(2 years, 9 months ago)
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It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Mr Davies. I congratulate the hon. Member for Harrow East (Bob Blackman) on securing this important debate and on his dramatic entrance; it is always good to get off to a start like that.
There has rightly been a lot of talk about the opportunities for friendship, trade and progressive agreements with India. Those matters should be at the forefront of our minds when we talk about engaging with any other country. It is also important, as we have heard from hon. Members around the Chamber, to make sure that when we talk about friendship and being good friends, we are open and honest and call out the things that are not acceptable. I intend to do that in my comments.
The hon. Member for Harrow East talked about the difficulties in gaining a trade agreement with India. The EU has 445 million people, the US has 331 million and the UK 68 million, so there will be difficulties in gaining agreements, and standards must not be sacrificed to get those things across the line. I welcome his comments on protecting the NHS. I hope he will work with me to make sure that the Government pay close attention to not including things such as investor-state dispute mechanisms that could undermine the NHS in future trade deals.
The right hon. Member for Chipping Barnet (Theresa Villiers) is no longer in her seat, but when we talk about being open, we have to be clear about what the situation is in India. Two thirds of Indian people live in poverty. We have to realise that not everybody there is wealthy. Nearly 70% of people live on under $2 a day. That leaves the situation open to worker exploitation. In any trade deal, we must be mindful of that situation.
Hon. Members have talked, quite rightly, about honouring agreements. That is absolutely essential. This Government must reverse some of the precedents that have been set over recent months. They have to show that they are willing to understand and undertake the conditions of international law; if they do that, they will have the moral authority to hold others to those conditions.
It is absolutely right to point out human rights issues in India. I will come on to some of the opportunities in a moment, but I will pause on the point made by my hon. Friend the Member for West Dunbartonshire (Martin Docherty-Hughes) about his constituent Jagtar Singh Johal, who has been held for four years without charge. There are many other concerns, including the filing of criminal charges against students, journalists and private citizens in response to speeches seen as critical of the Government. As the hon. Member for Strangford (Jim Shannon) pointed out, in 1995 the EU agreed that every new trade deal would take human rights as an essential criterion. Will the Minister uphold the same principle, or will he let these things slide, as the Foreign Secretary did with the principles in the deals with Turkey, Singapore and Vietnam? The Minister should tell us.
My hon. Friend the Member for Glasgow East (David Linden) highlighted an enormous opportunity to fix a long-held barrier to exports for Scotch whisky. The punishing 150% tariffs applied to this premium Scottish export have been in place for far too long. The UK Government have been tardy, to say the least, in addressing that. We have seen no urgency from the UK Government to rectify the situation until now.
As we have heard, India is the world’s largest whisky market, and yet the quality produce from Scotland makes up only 2% of that market. Despite that, because of the vigorous marketing of high-end product by the Scotch whisky industry, the value of whisky sales has risen from less than £60 million in 2011 to more than £150 million in 2019. There is clearly a demand and an appetite for whisky in India. A reduction in that tariff would grow single malt exports by £1.2 billion in the next five years and could create 1,300 jobs, but that depends on serious action on tariffs. Could the Minister tell us what efforts are being made to remove the 150% tariff, or what reduction to it is being sought? That should not be a secret. It is not a negotiation issue; it should be something that is simply dealt with.
We have heard mentions—too few mentions—from hon. Members of climate change. This is an absolutely pivotal issue that should be at the front of our discussions. There are export opportunities for the Scottish renewable energy manufacturing sector if the conditions are put in place. The Indian Government plan to install 175 GW of renewable energy capacity this year, and they are aiming for further capacity developments over the coming decades. Currently, however, wind turbine components made in the UK are subject to import tariffs of 15% in India. Scotland has the world’s largest research group of renewable energy experts: more than 700 scientists, engineers and more. That is an opportunity.
Part of the “build back better” slogan has to be good, well-paid, unionised jobs in the UK. The UK can be a world leader in green technology and technology transfer, and it can lead from the front on renewable energy. Does the hon. Member agree that as part of the free trade agreements that the UK signs with other nations, we should encourage those nations to sign up to the principles of renewable energy? Does he also agree that we should use those agreements to increase industrial capacity in the UK and produce good, well-paid, unionised jobs that support our constituents up and down the country?
Absolutely; I am in complete agreement about those opportunities. It is important to underline that climate change was not solved at COP26; some good agreements were reached there, but it is clear that a lot more needs to be done. All those things need to be taken into account when it comes to a trade deal. India and the UK have considerable and long-standing social, cultural and economic ties. India is a rising world power, and it is impossible and impractical to ignore the south Asian giant. However, as I have said, friendly progress should be made with eyes open to the issues that exist.
None of the proposed trade deals, including this one with India, can make up for the trade disaster that is Brexit. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that Brexit will lead to a reduction of 4% in UK GDP. The hon. Member for Harrow East talked about coming back from covid. By comparison, the OBR estimates that covid will only cause a 2% fall, so Brexit is likely to have twice the impact.
According to predictions by the National Audit Office, all the FTAs—those with Australia and the US, and the CPTPP—will increase the UK’s GDP by between 0.33% at best and 0.17% at worst. Brexit has already cost the Scottish economy around £4 billion and could slash Scotland’s GDP by up to £9 billion by 2030.
There are other issues, but lack of time prevents the full exposition of them all. This is a wide-ranging subject and an enormous debate, given the sheer size, scope and industry of India and the opportunities that might be opened up there. However, there are some key points that I want to touch on, so that the Minister can respond to them. These are important things.
In India, produce—rice, in particular—is grown using pesticides that are currently banned from use in the UK. Can the Minister confirm that such produce will never be imported for sale in UK shops? What concerns has he raised with his team and colleagues about microbial resistance, and will he confirm that any FTA will commit to addressing the very real concerns about it? Will he commit to ensuring that there is a robust chapter in any FTA within the legal services text that takes into account the unique nature of Scottish law?
I put those questions to the Minister. I know, and he knows, that he will be asked many more questions about this wide-ranging subject in the coming weeks and months. However, several of the questions I have asked demand an answer—not least those about his ambition for the reduction in tariffs such as 150% on Scotch whisky and 15% on renewable parts, but also those relating to human rights commitments, the protection of UK standards on pesticides and genetic modification, and ensuring that we get an open and honest trade deal that protects the human rights of those involved with it.