national policy in England and Wales. We need a new, expert review, probably judge-led, without an axe to grind, distinct and separate from the police force itself, and we need it soon.

[Earl Attlee]

Can the noble Lord conclude his remarks very soon, because he is completely out of time?

[Lord Whitty]

If I am completely out of time, I shall just say that a push for such an outcome needs to start from the proceedings here today.